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purdue boilermakers vs michigan state spartans-prediction-picks-lines-odds-college football-betting preview-nov 22

Purdue vs. Michigan State Predictions, Picks, Odds, Friday NCAAF Betting Preview for Nov. 22

The Michigan State Spartans (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten) will take on the Purdue Boilermakers (1-9, 0-7) in Spartan Stadium on Friday, Nov. 22, at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.

The Boilermakers have lost nine consecutive games; all hope is lost for this season. Beyond that, there are questions on what Purdue’s football staff will look like next season. Head coach Ryan Walters may feel he is coaching for his job this week.

Michigan State has also fallen off a cliff, losing six of their last seven contests. The young Spartan offense hasn’t developed as many fans hoped, but there is still plenty to play for as Michigan State attempts to become bowl-eligible.

Michigan State enters this Week 13 contest as a 13.5-point favorite on the spread, while the over/under sits at 47.5

So, where’s the betting value here? Let’s dive into my Michigan State vs. Purdue predictions and college football picks for Saturday.

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  • Purdue vs Michigan State Pick: Purdue +13.5

My Purdue vs Michigan State best bet is on the Boilermakers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Purdue vs. Michigan State Odds, Betting Line

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  • Purdue vs. Michigan State Spread: Michigan State -14
  • Purdue vs. Michigan State Total: 47.5 Total Points
  • Purdue vs. Michigan State Moneyline: Michigan State ML -650, Purdue ML +425

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Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue fans could not have imagined this season would go this poorly.

Against four top-20 opponents (Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State), Purdue has been outscored by a total of 195-17.

Now, a blowout loss counts the same as a one-point loss in the record books, but Purdue is a long way from playing competitive football against quality opponents.

The brutal schedule has made its winnable game opportunities more critical, though. We have seen Purdue play inspired football a handful of times in Big Ten, despite their season effectively being over for a month.

The Boilermakers took both Illinois and Northwestern to Overtime before falling short.

Purdue’s only area of semi-successful play has been its rushing attack. Purdue ranks 64th in the nation at Rush Success Rate, and leaning on running back Devin Mockobee has been a successful formula.

Mockobee is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on the year, and he will need a hefty workload this week to keep Purdue in the game with a Michigan State team looking to clinch a bowl appearance.

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Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State is an opponent that Purdue should be able to hang with if past precedent holds. The Spartans have been a disaster against teams of all shapes and sizes during Big Ten play, outside of a win over Iowa a few weeks ago.

Like Purdue, the only area in which Michigan State does well on offense is its rushing attack, which ranks 52nd in the country in Rush Success Rate.

The two-headed combo of KayRon Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter have a pick-your-poison feel, but both have been inconsistent week-to-week.

Defensively, it used to be the rushing defense that Michigan State held its hat on, but that has changed as of late.

The Spartans still rank 31st nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed, but Illinois wore them down last week on the ground. Lead back Josh McCray ran nine times for 61 yards and three touchdowns, part of an all-around day of 138 yards rushing on 31 carries.

Mockobee has more upside as a rusher than McCray, and Purdue would be wise to lean on their star player repeatedly to control this game.

As all Michigan State games seem to do, this game may come down to Aidan Chiles‘ turnovers at the quarterback spot. Chiles has thrown 11 picks to just 10 touchdowns.

Chiles finally cleaned up his act last week, but it should be taken as a major red flag that Chiles avoided turnovers, and Michigan State still lost by 22 points to an Illinois team that Purdue took to Overtime.

Michigan State vs. Purdue Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Purdue match up statistically:

Purdue Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 64 31
Line Yards 23 25
Pass Success 114 115
Havoc 116 119
Finishing Drives 117 93
Quality Drives 122 85
Michigan State Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 52 87
Line Yards 116 107
Pass Success 94 134
Havoc 124 124
Finishing Drives 123 125
Quality Drives 62 130
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 107 59
PFF Coverage 131 123
Special Teams SP+ 117 30
Middle 8 134 126
Seconds per Play 28.8 (107) 29.8 (121)
Rush Rate 55% (82) 54% (88)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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While it is hard to trust either of these teams, it is even harder to see Michigan State winning a game by two or more touchdowns.

The only opponent the Spartans have created separation against all year was Prairie View, and Purdue has perked up against the teams it has played this month that aren’t monsters.

Michigan State may win, but Purdue will make things interesting.

Pick: Purdue +13.5

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Purdue vs Michigan State Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Location, Start Time

Location: Spartan Stadium, Lansing, MI
Date: Friday, Nov. 22
Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: FOX

Purdue vs Michigan State will be played at Spartan Stadium in Lansing, Michigan, on Friday, Nov. 22 at 8 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FOX.

Purdue vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

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Purdue vs. Michigan State Weather Forecast

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