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College Football Odds, Picks for Pitt vs Virginia Tech

Pitt vs Virginia Tech Odds

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We have a battle of the bottom of the ACC on tap as the Pittsburgh Panthers hit the road to take on the Virginia Tech Hokies in front of a rowdy crowd.

While Blacksburg is a great game environment, the biggest factor in this matchup will be the health of each team’s quarterback.

Pitt enters with a question mark at the position as Phil Jurkovec left last week’s game with an injury. For Virginia Tech starter Grant Wells has missed the previous two games with an ankle injury.

As we know, the quarterback position is the most important to the spread. So, with all these question marks, what side should you bet for this matchup?

Let’s dive into the Pitt vs. Virginia Tech odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 30.

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When it comes to the Pittsburgh offense, the quarterback position isn’t as important because the Panthers don’t ask very much of their signal-callers from a passing perspective. However, Jurkovec is a factor in the rushing attack, and fortunately, it appears he’ll be back for this matchup.

Head coach Pat Narduzzi said that Jurkovec will play if he’s healthy, and it was reported on Wednesday that Jurkovec is not in concussion protocol. So, with its starter presumably in place, Pitt will be able to fully exploit its biggest edge in this matchup, which is in the trenches.

The Panthers outrank the Hokies in Line Yards, 40th-96th, on this side of the ball. That consistent push will allow their trio of running backs and Jurkovec to methodically move the ball down the field.

It’s no secret that running the ball is the key to success against Virginia Tech, as it’s 112th in yards per rush allowed. Expect many methodical drives out of the Panthers in this one.

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Much like we did above, let’s dive into the quarterback situation for Virginia Tech.

Wells, who’s missed the last two games, has logged limited practices this week, and this is after he warmed up prior to last week’s games. So, while Wells is trending in the right direction, considering his involvement, he’s truly questionable for this matchup.

If Wells can go again, the offense will see improvement without having to rely on Kyron Drones under center. Drones has averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt this season and has completed less than 55% of his passes.

The next issue for Virginia Tech is that it’s been unable to run the ball, ranking 101st in yards per rush.

The Hokies will have a hard time getting anything going on the ground in this matchup as well, especially considering their offensive line will be outranked, 117th-40th, in Line Yards.

Overall, the Hokies’ offensive outlook is bleak, even if Wells starts under center.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Pitt and Virginia Tech match up statistically:

Pitt Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 40 82
Line Yards 49 96
Pass Success 124 24
Havoc 78 99
Finishing Drives 82 103
Quality Drives 127 60
Virginia Tech Offense vs. Pitt Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 114 17
Line Yards 117 26
Pass Success 95 46
Havoc 64 112
Finishing Drives 85 71
Quality Drives 126 67
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 54 100
PFF Coverage 55 110
Special Teams SP+ 86 51
Middle 8 90 58
Seconds per Play 28.9 (100) 25.8 (48)
Rush Rate 53.9% (77) 49.5% (100)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.

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The injury uncertainty is actually helping us in this matchup. With both starting quarterbacks up in the air, this line has been stuck at 2.5 all week.

However, if our interpretations of reports and coachspeak are correct, it’s clear the Panthers have the edge.

They should be able to control this game with their rushing attack and have the ability to shut down a Hokies offense that’s essentially inept without Wells.

Take Pitt to cover on the road.

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Doug Ziefel

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