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Ole Miss vs Penn State Picks, Odds: Can Nittany Lions Run Away With Peach Bowl Victory?

Ole Miss Rebels vs Penn State Nittany Lions Odds

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It’s time to dive into the Ole Miss Rebels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions odds and make a Peach Bowl pick for Saturday’s college football bowl game.

A taste of the 12-team playoff will come in the form of the 2023 Peach Bowl, as contenders Ole Miss and Penn State just missed out on the chance to play for a conference championship.

Fresh off a Rose Bowl win last January, Penn State has a chance to be the first team to win every New Year’s Six bowl game. For Ole Miss, mammoth expectations are building for next season after dominating the current transfer portal cycle.

Penn State head coach James Franklin came up just short in his quest to knock off Michigan and Ohio State in Big Ten play. The coach has been elite over the past decade against teams not named the Buckeyes or Wolverines, boasting an 84-22 record against all other opponents.

The Nittany Lions will be without the services of defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who took the head-coaching job at Duke. Instead, they will lean on two assistants in Anthony Poindexter and Robb Smith to call the Peach Bowl.

Ole Miss enters bowl season with one of the lowest numbers in opt-outs and transfer portal entries. This will be head coach Lane Kiffin’s second New Year’s Six bowl in four head coaching stops, previously losing the 2021 Sugar Bowl to Baylor.

Kiffin views this game as a chance for Ole Miss to beat one of the elites in college football, a perfect springboard to a potential College Football Playoff run for the Rebels.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

Ole Miss vs Penn State Pick

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The Rebels will be without two major contributors on both sides of the ball.

Offensive lineman Micah Pettus took all the snaps at right tackle until an unfortunate penalty against Texas A&M. Pettus was critical to the rushing attack led by star running back Quinshon Judkins.

The Rebels run a heavy amount of inside zone and power concepts, finding their greatest success over the right edge of the offensive line.

Quarterback Jaxson Dart ran an explosive passing attack that finished 17th in expected points, while Tre Harris leads an explosive group of targets that includes wideout Dayton Wade and slot Jordan Watkins.

Dart’s greatest success as a passer came against quarters coverage, averaging a big play once out of every five passing attempts.

Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has overseen a renaissance in the Ole Miss defense since leaving the same position at Alabama.

The Rebels went heavy blitz on 32% of snaps with moderate success in creating pressure, one reason the nickel defense is top-25 in Passing Success Rate.

While limiting pass explosives was a bullet point to start the season, Ole Miss continues to struggle when opponents reach scoring opportunities. The Rebels rank 61st in Defensive Finishing Drives, falling to 87th in opponent red-zone touchdown scoring.

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Expectations were high for quarterback Drew Allar and the Penn State offense heading into the season. Fast forward to bowl season, and offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich is no longer with the program.

While the Nittany Lions will have to wait until 2024 for new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas, the big question is Penn State’s lack of explosives in the passing game.

Through the first six games, Allar had an average depth of target of less than seven yards per attempt. That number rose above eight during the second half of the season, stretching out to an average depth of target of 11 yards in the finale against Indiana.

Penn State is a run-first offense, leaning on Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to run zone concepts. The Nittany Lions spent 66% of zone reads between the tackles, finding plenty of success.

Outside zone attempts were less successful and are expected to take an efficiency dip with tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu opting out for the NFL Draft.

Neither Singleton nor Allen showed the explosiveness they displayed during the 2022 campaign, although both executed multiple ground explosives in the final two games against Michigan State and Indiana.

Penn State received welcoming news on the defensive side of the ball, as future NFL cornerback Kalen King is in for the Peach Bowl. While no word is out as of writing when it comes to fellow cornerback Johnny Dixon, there may not be a better combination in college football.

Slot cornerback Daequan Hardy will also bring five pass breakups to a secondary that pivots between man and Cover 1.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Penn State match up statistically:

Ole Miss Offense vs. Penn State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 48 2
Line Yards 95 2
Pass Success 35 6
Havoc 70 4
Finishing Drives 16 6
Quality Drives 35 1
Penn State Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 15 86
Line Yards 10 93
Pass Success 59 24
Havoc 3 35
Finishing Drives 3 61
Quality Drives 13 35
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 28 52
PFF Coverage 52 16
Special Teams SP+ 42 20
Middle 8 82 16
Seconds per Play 23.3 (10) 27.7 (81)
Rush Rate 58.0% (35) 56.6% (29)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Ole Miss has struggled to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, ranking bottom-20 in Stuff Rate on both offense and defense.

The loss of Chop Robinson at edge for Penn State may not be as critical to defending Dart and Judkins in inside zone plays. The Ole Miss ground attack is sure to veer to the side opposite of edge Adisa Isaac, but Penn State was one of the most successful defensive fronts nationally against inside zone.

There’s an expectation that Judkins will break off a few explosives on the ground considering Penn State was 66th in broken tackles allowed.

Allar’s success late in the season came against defenses showing quarters coverage. Ole Miss failed to stop explosives in passing downs, particularly allowing targets to make clean receptions. The Rebels finished the season 97th in on-target rate allowed, meaning most opposing quarterbacks made clean passes to receivers in stride.

Even more concerning for the Rebels defense is missed tackles. Allen and Singleton should find success moving the chains against an Ole Miss defense that finished 120th in broken tackles allowed.

Action Network’s power ratings would make Penn State a two-point favorite over Ole Miss at a neutral site.

The loss of Cedric Johnson on the defensive line takes out the best pass-rusher for Ole Miss after he created a team-high 34 pressures during the season.

Allen and Singleton will have plenty of success in creating short third-down distances, while Allar will continue to take advantage of the quarters coverage look used by Ole Miss.

Pick: Penn State -4.5 or Better

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