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NCAAF Odds, Picks for Old Dominion vs Marshall

Old Dominion vs Marshall Odds

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The Old Dominion Monarchs and Marshall Thundering Herd will face off in a Sun Belt battle in Huntington, West Virginia, this Saturday.

Both of these teams fit a similar profile, which I believe may lead to a very predictable game.

Keep reading for a pick and prediction for Marshall vs. Old Dominion in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 30.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Old Dominion Monarchs” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/odu.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/old-dominion-monarchs” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

The Monarchs are 2-2 to start the year thanks to their defense.

This Old Dominion defense has been stout against the run, ranking fourth in Rushing Predicted Points Added (PPA) and second in Explosiveness Allowed. It ranks 55th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, so while opponents can potentially gain some rushing yards on a down-to-down basis, the Monarchs have largely prevented big plays on the ground.

The Monarchs are significantly worse against the pass, ranking 112th in Success Rate and 78th in Passing PPA Allowed. Overall, their defense is 86th in Success Rate Allowed and 46th in Finishing Drives. SP+ ranks this as the 74th-best defense in the nation.

Offensively, Old Dominion has struggled, coming into this game at 121st in SP+ and 106th in Success Rate. While the Monarchs sit 118th in Passing Success Rate, they’ve excelled at hitting big plays, where they rank 10th nationally in Explosiveness.

Old Dominion does run slightly more than it passes, but it owns the 67th-best Rushing Success Rate and the 94th-best Rushing PPA mark.

Marshall will be among the best defenses that Old Dominion plays this season, so I wouldn’t count on the Monarchs to put many points on the board Saturday.

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The Thundering Herd’s defense has carried them to a perfect 3-0 record thus far. They rank 17th in Success Rate and 14th in Finishing Drives, while SP+ rates this as the 34th-best defense in college football — an impressive feat for a Group of Five school.

Marshall is strong in both facets of defensive play but particularly against the pass. The defense is sixth in Passing PPA Allowed, eighth in Pass Success Rate Allowed and 21st in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Old Dominion has struggled to throw the ball all season, and I would expect those struggles to continue against Marshall.

On the ground, the Thundering Herd haven’t been as impressive. They’re still 34th in Success Rate Allowed, but their propensity to allow big runs (120th in Rush Explosiveness) brings their PPA down to 71st.

Luckily for them, this shouldn’t be an issue against an Old Dominion offense that ranks 115th in Rushing Explosiveness.

On offense, Marshall focuses on the ground game, rushing at the 50th-highest rate in the country. It sits 128th in Rush Success Rate but is capable of hitting a home run at any time because it leads the nation in Rushing Explosiveness.

Unfortunately for the Herd, Old Dominion boasts one of the better run defenses in the country and excels at preventing these big runs.

Marshall’s passing game has been mediocre this season, ranking 48th in Passing Success Rate, 64th in Passing PPA and 117th in Passing Explosiveness.

Quarterback Cam Fancher has thrown for just 612 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions on the season with a 0.03 EPA per dropback.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Old Dominion and Marshall match up statistically:

Old Dominion Offense vs. Marshall Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 58 34
Line Yards 38 43
Pass Success 117 8
Havoc 133 29
Finishing Drives 119 15
Quality Drives 131 29
Marshall Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 127 48
Line Yards 132 22
Pass Success 48 75
Havoc 94 50
Finishing Drives 108 33
Quality Drives 111 79
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 34 95
PFF Coverage 70 34
Special Teams SP+ 118 120
Middle 8 102 114
Seconds per Play 24.1 (19) 26.3 (60)
Rush Rate 58.5% (92) 54.0% (53)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Old Dominion vs Marshall” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

While Marshall is likely the better team, as evidenced by this 14.5-point spread, both of these teams fit similar profiles. They both excel in areas of their defenses, while their offenses are below average.

As you can see from our spider charts, each defense has the upper hand against the opposing offense.

I expect this to be a slow-paced game in which both defenses thrive. Old Dominion should limit Rasheen Ali and the explosive Marshall rushing attack, while the Herd’s defense is also talented enough to slow ODU’s weaker offense.

This game will play out similarly to the last couple of meetings between these two squads, as it may be a race to 20 points. Consequently, I like the under in this game at its current number of 47.5 and would take it down to 46 points.

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Cody Goggin

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