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old dominion monarchs vs james madison dukes-odds-picks-ncaaf-betting-preview-saturday oct 28

Old Dominion vs James Madison Odds & Picks: Can Monarchs Keep It Close?

Old Dominion Monarchs vs James Madison Dukes Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/odu.png” awayname=”Old Dominion” awayslug=”old-dominion-monarchs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/jmu_n.png” homename=”James Madison” homeslug=”james-madison-dukes” date=”Saturday, Oct. 28″ time=”8 p.m. ET” network=”ESPNU” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+20.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-20.5″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”48.5″ col2hometext=”48.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+800″ col3hometext=”-1400″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

James Madison welcomes Old Dominion to Bridgeforth Stadium Saturday night for a Sun Belt Conference battle.

The 7-0 Dukes come into the matchup ranked in the top 25 of both the Associated Press and Coaches Poll for the first time in program history.

Meanwhile, the Monarchs have won three of their past four and are 4-3 overall (3-1 in the Sun Belt).

With a pair of teams that play strong defense and love to run the ball, this should be an old-school type of game, and I think the visitors can do enough to keep it close.

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Ricky Rahne’s team has already topped its win total from last season. However, the Monarchs now have their sights on earning a bowl bid with a pair of victories.

Old Dominion’s triumph over Appalachian State had a dramatic finish, which has been a common theme for ODU this season. The Monarchs scored the go-ahead points with 48 seconds remaining in the game.

Just a week before, Old Dominion staged a goal-line stand with less than four minutes to go to preserve the victory over Southern Miss.

This will definitely be a step up in competition, but ODU has shown it’s up for a battle.

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It really is a shame that James Madison isn’t eligible to play in a bowl game or for the Sun Belt Conference title this season.

If not for the NCAA’s rule for programs making the jump up to the FBS level, the Dukes would be in a great spot to win the Sun Belt and contend for a New Year’s Six bowl bid.

The key to the start under coach Curt Cignetti has been the defense, which is second in the Sun Belt in points allowed per game (19.3). This is also the same unit that leads the league in sacks (34).

A stat that stands out above the rest is the fact that JMU is only giving up 36.1 rushing yards per game, which is easily the best in the country.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Old Dominion and James Madison match up statistically:

Old Dominion Offense vs. James Madison Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 62 1
Line Yards 41 1
Pass Success 121 41
Havoc 131 1
Finishing Drives 129 11
Quality Drives 122 11
James Madison Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 121 45
Line Yards 125 14
Pass Success 13 94
Havoc 99 77
Finishing Drives 94 35
Quality Drives 94 64
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 7 107
PFF Coverage 74 30
Special Teams SP+ 115 23
Middle 8 84 62
Seconds per Play 24.2 (17) 27.8 (87)
Rush Rate 59.2% (72) 55.9% (40)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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If you have been following my articles over the past month, you know I’ve backed Old Dominion in its past three games.

The Monarchs have covered the spread in each of those contests, and I can’t abandon them here.

So, my best bet is for the visitors to cover the +20.5-point spread, which I’d play to +17.5. It also wouldn’t surprise me if you could get +21 as we get closer to kick.

This game will ultimately come down to two things — explosive plays and success on the ground. The Monarchs are in the top 20 of Non-Power 5 programs in both Line Yards and rush Explosiveness.

James Madison is the top team in the NP5 in just about all rushing defensive metrics, but the Dukes been known to give up explosive plays.

In a game with two run-heavy teams where the clock is likely going to be running, one or two explosive plays could be enough for Old Dominion to stay within this number.

I also can’t trust the Dukes to cover this big of a spread, as they rank in the bottom half of NP5 teams over the past four weeks in Offensive Finishing Drives.

As long as ODU’s defense continues to hold up, I think the visitors can find a way to stay competitive in this game.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Old Dominion +20.5 (Play to +17.5)” linktext=”Bet ODU Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.401445115&selectionId=6868745&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Brett Pund

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