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Oklahoma State vs UCF Odds & Picks: Target Saturday’s Total

Oklahoma State vs UCF Odds

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Oklahoma State looks to keep its spot atop the Big 12 standings when it travels to Orlando to face UCF.

Both teams are coming off big wins as Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma and UCF beat Cincinnati to clinch its first Big 12 win in program history last week.

Both teams are looking to keep the momentum rolling, so let’s look at the Oklahoma State vs. UCF odds and make a pick.

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Oklahoma State’s offense is built on having a solid rushing attack and Ollie Gordon II has now burst onto the scene. Gordon has firmly put himself in the Heisman conversation after rushing for over 100 yards in his past six games. He is averaging an absurd 7.0 yards per carry and 4.26 yards per carry after contact, which is the sixth-best mark in college football.

However, Oklahoma State’s overall rushing attack hasn’t been that efficient and relies heavily on explosive plays. The Cowboys are outside the top 50 in both rushing success rate and EPA/Rush, but are inside the top 10 in explosive rushing.

What’s weird is that Oklahoma State throws the ball 54% of the time, despite Alan Bowman not being an efficient passer.

Bowman has only a 58.3% completion percentage and is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. However, UCF is most vulnerable on the ground, so it would be in Mike Gundy’s best interest to hand to ball to Gordon as much as possible.

Oklahoma State’s defense has improved over the past few games, but has been below average for the bulk of the season. They rank 126th in Explosiveness allowed and will need to stop UCF’s rushing attack to have success in this spot. Unfortunately, I’m not sure the Cowboys are capable of doing so.

Oklahoma State is 85th in EPA/Rush allowed because it is outside the top 120 in explosive rushing allowed. UCF has one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the country, so it could be a long day for the Cowboys.

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John Rhys Plumlee has had mixed results as a passer ever since he returned from injury. He has averaged over 7.5 yards per attempt, but also has four turnover worthy plays. Overall for the season though, Plumlee has had a positive effect. As a passer, he has a 47.3% positive EPA play percentage.

Plumlee is as his best in the intermediate passing game, which will be effective against an Oklahoma State secondary that is 101st in EPA/Pass allowed.

Image via PFF.

The UCF ground game has been really good this season. The Golden Knights are averaging 5.8 yards per carry, which is tied for the second-best mark in the country. RJ Harvey and Johnny Richardson have been a dynamic running back duo and have combined for over 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Plumlee is also a dangerous runner, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. So, you can see why Gus Malzahn is running the ball 58.6% of the time.

The problem with UCF right now is that it can’t stop anything. UCF has given up 1,122 yards and is allowing 5.9 yards per carry over its past four games. On the season, the Golden Knights are 125th in rushing success rate allowed and 124th in defensive line yards, so Gordon should rack up plenty of yards.

UCF’s secondary has actually been pretty solid and ranks inside top 40 in both passing success rate allowed and EPA/Pass allowed. The Golden Knights should be able to shut down an average passer like Bowman.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and UCF match up statistically:

Oklahoma State Offense vs UCF Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 57 125
Line Yards 90 124
Pass Success 68 37
Havoc 17 102
Finishing Drives 63 113
Quality Drives 35 120
UCF Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 14 48
Line Yards 32 54
Pass Success 36 101
Havoc 51 94
Finishing Drives 65 90
Quality Drives 34 38
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 62 74
PFF Coverage 58 81
Special Teams SP+ 47 106
Middle 8 62 53
Seconds per Play 24.9 (29) 24.3 (17)
Rush Rate 46.0% (109) 58.6% (22)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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There should be a lot of points scored on Saturday afternoon. These offenses are both playing at a top-30 pace in terms of seconds per play and each have major advantages on the ground.

With both defenses getting absolutely torched on the ground, I don’t really see a scenario in which there isn’t at least 500 rushing yards in this game. This is a bad spot for Oklahoma State as it’s coming off a huge emotional win. Naturally, this would be a good time to bet UCF, but the Golden Knights have no shot at stopping Gordon.

As a result, I like the value on Over 64.5 points (FanDuel).

Pick: Over 64.5 

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Brad Cunningham

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