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Notre Dame vs Georgia Predictions, Picks, College Football Playoff Odds for the Sugar Bowl

Editor’s Note: Wednesday’s Sugar Bowl between Notre Dame and Georgia has been postponed to Thursday night, according to a report from WSB-TV and Action Network’s Brett McMurphy.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1) take on the Georgia Bulldogs (11-2, 6-2 SEC) in the Sugar Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 8:45 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The first version of the Sugar Bowl came in 1935, becoming a staple of bowl season in New Orleans for nearly a century.

The game moved from Tulane Stadium to the Louisiana Superdome in 1975 and has since become a home for a bowl-bound SEC team.

After serving as a College Football Playoff semifinal several times, the game will serve as this year’s CFP quarterfinal matchup between Georgia and Notre Dame.

The Bulldogs have had as many highs and lows as an average person owning a token in the crypto market. Head coach Kirby Smart entered the season with just two losses over three years, losing twice this season to Ole Miss and Alabama.

Two wins against Texas served as the catapult to get the Bulldogs into the playoff, the first win in Austin and the second during the SEC Championship.

Notre Dame last saw Georgia in 2019, but plenty has changed since the pre-pandemic game. Led by head coach Marcus Freeman, the Irish looted LSU’s offensive coordinator and the transfer portal for a mobile quarterback. Notre Dame has the most potent rushing attack in the nation.

Georgia enters the Sugar Bowl as a slight 1-point favorite with a 45.5-point over/under. The winner will advance to the Orange Bowl for a showdown against the Fiesta Bowl winner of Penn State and Boise State.

Read on for our Notre Dame vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks for the Sugar Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinal on January 1.

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  • Notre Dame vs. Georgia Pick: Notre Dame +1

My Georgia vs. Notre Dame best bet is on the Fighting Irish to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Notre Dame vs Georgia Odds, Lines

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  • Notre Dame vs Georgia Point Spread: Notre Dame -1 (-105) · Georgia +1 (-115)
  • Notre Dame vs Georgia Total: Over/Under 45
  • Notre Dame vs Georgia Moneyline: Notre Dame -110 · Georgia -110

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Inside Zone a Key

Notre Dame wants to establish the run.

Quarterback Riley Leonard works in tandem with running backs Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love to form one of the most hostile ground attacks in the nation. Using a heavy amount of inside zone, the Irish have posted a 56% Success Rate and an 18% Big Play rate against opponents this season.

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Once Notre Dame pivots to straight handoffs and man-blocking concepts for the offensive line, the explosive play and success rate have boomed for the Irish offense.

Georgia ranks 36th in Rush Efficiency allowed but just 62nd in Stuff Rate. Meanwhile, the Irish offensive line has dominated in short yardage, ranking 16th in Stuff Rate allowed with the possibility of getting a critical piece back at blindside tackle.

Preseason true freshman All-American left tackle Charles Jagusah never made it to the field with a torn pectoral but is now a full participant in practice for the Sugar Bowl.

Conversely, Notre Dame’s defense struggled to stop inside zone, posting a 43% Success Rate against the concept — for example, USC averaged 7.5 yards per attempt with very few stuffs at the line of scrimmage against the Irish.

Notre Dame will play without interior defender Rylie Mills, which is a blow to a defensive line that just returned Howard Cross III.

The good news for Notre Dame is that the Irish defense ranks in the top 10 nationally in red-zone efficiency.

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Georgia Bulldogs Betting Preview: Importance of Health

Georgia has always been a defense-first team, but coordinator Glenn Schumann has opted for the opposite of the “bend-don’t-break” model this season.

The Bulldogs play aggressively to force an early 3-and-out or a turnover. Otherwise, they generally allow opponents to walk down the field and score.

Health has been a big issue for the Georgia defense. The Bulldogs were uber-healthy in both matchups against Texas and looked dominant. Conversely, a shorthanded stop unit allowed 30 first-half points on the road against Alabama.

Mobile quarterbacks have given Georgia’s defense fits — Georgia Tech’s Haynes King ran for 110 yards and three scores in the in-state rivalry game.

Despite the issues, Smart still led the Bulldogs to another SEC Championship and a playoff appearance.

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Gunner Stockton has taken over as quarterback after a season-ending injury to Carson Beck. The second-year quarterback provided immediate offense with mobility but recorded an interception against the Longhorns through 16 passing attempts.

Georgia’s biggest chore is finding chemistry between Stockton and the targets. Georgia leads the nation in drops, accumulating 20 from the team’s three top targets: Dillon Bell, Dominic Lovett and Arian Smith. The drops have been consistent throughout the season, with at least two in recent games against Texas, Georgia Tech and UMass.

The good news is that running back Trevor Etienne is fully healthy. Georgia prefers a heavy amount of inside zone play with a high 61% Success Rate.

The Florida transfer returned in the SEC Championship after a five-week layoff, recording 94 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The offensive line has struggled in short-yardage attempts, sinking outside the top 35 teams nationally in Success Rate.

A boost from Etienne on inside zone runs could be a tough ask for the injured Irish defensive interior.

Notre Dame vs Georgia Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and Georgia match up statistically:

Notre Dame Offense vs. Georgia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 24 36
Line Yards 13 38
Pass Success 45 31
Havoc 21 74
Finishing Drives 5 19
Quality Drives 22 58
Georgia Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 37 83
Line Yards 81 71
Pass Success 18 1
Havoc 34 31
Finishing Drives 13 4
Quality Drives 36 4
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 17 14
PFF Coverage 2 68
Special Teams SP+ 101 7
Middle 8 1 21
Seconds per Play 28.5 (109) 24.6 (26)
Rush Rate 57% (39) 45% (112)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Georgia will have an advantage against Notre Dame through inside zone runs, but that might be the only way the Bulldogs can move the ball.

USC ran a similar concept for 7.5 yards per play against Notre Dame earlier this season, but possessions were limited to turnover on downs and a pick-six.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs should chew up yards and get into scoring position, but Notre Dame’s an elite red-zone defense that should keep Georgia from scoring at will.

More importantly, I don’t know how Georgia stops Riley Leonard.

The Bulldogs give up too many Quality Drives to mobile quarterbacks, and Leonard’s Irish rank in the top 25 in the state on offense because he’s among the nation’s best-rushing quarterbacks (474 yards and 15 touchdowns on designed attempts).

Georgia does not have the best track record against quarterbacks with this ability, including:

  • Georgia Tech’s Haynes King: 24 rushes, 110 yards, 3 touchdowns
  • UMass’ AJ Haston: 3 attempts, 50 yards
  • Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart: 8 attempts, 50 yards
  • Alabama’s Jalen Milroe: 16 attempts, 117 yards, 2 touchdowns

If Georgia can force Notre Dame into passing downs, Leonard’s found chemistry with former walk-on receiver Jordan Faison.

Faison’s dealt with an ankle injury all year but snagged seven receptions on nine targets for 12.7 yards per reception once fully healthy against Indiana.

Action Network projects this game as a pick’em, but Notre Dame’s rushing attack should roll over Georgia’s interior defensive line.

While the Bulldogs have those same advantages, the Irish have shut down opponents in the red zone.

Look for Etienne to boost a Georgia offense that has had trouble with the opening script all season. The Bulldogs boast a negative scoring differential in the first quarter, ranking 92nd nationally. Meanwhile, the Irish offense ranks eighth through the first 15 minutes.

A healthier offensive line for Notre Dame could give Georgia’s second-level defenders fits.

Pick: Notre Dame +1 or Better · Trevor Etienne First-Quarter Rushing Props

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Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Kickoff Time: 8:45 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN

Notre Dame vs Georgia will be played at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Wednesday, Jan. 1 at 8:45 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN.

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