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notre dame fighting irish vs duke blue devils-odds-predictions-picks-betting-ncaaf-saturday september 30

Notre Dame vs Duke Odds, Prediction & Picks | Bet This Underdog

Notre Dame vs Duke Odds

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Notre Dame heads on the road for its first big test away from South Bend when the Irish battle undefeated Duke on Saturday night.

Last week, the Irish (4-1) lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer against Ohio State in what has been one of the games of the year thus far. Sam Hartman and company still have a shot at the College Football Playoff, but they need a win in Durham on Saturday night to keep those hopes alive.

Duke is off to one of the best starts in program history, sitting at 4-0 with a win over Clemson in Week 1. The Blue Devils were one of the dark horses to win the ACC, and with Clemson already having two losses in conference play, they may very well be in pole position.

While this game doesn’t matter for the conference standings, Duke will still be motivated to beat one of the blue bloods of college football.

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Hartman has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football for a few years now after putting up fantastic numbers for Wake Forest. This season has been no different, as he has an 84.8 PFF passing grade and an 81.0% adjusted completion percentage while averaging 10.6 yards per attempt.

However, in the two games Notre Dame has played against decent defenses — NC State and Ohio State — he had a PFF passing grade below 70.

Hartman, however, has Norte Dame’s attack inside the top 10 in both Passing Success Rate and EPA/Pass, but again, a lot of that came against Navy, Tennessee State and Central Michigan.

Marcus Freeman’s defense, which has been solid this season, allowed only 17 points to Ohio State. But the Buckeyes still moved the ball. Ohio State averaged 5.6 yards per play and had five drives end inside the Irish’s 40-yard line — it just couldn’t capitalize on those opportunities.

Notre Dame had a lot of returning players on defense this season, but in its first big test against a good rushing attack, Ohio State averaged 4.7 yards per carry. So, Duke should be able to run the ball.

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With Riley Leonard under center, the Blue Devils offense has been terrific. Duke averages 6.3 yards per play while ranking 20th in Success Rate and 17th in EPA/Play.

With a lot of options in their running game, the Blue Devils are moving the ball on the ground incredibly well. They have a two-running back system with Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore, and both are averaging more than five yards per carry.

Waters is a bruiser who’s averaging 4.41 yards per carry after contact — one of the best marks in the nation — while also recording seven rushing touchdowns in four games.

Then there’s Leonard, who is averaging 8.2 yards per carry and has an 88.2 PFF rushing grade with 19 missed tackles forced.

All of that has Duke ranked inside the top 20 in EPA/Rush and Rushing Explosiveness, which is big for a team that runs the ball almost 57% of the time.

Leonard has also been a very efficient passer. He’s averaging just 7.7 yards per attempt, but that’s by design. Duke likes to use a lot of short passes, with over 60% of Leonard’s attempts coming within 10 yards. He owns an adjusted completion percentage of 91% in this system.

Clemson has been the defense’s only real test this season. The Blue Devils have allowed teams to gain yards — they rank outside the top 100 in Success Rate Allowed — but they’re not letting anybody score efficiently once they get inside their territory. Duke ranks eighth in Finishing Drives Allowed and second in Quality Drives Allowed.

A lot of that has to do with how good the secondary has been. Duke has held opponents to just 4.4 yards per attempt while owning the second-best PFF coverage grade and ranking 13th in EPA/Pass Allowed.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and Duke match up statistically:

Notre Dame Offense vs. Duke Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 16 99
Line Yards 55 84
Pass Success 10 3
Havoc 9 26
Finishing Drives 3 8
Quality Drives 15 2
Duke Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 39 25
Line Yards 43 31
Pass Success 8 14
Havoc 18 64
Finishing Drives 20 26
Quality Drives 25 22
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 84 26
PFF Coverage 44 2
Special Teams SP+ 108 52
Middle 8 67 39
Seconds per Play 30.2 (119) 28.7 (95)
Rush Rate 57.4% (27) 56.6% (35)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Even though it hasn’t played a tough schedule, the Duke defense has been balling.

It ranks top-five in explosive plays allowed, which is massive against a quarterback in Hartman who’s averaging more than 10 yards per attempt and has Notre Dame in the top five in passing explosiveness.

Meanwhile, the Duke rushing attack is dynamic with three different players who can hurt opponents.

Notre Dame had an average showing against Ohio State last weekend, but that was at home. This is on the road in Durham, where Duke has already beaten a preseason top-10 team in Clemson.

I only have Notre Dame projected as a -2.7 favorite, so I like the value on Duke at +5.5 or better.

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