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Northwestern vs. Washington Prediction, Odds, Picks: Week 4 College Football Betting Preview

After a crushing Apple Cup loss, the Washington Huskies (2-1) get back on the field for their first Big Ten game on Saturday when they host the Northwestern Wildcats (2-1).

This game kicks off at 7 p.m. ET on FS1.

The Wildcats beat down Eastern Illinois, 31-7, in their last game. On the other side, Washington lost to Washington State last week after winning the first two weeks.

Washington is still favored despite that loss, though, as its -10.5 on the spread with a total sitting at 42.5. The Huskies are -426 on the moneyline, as well.

This all-purple matchup may not be the most anticipated Big Ten game of the weekend, but it will still have an impact on how the league plays out.

Check out my Northwestern vs. Washington prediction and pick before kickoff on Saturday afternoon.

Northwestern vs. Washington Odds, Spread, Pick

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  • Washington vs. Northwestern Pick: Washington -12

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Northwestern Wildcats Football

Northwestern embarks on its second season under head coach David Braun. It surprised folks with an 8-5 campaign in 2023, but the Wildcats haven’t looked too impressive so far this season.

They beat Miami of Ohio by a touchdown in Week 1, lost to Duke in overtime, then pulled away from FCS Eastern Illinois last weekend. Wildcats quarterback Mike Wright hasn’t played that well to start the season, completing 57.6% of his passes for 354 yards and one interception, which led Northwestern to play Jack Lausch against Eastern Illinois.

Lausch played well in that game with 227 passing yards and two touchdowns, along with 62 rushing yards, but it’s hard to truly judge his performance against an FCS team. In all, the Wildcats are 101st in passing success rate and 126th in finishing drives, so this passing attack still has a long way to go.

Northwestern has been pretty good at running the ball, particularly running back Cam Porter, who powers the offense with 234 rushing yards and three scores while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. His efforts are a big reason why the Wildcats are a respectable 64th in rushing success rate.

On the defensive end, Northwestern has generally been effective, allowing 13.0 points per game. Sure, that number comes against weak teams in the non-conference schedule, but it at least shows that the Wildcats are well coached and in the right positions. Northwestern is 20th in rushing success rate allowed and 15th in allowing finishing drives.

Washington Huskies Football

Most of the Washington team and coaching staff that went to the National Championship Game is gone, leaving a new group of Huskies to compete in the Big Ten.

New head coach Jedd Fisch and his team will be looking to turn the page after a rough Apple Cup loss last weekend, and a conference home opener could serve as the perfect remedy.

Washington has proven it can move the ball as its 478.3 yards per game rank 20th in the country. Even in an ugly 24-19 loss to Washington State, the Huskies out-gained the Cougars 452-381.

Former Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers has fit in well in Seattle with 825 yards and six touchdown passes, with Giles Jackson, Denzel Boston and Decker DeGraaf serving as his main targets. It also helps to have a bowling ball of a running back in Jonah Coleman, who has rushed for 306 yards and three touchdowns (7.5 ypc).

Fisch’s offense seems to have good bones with those players leading the charge. The Huskies are eighth in rushing success rate, 20th in passing success rate and 19th in offensive EPA per play.

Washington’s defense took a step back against WSU, primarily due to giving up two long touchdown runs to Cougars quarterback John Mateer. Those runs are part of the reason why Washington is 69th in rushing success allowed.

The rest of Washington’s defensive metrics look pretty good. The Huskies are fifth in passing success rate allowed, give up 12.0 points per game, have nine sacks and boast the best PFF tackling grade.

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Washington vs. Northwestern Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northwestern and Washington match up statistically:

Northwestern Offense vs. Washington Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 64 69
Line Yards 105 71
Pass Success 101 5
Havoc 98 42
Finishing Drives 126 24
Quality Drives 63 50
Washington Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 8 20
Line Yards 6 61
Pass Success 20 58
Havoc 71 43
Finishing Drives 53 15
Quality Drives 33 35
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 15 1
PFF Coverage 57 45
Special Teams SP+ 81 25
Middle 8 46 28
Seconds per Play 28.3 (78) 28.6 (92)
Rush Rate 52% (69) 49% (90)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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This seems like a tough spot for Northwestern. The Wildcats’ offense is the worst unit in the game, and a more talented Washington team should be extra motivated to get back on track after its Apple Cup loss.

The Huskies are a big favorite for a reason, and the advanced metrics back it up. Take Washington to cover in its first Big Ten home game.

Pick: Washington -10.5 (Play to -11)

How to Watch Northwestern vs. Washington

Location: Husky Stadium
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21
Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: FS1

Northwestern vs. Washington Betting Trends

  • Northwestern is 1-2 against the spread in its first three games of the season.
  • The total has gone over in two of Northwestern’s three games.
  • Washington is 1-2 ATS in its three games.
  • The total has gone over in zero of Washington’s two games.

Washington vs. Northwestern Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226699″ date=”2024-09-21″][/gameforecast]

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