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north carolina vs virginia-prediction-pick-odds-saturday-october 26

North Carolina vs Virginia Predictions, Picks, Odds, How to Watch for College Football Saturday

North Carolina (3-4) travels to take on Virginia (4-3) on Saturday, October 26.

The game kicks off at 12:00 PM ET and can be seen live on The CW Network.

Virginia is pegged as a 4-point favorite in the contest with an over/under set at 59.5.

While of lesser magnitude than many of the other higher-profile traditional ACC rivalries, these two foes do not like each other. This matchup is dubbed “The South’s Oldest Rivalry.”

Read on for our North Carolina vs Virginia predictions and college football picks for Saturday.

North Carolina vs Virginia Odds, Spread, Pick

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  • North Carolina vs Virginia spread: Virginia -4
  • North Carolina vs Virginia total: 58.5 points
  • North Carolina vs Virginia moneyline: Virginia -155
  • North Carolina vs Virginia pick: Virginia -4

My North Carolina vs Virginia best bet is on the Cavs spread, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

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North Carolina Football

UNC comes in reeling from four straight losses that extinguished the flames on another potentially promising season.

While the Tar Heels had high hopes after the first several contests, the defense has been consistently negative for this group over the last month.

There is no sugarcoating the numbers, as UNC gave up 70 points to JMU and blew a 20-point lead against rival Duke.

The Heels gave up over 500 yards to both Pitt and Georgia Tech, failing to get stops on crucial drives.

The run defense has been particularly abhorrent. Georgia Tech piled up 370 rushing yards at 7.7 YPC last week while consistently forcing missed tackles at the point of attack.

It’ll be a long afternoon for UNC if the Heels don’t shore up the defense.

Virginia Football

Virginia comes in from back-to-back losses against stiff competition in Louisville and Clemson — although the Cavs competed well in both games.

Virginia out-gained Louisville and held a lead until the closing minutes. The Cavs also scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns against Clemson last week.

Quarterback Anthony Colandrea is playing well, completing 63% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to only four interceptions.

This could be a must-win game for the Cavs, as earning a bowl game is super important to this program, and there are very few sure wins left for the remainder of the year.

North Carolina vs Virginia Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Carolina and Virginia match up statistically:

North Carolina Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 38 90
Line Yards 23 108
Pass Success 98 112
Havoc 57 108
Finishing Drives 41 89
Quality Drives 77 99
Virginia Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 66 96
Line Yards 33 121
Pass Success 82 93
Havoc 39 96
Finishing Drives 86 79
Quality Drives 76 100
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 43 48
PFF Coverage 107 60
Special Teams SP+ 46 66
Middle 8 112 42
Seconds per Play 24.4 (18) 25.6 (36)
Rush Rate 52% (84) 52% (82)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I’m laying it with the Cavs.

It’s impossible to overstate how bad the defense has played. The offense is beginning to pick up the pace behind Colandrea and running backs Xavier Brown and Kobe Pace. Plus, they have an electric wide receiver room led by Malachi Fields.

Still, the Heels rank 131st nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate allowed and 88th in Passing Downs Explosiveness allowed. They can’t get off the field in crucial situations and regress each week.

The Virginia offensive line should hold up here and give Colandrea time to find open receivers downfield against a weak North Carolina secondary.

On the other side of the ball, North Carolina will rely heavily on quarterback Jacolby Criswell, who has played well in the starting spot.

The offensive line may struggle against Virginia’s front seven, which has done well to limit explosive rushes. The Cavaliers secondary is also playing well, as the team ranks 14th nationally in Pass Explosiveness allowed.

The North Carolina defense can be feast or famine. The Heels move the ball on offense but allow plenty of negative plays, including 14 sacks so far.

I expect a back-and-forth game, but I don’t trust North Carolina’s defense in critical moments. Meanwhile, I like the fight we’ve seen from Virginia’s offense, and I expect the team’s best performance of the season.

Pick: Virginia -4

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North Carolina vs Virginia Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch

Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26
Kickoff Time: 12 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: The CW

North Carolina vs Virginia will be played at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia, on Saturday, Oct. 26 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on The CW.

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North Carolina vs Virginia Weather

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