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West Virginia vs UNC Odds, Pick & Prediction | Duke’s Mayo Bowl Betting Guide

West Virginia vs UNC Odds

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This bowl season is a much different animal than what we are accustomed to.

With players constantly opting out for the transfer portal or NFL Draft, it has become a lot more difficult to figure out who’s playing for both sides.

This matchup is no different with some significant players sitting out for both North Carolina and West Virginia.

That being said, there are still plenty of talented players and there’s a spread and a total for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, so there’s a handicap to make.

Let’s discuss where the betting value lies in this battle between the Tar Heels and the Mountaineers.

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WVU has nowhere near as many opt-outs as UNC, but there are some notables to mention.

Defensive lineman Mike Lockhart and safety Hershey McLaurin have both entered the transfer portal, and both played over 300 snaps this season. Also of note, stud center Zach Frazier was injured in the regular-season finale against Baylor and won’t be able to play in this one.

There are a few other depth pieces that will be unavailable for Neal Brown, but it sounds like most other starters will be a go for the Mountaineers.

The West Virginia offense, led by Garrett Greene, was one of the pleasant surprises in the country, and Greene has announced his intentions to return to Morgantown next year.

Greene and running backs CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White combine to form a very explosive ground attack that should be in for a big night. Now, Donaldson is out with an injury, but White still ran for 792 yards on 8.2 yards per carry this season.

The WVU defense has hardly been dominant, but there should be plenty of opportunity to create negative plays against a UNC offense with loads of moving parts.

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The first headline that needs to be discussed when looking at the Tar Heels is the status of Drake Maye. The soon-to-be top-five pick has announced that he will declare for the 2024 NFL Draft and won’t play in this game.

Maye will go down as a Tar Heel great and has shattered plenty of UNC’s all-time passing records.

In addition to Maye, Carolina will also be without stud wide receiver Tez Walker, starting center Corey Gaynor and starting linebacker Cedric Gray, all of whom have declared for the NFL Draft.

Beyond that, there are other depth pieces who have entered the portal, leaving the Tar Heels with plenty of uncertainty.

Injuries will also impact UNC’s offense, as starting tight end John Copenhaver and starting wide receiver Bryson Nesbit will both miss the game after getting banged up late in the season.

Conner Harrell will start in place of Maye, but he has played just 21 snaps on the year.

It’s hard to see North Carolina moving the ball anywhere near as effectively as it did in the regular season.

On the other side of the ball, UNC’s defense was gashed to end the season and will have its hands full against the WVU rushing attack.

North Carolina ranks outside the top 100 in Defensive Line Yards, which will make it very difficult to stop the dual-threat nature of the WVU offense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and UNC match up statistically:

UNC Offense vs West Virginia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 9 88
Line Yards 15 71
Pass Success 36 81
Havoc 18 21
Finishing Drives 32 119
Quality Drives 9 74
West Virginia Offense vs UNC Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 24 71
Line Yards 35 108
Pass Success 62 76
Havoc 14 43
Finishing Drives 49 39
Quality Drives 41 70
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 58 65
PFF Coverage 37 101
Special Teams SP+ 47 53
Middle 8 25 20
Seconds per Play 22.7 (6) 28.4 (94)
Rush Rate 51.4% (96) 63.5% (5)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Whether it be motivation or available personnel, all signs point to a Mountaineers victory.

WVU will badly want to end this season with one more victory, and in a world where many teams don’t care all that much about bowl games, the Mountaineers are an outlier.

Meanwhile, Mack Brown’s team lost four of its final six games after starting 6-0 and had a bunch of key pieces opt out.

I grabbed this line at open when WVU was only about a 3-point favorite, but I still love it with West Virginia sitting at just under a touchdown.

I’d take WVU all the way up to -7 and would also endorse the moneyline or backing the offense with a team total over.

Country Roads, take us home one final time.

Picks: West Virginia -6.5 · WVU as a ML Parlay Piece · WVU Team Total Over 30

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Mike McNamara

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