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NCAAF Odds, Pick for New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky

New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky Odds

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Western Kentucky and New Mexico State meet at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium on Saturday afternoon for a crucial Conference USA game.

Both teams control their own destiny to meet Liberty in the title game. So, let’s dive into this matchup and make a New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky pick.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Coach Jerry Kill’s squad has clinched a bowl berth for the second time in as many seasons, which isn’t something NMSU is used to. In fact, this is the first time New Mexico State has earned bowl bids in back-to-back seasons since the 1959 and 1960 campaigns.

This season, New Mexico State lost three of its first five contests before rattling off five straight victories.

The Aggies will look to extend their win streak and if they are going to do so, quarterback Diego Pavia will need to stay hot. Pavia is in the top three in C-USA in pass efficiency and passing touchdowns. He also leads the team in rushing with 661 yards and five scores.

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With all the pieces returning this year, the goal was pretty clear for coach Tyson Helton. The Hilltoppers were set up to win a conference title.

The newcomers to the league have made the journey a lot harder than expected, but WKU still controls its destiny to play for a championship.

This is also typically when Helton has his team playing their best ball. The Hilltoppers have won 10 straight C-USA games in November and boast a 12-2 league record in the month under Helton.

If this is to continue, the dynamic duo of Austin Reed and Malachi Corley will need to carry the offense. Both are chasing school records and I expect them to be motivated to add a C-USA title to their trophy cases.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and Western Kentucky match up statistically:

New Mexico State Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 6 128
Line Yards 8 128
Pass Success 55 70
Havoc 47 104
Finishing Drives 53 81
Quality Drives 38 63
Western Kentucky Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 111 92
Line Yards 77 63
Pass Success 79 50
Havoc 42 42
Finishing Drives 3 58
Quality Drives 108 46
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 118 131
PFF Coverage 99 53
Special Teams SP+ 117 16
Middle 8 46 103
Seconds per Play 30.5 (128) 25.5 (41)
Rush Rate 58.1% (29) 38.5% (128)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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My best bet is to back New Mexico State getting 4.5 points at Caesars, which I would play down to +3. I’ll also sprinkle a little on the moneyline.

Yes, both teams have great quarterbacks, but the ground game gives the Aggies a huge advantage in this spot.

On the year, NMSU ranks in the top five among Non-Power 5 programs in line yards, rush success and rush PPA on offense. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are in the bottom 10 among NP5 teams in those same categories defensively.

That should allow the Aggies to keep WKU’s high-powered offense on the sidelines.

The Hilltoppers have also struggled against mobile quarterbacks as both Kaidon Salter (Liberty) and Zion Webb (Jacksonville State) rushed for over 100 yards against WKU.

Additionally, I trust the Aggies’ defense to come up with more stops in this matchup.

Pick: New Mexico State +4.5 (Play to +3)

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Brett Pund

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