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new mexico state vs hawaii-odds-picks-predictions-ncaaf-september 23

New Mexico State vs Hawaii Odds & Picks: Both Teams to Light Up Scoreboard

New Mexico State vs Hawaii Odds

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When you think about college football, few matchups stand out more than when New Mexico State travels to Hawaii for a late-night nonconference game.

New Mexico State comes into this game following a road win over in-state rival New Mexico. The Aggies are off to a 2-2 start on the season and have gone 2-2 against the spread. They’ve gone under in their last two games after starting off the season with consecutive games that went over the total.

Hawaii is 1-3 this season and is looking to bounce back from a 55-10 loss to Oregon on the road last week. The Rainbow Warriors are 2-2 against the spread and have gone under in two straight games.

It’s expected to be a windy night on the island with crosswinds forecasted from 14.8 to 16.8 miles per hour. With the strong winds, scoring could be at a premium as the passing game and special teams get impacted.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”New Mexico State Aggies” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nms.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/new-mexico-state-aggies” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

After getting New Mexico State to over 0.500 for the first time since 2017 during his first season, Jerry Kill has the Aggies off to a 2-2 start. NMSU averages 33.0 points per game and 8.3 yards per play with a 53% Success Rate and an average of 4.1 Points per Opportunity.

While New Mexico State remains a run-first offense, it’s been an effective passing team through four games. Quarterback Diego Pavia has completed 64.6% of his passes for an average of 11.2 yards per attempt.

Pavia’s impact in the game can also be felt in the running game as the team’s leader in attempts. As a team, the Aggies own a 45% Passing Success Rate and have recorded four 20-yard passes per game.

The Aggies run the ball 33.3 times per game for an average of 206.8 yards per game. They’ve averaged 6.2 yards per rush and boast a 60% Rushing Success Rate.

While Pavia has the most rush attempts, Star Thomas and Ahmonte Watkins have led the team with 195 and 187 yards, respectively. Their offensive line has allowed a Stuff Rate of just 11.9% and has generated 4.13 Line Yards per attempt.

On defense, New Mexico State is allowing 28 points per game and 6.0 yards per play to go along with a 45% Success Rate. One area of concern for this team is its inability to get opponents off the field. Its 17% Havoc Rate ranks 89th nationally, while its 4.42 Points per Opportunity Allowed mark ranks 111th.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Hawaii Warriors” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/haw.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/hawaii-warriors” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Timmy Chang led Hawaii to a 3-10 season in his first year with the program. This year, he’s off to a 1-3 start with each of those losses coming against Power 5 programs.

The Rainbow Warriors are averaging 23.2 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. They own a 35% Success Rate and have scored only 3.0 points per opportunity once they cross the opponent’s 40-yard line.

However, one area of concern is that they’ve allowed Havic on 19% of plays.

As you’d expect from a Chang-led team, this offense leans heavily on the passing game. Hawaii paces the nation with a 68% passing rate for an average of 43.0 attempts and 278.5 yards per game.

Quarterback Brayden Schager leads the offense with 1,103 passing yards, a 62.6% completion percentage and a 38% Passing Success Rate.

Hawaii averages 24.3 rush attempts per game for only 51.8 rushing yards. Three backs have more than 10 carries, but because they throw so much, no player has over 20. Jordan Johnson leads the team with 115 yards on the ground.

Hawaii’s defense has been among the worst in the nation, as it allows 36.8 points per game (124th) and 5.8 yards per play. The Rainbow Warriors also allow 4.38 points per opportunity and a 41% Success Rate.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and Hawaii match up statistically:

New Mexico State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 4 77
Line Yards 1 61
Pass Success 57 95
Havoc 43 58
Finishing Drives 58 117
Quality Drives 47 129
Hawaii Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 130 105
Line Yards 123 73
Pass Success 101 122
Havoc 102 74
Finishing Drives 115 108
Quality Drives 70 117
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 130 107
PFF Coverage 128 120
Special Teams SP+ 35 57
Middle 8 76 91
Seconds per Play 30.8 (126) 26.9 (69)
Rush Rate 59.6% (27) 36.1% (133)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”New Mexico State vs Hawaii” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

This line opened with Hawaii as a 2-point favorite, and there’s been slight movement favoring the Rainbow Warriors. As of writing, approximately 68% of the bets and 86% of the money has landed on Hawaii.

Additionally, 75% of the money has been in favor of the under, including reported sharp bets, which has led to the line moving down one point.

The story of this game is both teams’ inability to force opposing offenses off the field. New Mexico State’s struggles against the pass are particularly concerning against a Hawaii offense that leads the nation in pass rate.

Meanwhile, Hawaii ranking near the bottom of the country in Points Allowed per Opportunity makes it impossible to back its defense. While both teams’ offensive struggles have led bettors to the under, it’s the defensive struggles that will lead to scoring.

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Matt Wispe

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