Nevada vs Troy Odds
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The Nevada Wolf Pack surprised the nation last Saturday, nearly pulling off an impeccable upset as four-touchdown underdogs against the SMU Mustangs. The Pack had a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter but could not hold on for the victory.
The Wolf Pack travel to Alabama to take on the Troy Trojans looking to avenge their late-game collapse. The line fell steeply after their matchup against SMU and is now at 9.5.
The story entering the matchup is the big change for the Troy program. The Trojans have lost a lot of talent, and it’s the first year at the helm for former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parker.
Let’s dive deeper into our Nevada vs. Troy prediction below.
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- Nevada vs Troy Pick: Under 45 (Play to 42.5)
My Nevada vs. Troy best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nevada vs Troy Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/258546_NevadaWP.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/nevada-wolf-pack” link1follow=”false” logo2url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Troy-Trojans-Logo-100.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/troy-trojans” link2follow=”false”][/subheader]
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Heavy on the Run” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/258546_NevadaWP.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/nevada-wolf-pack” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
The Wolf Pack entered 2024 with a lot of returning production from last season, which was on full display last week. The defense showed up against a projected explosive SMU offense — an encouraging development heading into the matchup against the Trojans.
Quarterback Brendon Lewis showed off his legs with 77 rushing yards last week and sprinkled in two passing touchdowns. Lewis gets a chance to take advantage of a Trojans defense that must incorporate many new pieces.
Offensively, the Pack will rely on their run game again, mixing in Lewis RPOs. There are still questions on how they’ll distribute the carries, but Savion Red currently leads the backfield, and Sean Dollars will get some carries as well.
With a lack of returning production from the Trojans, hypothetically, the Pack can build on their offensive momentum from last weekend. However, I wouldn’t count on it given their horrific offensive production from 2023.
There is a market overreaction to the steep fall of the line, but there are many question marks on the Trojans’ roster. I can’t faithfully back the Pack quite yet; I’ll need to gather more data on them as the season progresses.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Troy Trojans Betting Preview: Major Turnaround in Troy” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Troy-Trojans-Logo-100.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/troy-trojans” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
There are a lot of turnovers for the Trojans, so there is not a lot of hope for the fan base heading into 2024. Parker has a tall task ahead in terms of rebuilding this program in what appears to be a transition season.
Troy ranks amongst the worst teams in the nation in terms of returning production at 128th in the nation. The new backfield will be led by Georgia Southern/ECU transfer Gerald Green, a step down from Kimani Vidal.
The Trojans prided themselves on their stout defense in 2023 as well as their consistent run game. They’ll also have a new quarterback at the helm, as WVU transfer Goose Crowder is set to get his first career start.
I’d expect a ton of running from the Trojans offense on Saturday, as Parker’s bread and butter at Notre Dame centered a heavy rushing attack.
Nevada’s strength of its defense seemed to be in the secondary, so that’s even more reason for the Trojans to pound the rock.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nevada vs Troy Prediction: Target the Total” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
It’s going to be an ugly game, which is why the total has taken a steep fall. Regardless, I love the under here.
Both offenses should run at a snail’s pace, and they should be relying heavily on their rushing attacks.
I don’t expect either offense to find many explosive rushes on the ground despite the departures on defense for the Trojans. I think what we saw from the Nevada offense last weekend is its ceiling, so I project an ugly game ahead.
I would go ahead and lock in the under before the total crashes down any further.
My Pick: Under 45 (Play to 42.5)
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”How to Watch Nevada vs Troy Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location” center=”true”][/subheader]
| Location: | Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Nevada vs Troy Weather” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226464″ date=”2024-08-31″][/gameforecast]
