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Nevada vs Fresno State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Bulldogs Cover Big Spread?

Nevada vs Fresno State Odds

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Last season, Fresno State entered the 2022 season with high expectations, as it had one of its most talented rosters in program history. Injuries and a difficult non-conference schedule led to 1-4 start, but the Bulldogs won their last nine games en route to a Mountain West Championship.

This season, Fresno State again had two road games against Power Five opponents, but it won both — at Purdue and against Arizona State. It’s 4-0 and 3-1 against the spread after a 53-10 drubbing of Kent State last week.

This week, Fresno State is heavily favored again, but it may cover once again with Nevada coming to town.

Read on for our Nevada vs Fresno State prediction, pick, odds.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Nevada is a program that used to be in contention for the Mountain West Championship. However, it’s just 2-14 since the start of last season and is off to a 0-4 start this season. It’s easy to see why when you look at its struggles on both sides of the ball.

The Wolf Pack are 125th nationally in scoring offense (17 points per game) and 131st in scoring defense (41.2 points per game). On a per play basis, they’re being outgained by four yards per play (averaging 4.7 yards per play while giving up 8.7 defensively).

Nevada does rank 30th in Rushing Explosiveness. Running backs Sean Dollars and Ashton Hayes and quarterback Brendon Lewis have combined for four rushes of 20 yards or more. However, Dollars and Hayes each are averaging 3.4 yards per carry.

The Wolf Pack are 117th in Rushing Success Rate, 118th in Line Yards and 132nd in Havoc Allowed.

When Lewis drops back to pass, he often has someone in his face. He’s been sacked seven times and has yet to throw a touchdown pass through the first four games. When he does have to time to throw, he’s usually looking for Jamaal Bell, who leads the team with 24 receptions.

Fresno State doesn’t have a vaunted running game, so defensively, Nevada might be fine in that area. However, defending the pass will be an issue. The Wolf Pack are 131st in Passing Success Rate and 132nd in PFF Coverage Grade.

The fact they faced Caleb Williams in the season opener didn’t help those numbers. However, Nevada has allowed 298 passing yards or more in each of its four games, averaging 340.5 per game.

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Head coach Jeff Tedford knew he had big shoes to fill with quarterback Jake Haener moving onto the NFL after ranking top-five in program history in most passing categories.

Thus far, UCF transfer Mikey Keene has been up to the task. The redshirt sophomore has a 12-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is completing 67.5% of his passes.

The Bulldogs throw the ball on over 55% of their offensive snaps and rank 31st in Passing Success Rate. They already have three receivers with 20 receptions and 200 receiving yards.

Senior Erik Brooks leads the way with 32 receptions for 448 yards and four touchdown receptions.

Keene has been 11 sacked times through the first four games, but Fresno State still ranks 17th in Havoc Allowed. He may not have to deal with much pressure against the Wolf Pack, though, as Nevada is 119th in Havoc and 128th in Line Yards.

The Wolf Pack are also 132nd in tackling grade. Brooks leads a dangerous group of Fresno State playmakers that can turn a missed tackle into an explosive play in a hurry.

Fresno State allowed 66 points in its first two games, but it’s allowed just 10 points in its last two. Against Nevada, its defensive line should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage.

Defensively, Fresno State ranks 13rd in Line Yards and 30th in Rushing Success Rate.

It’s also 31st in rushing yards allowed per game and 23rd in total defense. The Bulldogs should be able to stuff Nevada’s running game.

If the Bulldogs are able to take an early lead, Nevada may have to abandon its running game anyway.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and Fresno State match up statistically:

Nevada Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 117 30
Line Yards 118 13
Pass Success 102 61
Havoc 132 53
Finishing Drives 117 32
Quality Drives 104 19
Fresno State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 116 126
Line Yards 86 128
Pass Success 31 131
Havoc 17 119
Finishing Drives 37 94
Quality Drives 16 133
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 132 103
PFF Coverage 132 38
Special Teams SP+ 85 94
Middle 8 86 67
Seconds per Play 27.6 (81) 26.5 (65)
Rush Rate 51.9% (37) 45.3% (116)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Nevada comes into this week’s matchup on a 10-game losing streak. In that span, it’s being outscored by over 20 points per game, including a 27-point loss to Fresno State last season.

The Wolf Pack have covered the last two weeks, but they’re 4-6 ATS in that span, as well.

Now they have to deal with a Fresno State team that’s been a buzzsaw. The Bulldogs are on a 13-game winning streak dating back to last year and are 8-5 ATS in that span.

Offensively, Keene should have carve up this Nevada secondary with his precision passing. Expect another big game from Brooks, who’s averaging 112 yards per game this season.

Fresno State is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry and should control the line of scrimmage in this game. Its defensive line has just seven sacks this season.

However, this could be a breakout game for the group, with Lewis likely to be forced to throw behind an offensive line that’s struggled to protect him.

There’s a hook on this line at 24.5, but I don’t think it will matter. Expect the Bulldogs to cruise to another comfortable victory over Nevada.

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