NC State vs Virginia Odds, Picks: Expect Plenty of Points

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/439394_ncst.png” awayname=”NC State” awayslug=”north-carolina-state-wolfpack” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uva.png” homename=”Virginia” homeslug=”virginia-cavaliers” date=”Friday, Sept. 22″ time=”7:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-7.5″ col1awayline=”-115″ col1hometext=”+7.5″ col1homeline=”-105″ col2awaytext=”47.5″ col2hometext=”47.5″ col2awayline=”-115o / -105u” col2homeline=”-115o / -105u” col3awaytext=”-305″ col3hometext=”+245″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

Friday Night Lights has been kind to us from a betting perspective this season.

We have another fantastic matchup between two ACC foes as NC State travels to Charlottesville looking to build momentum against a Virginia team that has yet to record its first win.

The Wolfpack are coming off a 45-7 clobbering of VMI, a critical get-right game for quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who was coming off a poor performance against Notre Dame.

Unfortunately, Virginia’s offensive production isn’t compensating enough for their lousy defensive play. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of 42.3 points in their three losses.

To determine if NC State will continue to build on its performance from Week 2, or if Virginia can finally find some consistency, let’s look at the odds and make a prediction for the NC State Wolfpack vs. the Virginia Cavaliers.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”NC State Wolfpack” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/north-carolina-state-wolfpack” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

The story so far this season for the Wolfpack has been the success they have had offensively. First-year offensive coordinator Robert Anae reunited this offseason with Armstrong. The duo saw similar success during their time together at Virginia in 2021.

[twitterembed tweetid=”1704223733735424266″][/twitterembed]

The duo returns to Charlottesville with an offense that ranks 13th nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate and 40th in Points per Opportunity.

Against a stout Notre Dame defense, the Wolfpack posted a respectable 4 Points per Opportunity but were ultimately outpaced due to turnovers.

Armstrong and company have to like this matchup against a Cavaliers defense that ranks among the worst college football teams in Success Rate allowed, Points per Opportunity allowed and Havoc generated.

In particular, Virginia’s secondary, which lost vital All-ACC starters in cornerbacks Fentrell Cypress and Anthony Johnson, has struggled mightily to replace production. As a result, Virginia is allowing 260 passing yards per game.

It is important to note that Virginia has faced a demanding schedule to start the season, with games against Tenessee, James Madison and Maryland. But we should still expect continued struggles from this defense on Friday night.

Virginia has played three games in a row where its defense struggled to get off the field, and I don’t see that changing against an NC State offense with two former Cavaliers at the helm.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Virginia Cavaliers” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uva.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/virginia-cavaliers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

This handicap ultimately comes down to what type of production Virginia will be able to generate on offense. Can they keep up with NC State?

So far, the Cavaliers have relied heavily on explosive plays to get points on the board. Virginia ranks sixth nationally in offensive explosiveness, generating 20.7 points per game through three weeks.

After starting the season with senior quarterback Tony Muskett, the Cavaliers have turned to freshman Anthony Colandrea in its past two games. Colandrea has posted a QBR of 61.5 and racked up 652 passing yards alongside a 3:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

As of writing, it’s unclear who will be the starter Friday night, but one has to believe Colandrea showed enough against Maryland in Week 2 to surpass an underwhelming Muskett, who is also battling injury.

With Colandrea at the helm, Virginia posted a 1.88 Explosiveness rating of 1.88 against James Madison and 1.51 against Maryland.

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I expect more explosive plays from Virginia against an NC State defense that ranks 111th in explosiveness allowed.

In addition, NC State’s defense has been lousy in the red zone, ranking 125th nationally in Points per Opportunity allowed.

Virginia can generate explosive plays and punch the ball in when it matters most. I expect the Cavaliers to turn big plays into points Friday night.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how NC State and Virginia match up statistically:

NC State Offense vs. Virginia Defense

	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State Wolfpack” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png” slug=”north-carolina-state-wolfpack”][/teamlogo] Offense	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Virginia Cavaliers” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uva.png” slug=”virginia-cavaliers”][/teamlogo] Defense	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Combined” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png” slug=””][/teamlogo] Edge
Rush Success	13	128	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Line Yards	36	126	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Pass Success	66	125	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Havoc	59	117	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Finishing Drives	25	129	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Quality Drives	40	118	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]

Virginia Offense vs. NC State Defense

	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Virginia Cavaliers” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uva.png” slug=”virginia-cavaliers”][/teamlogo] Offense	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State Wolfpack” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png” slug=”north-carolina-state-wolfpack”][/teamlogo] Defense	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Combined” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png” slug=””][/teamlogo] Edge
Rush Success	132	75	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Line Yards	124	47	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Pass Success	112	61	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Havoc	131	40	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Finishing Drives	95	123	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Virginia” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uva.png”][/teamlogo]
Quality Drives	123	54	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]

Pace of Play / Other

	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”NC State Wolfpack” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png” slug=”north-carolina-state-wolfpack”][/teamlogo]	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Virginia Cavaliers” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uva.png”][/teamlogo]
PFF Tackling	59	100
PFF Coverage	79	74
Special Teams SP+	113	128
Middle 8	37	69
Seconds per Play	26.5 (61)	28.9 (94)
Rush Rate	53.3% (69)	54.1% (90)

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”NC State vs Virginia” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

This NC State defense is arguably the best Virginia has faced this season.

However, I liked what I saw out of Colandrea in a high-scoring, fast-paced game against Maryland a week ago.

I think this Virginia offense will find the end zone enough to cash Over 47.5. NC State’s duo of Armstrong and Anae will look to score on every possession, ultimately forcing Virginia to play catch up by turning to its explosive play ability.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 49)” linktext=”Bet the Over Instantly With FanDuel QuickSlip” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.396566522&selectionId=7017916&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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