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Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday

We’ve got a battle in Starkville in one of the few SEC matchups that doesn’t have many implications on the national picture. The Missouri Tigers (7-3, 3-3 SEC) take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-8, 0-6) in a Saturday afternoon SEC clash. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network.

Missouri, which is coming off a 34-30 loss at South Carolina, has been eliminated from contention for the SEC title game and has already reached bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Mississippi State can’t make a bowl game and is simply fighting for pride.

Missouri enters this game as a -7.5 favorite with an over/under of 57.5.

Let’s take a look at my Missouri vs. Mississippi State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.

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  • Missouri vs. Mississippi State Pick: Mississippi State +8

My Mississippi State vs. Missouri best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Missouri vs Mississippi State Odds

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  • Missouri vs Mississippi State Spread: Missouri -7.5 (-110) · Mississippi State +7.5 (-110)
  • Missouri vs Mississippi State Over/Under: 57.5 Points
  • Missouri vs Mississippi State Moneyline: Missouri -305 · Mississippi State +245

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Missouri entered this season with sky-high expectations after a phenomenal 2023 campaign. However, it hasn’t lived up to those hopes.

That’s not necessarily a shot at Eli Drinkwitz and the Tigers, as there have been some bad breaks with injuries and other external factors.

The fact that they still have a chance to win nine regular-season games is somewhat impressive even if it’s played a very favorable SEC schedule thus far.

Mizzou has had to roll out Arizona State transfer quarterback Drew Pyne for multiple conference games and has also had other injuries at key position groups. As a result, the Tigers have struggled to consistently move the ball through the air even with elite wide receivers in Luther Burden III and Theo Wease.

The defense has also struggled when it has faced dynamic offenses and couldn’t get one final stop last week at South Carolina.

It’s a more favorable matchup this week, but I expect Mississippi State to come out with its hair on fire still searching for its first conference win.

Miss State’s offense put up 31 on Georgia, 28 on Florida and 24 on Texas A&M, so it’s not like this team can’t score.

On the other side, the Bulldogs defense has been torched all season, so there are plenty of paths to points for the Tigers.

Quarterback Brady Cook has been battling injuries all year but should be in line to go in this game, and in my opinion, he’ll be needed if Mizzou wants to create margin.

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It was always going to be a difficult year for the Bulldogs in 2024.

Having to replace veteran quarterback Will Rogers at quarterback was already rough as is, but when you factor in a first-year head coach and a challenging schedule, it makes it even tougher to win games in the SEC.

Give new head coach Jeff Lebby credit for keeping this team together and fighting. I have a hunch it may pay off this week with their first conference victory.

Since taking over in the Florida game, quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. has played some quality football given the circumstances. He’s gone for over 300 passing yards against both Georgia and Arkansas and has nearly a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The defense, meanwhile, has been a disaster all year in Starkville. Every FBS opponent has gone for at least 20 points, including UMass.

There’s nothing the unit does particularly well when it comes to defending the run and pass, and it comes in 131st out of 134 FBS teams in Havoc.

Clearly, for the Bulldogs to hang around in this game, their offense will need to have a big afternoon, and the defense will have to come up with some timely stops.

I think that formula is possible, and forcing a turnover or two would go a long way in helping the cause.

Missouri vs Mississippi State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Mississippi State match up statistically:

Missouri Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 21 124
Line Yards 55 114
Pass Success 101 133
Havoc 22 131
Finishing Drives 81 115
Quality Drives 52 132
Mississippi State Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 86 23
Line Yards 82 14
Pass Success 99 71
Havoc 117 36
Finishing Drives 58 39
Quality Drives 59 26
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 51 108
PFF Coverage 81 134
Special Teams SP+ 77 62
Middle 8 108 116
Seconds per Play 27.2 (67) 23.3 (7)
Rush Rate 53% (65) 54% (72)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
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I really like this spot for Mississippi State off a bye in its final home game of the season and senior day hosting a Missouri team that will probably have a bit of a letdown after losing a heartbreaker last week.

Cook is still nowhere near 100% healthy, and the Tigers offense remains limited as a result.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have not thrown in the towel despite their record. Now, they should have some matchup advantages when they have the ball.

Give me Miss State to hang inside this number and potentially pull off the outright upset against a worn-down Mizzou team.

Bring those cowbells.

Pick: Mississippi State +8

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Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Date: Saturday, Nov. 23
Kickoff Time: 4:15 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: SEC Network

Missouri takes on Mississippi State on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network.

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