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Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Spread, Picks, Odds, How to Watch NCAAF Friday

The Egg Bowl peaked in 2019 when the result of the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels game was dubbed the “Piss, the Miss and the Double Dismiss.”

The Rebels (8-3, 4-3 SEC) and Bulldogs (2-9, 0-7) soon fired their head coaches and moved on to a new era, leading Lane Kiffin from Florida Atlantic to Ole Miss.

Ole Miss had a path to the College Football Playoff throughout the season, but a 24-17 loss to Florida last week all but eliminates them.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, has struggled to remain relevant since the death of head coach Mike Leach. The Bulldogs have had more head coaches than SEC wins over the past two seasons, as Jeff Lebby was unable to right the ship in his inaugural season.

Ole Miss enters the game as a -26.5-point favorite, as points are expected in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium with a total at 61.5.

Let’s dive into my Mississippi State vs Ole Miss predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 29.

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  • Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Pick: First-Half Under 31.5

My Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State best bet is on the first-half under, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Odds, Lines, Spread

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  • Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Spread: Ole Miss -25, Mississippi State +25
  • Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Over/Under: 63
  • Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Moneyline: Ole Miss ML -2400, Mississippi State ML +1200

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Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

Mississippi State has not improved during Lebby’s first season as head coach. The former Oklahoma offensive coordinator indicated at SEC Media Days that the offense would be his style of Air Raid and not a hybrid offense to match the best attributes of the roster.

The Bulldogs sit outside the top 100 in Success Rate, relying on explosive plays to move the ball.

Quarterback Michael Van Buren took over as the starter in Week 5 against Texas, notching a near-even ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays through 224 passing attempts.

Defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler has fielded one of the worst defenses in Power Four football. The 3-3-5 personnel is dead last in numerous categories, including coverage, pass rush, Havoc and Passing Success Rate allowed.

The secondary also sits near dead last in allowing pass explosives while finishing as the worst FBS team in creating contested catches.

Brice Pollock has been the shining star at cornerback, generating four pass breakups and an interception while posting one of the best tackle grades on the roster.

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Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview

Ole Miss, fresh off a loss to Florida that could be a national title eliminator, may be the toughest team to handicap in Week 14.

While a rivalry game should awaken any program, Kiffin mentioned there are 48 new players on the roster with no experience in the Egg Bowl.

The Egg Bowl could be a chance for Jaxson Dart to rectify the mistakes from Week 13, as his last two offensive possessions against Florida ended with an interception.

There were numerous injuries suffered during the game, one of the constant issues Kiffin has faced in the 2024 season.

Wide receiver Tre Harris finally returned to action with a clean bill of health, only to limp off the field against Florida.

While the Harris injury has been constant through the second half of the season, Ole Miss suffered a much bigger injury with the loss of center Reece McIntyre.

The offensive lineman was replaced by right guard Gerquan Scott, who graded poorly while giving up three pressures in just two dozen snaps.

With starting tight end Dae’Quan Wright also leaving with an injury, Ole Miss may have some holes to patch in the blocking department.

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Pete Golding’s nickel defense has lived up to expectations as the top-rated Havoc unit in the FBS.

Uncharacteristically, the Rebels allowed several explosive drives and had consistent struggles in the red-zone against the Gators.

Ole Miss allowed Florida to extend drives beyond the 40-yard line on four occasions, allowing three touchdowns and a field goal. The Gators converted nearly half of their third-down attempts despite an average distance of 8.3 yards to go.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Mississippi State match up statistically:

Mississippi State Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 94 8
Line Yards 83 10
Pass Success 96 13
Havoc 111 1
Finishing Drives 88 10
Quality Drives 66 5
Ole Miss Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 33 119
Line Yards 46 109
Pass Success 4 134
Havoc 52 134
Finishing Drives 56 117
Quality Drives 5 132
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 111 15
PFF Coverage 134 35
Special Teams SP+ 33 2
Middle 8 113 30
Seconds per Play 23.2 (6) 23.4 (8)
Rush Rate 54% (78) 53% (80)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Kiffin sold the new Ole Miss roster on the importance of the Egg Bowl, a game that has moved from Thanksgiving evening to a Friday afternoon.

The bigger question is not motivation, but the injury concerns for the Rebels at numerous positions.

The injury to McIntyre at center will force Ole Miss to shuffle the offensive line and start less experienced players. McIntyre is the highest-graded pass-blocking lineman on the team — a critical blow to the protection of Dart.

In 123 pressured dropbacks this season, Dart has produced a high 5.1% turnover-worthy play rate.

Despite Ole Miss’ motivational questions, Mississippi State struggles to field quality play on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs’ uptempo offense ranks 128th in momentum killer, a statistic that gauges penalties, turnovers and various statistics that stop a possession.

Another issue has been game-flow scoring for Mississippi State this season, coming in with the eighth-worst scoring differential in the first half. The scripted portion has been unkind to the Bulldogs, who have trailed by an average of 9.3 points at halftime.

Look for the Ole Miss defense to continue wrecking opposing offenses during the early scripted portion of the game.

The Rebels offense should have minimal resistance, but offensive line shuffling and injuries to the skill positions could stall the scoring through the early stages of the Egg Bowl.

Pick: First Half Under 31.5

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Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Channel, Streaming, How to Watch, Location, Start Time

Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Date: Friday, Nov. 29
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ABC

Mississippi State and Ole Miss meet in the Egg Bowl on Friday, Nov. 29 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Betting Trends

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Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Weather

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