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Mississippi State vs Georgia Predictions and Picks for NCAAF Week 7

The Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-4) on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4:15 pm ET on the SEC Network.

Georgia is a 33.5-point home favorite in this SEC matchup. Mississippi State has been largely uncompetitive this year, and the total for this game is just 53.5, as Mississippi State’s implied team total is only 10 points.

Let’s examine how I see this game playing out in my Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Georgia Bulldogs predictions and college football picks for this Week 7 NCAAF matchup.

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For an SEC conference game, 33.5 points is a lot to lay with the favorite, but I don’t see how Mississippi State can hold up in this matchup.

Pick: 

Mississippi State vs Georgia Odds, Spread, Over/Under

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  • Mississippi State vs Georgia spread: Georgia -33.5
  • Mississippi State vs Georgia over/under: 54.5 points
  • Mississippi State vs Georgia moneyline: Georgia -20000
  • Mississippi State vs Georgia pick: Georgia -33.5

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Mississippi State Football

Mississippi State is just 1-4 on the year, with its only victory against FCS squad Eastern Kentucky. The Bulldogs have lost to Arizona State, Florida and Texas and were even embarrassed by Toledo at home by 24 points.

Michael Van Buren Jr. has taken over as quarterback for this team after Blake Shapen had the job to start the year. Van Buren has not fared well, averaging -0.21 EPA per dropback, with his only start this year coming against Texas.

I don’t believe Shapen was the problem with this offense, as he averaged 0.13 EPA per dropback. Mississippi State ranks 47th nationally in Pass Success Rate and 48th in Pass PPA. Overall, the Bulldogs rank 58th in Success Rate and 61st in Finishing Drives.

The rushing attack hasn’t been spectacular, ranking 75th in Success Rate and 79th in PPA. The offensive line for the Bulldogs has been a problem, as they rank 94th in PFF’s Run Blocking grades and 83rd in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades.

Defensively, the Bulldogs rank 115th in Success Rate allowed, 98th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 132nd in Havoc generated. They rank 12th in Explosiveness allowed, but that has been one of the few positives on this side of the ball.

The Bulldogs are 112th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 77th in Rush PPA allowed. Mississippi State is also 103rd in Pass Success Rate allowed but 64th in Pass PPA allowed. They are actually 37th in PFF’s Rush Defense grades but 134th in PFF’s Pass Rush grades, 112th in PFF’s Tackling grades, and 130th in PFF’s Coverage grades.

Georgia Football

Georgia is 4-1 on the year, and if not for a poor start on the road against Alabama, the Bulldogs may still be undefeated and the No. 1 team in the country.

The Bulldogs rank 46th nationally in Success Rate, 47th in Explosiveness, 27th in Havoc allowed and 14th in Finishing Drives.

Carson Beck has 12 touchdowns against three interceptions this year, averaging 0.22 EPA per dropback. Georgia’s passing game ranks 40th nationally in Success Rate and 28th in PPA, while the ground attack ranks 59th in Rush Success Rate and 49th in Rush PPA. Georgia ranks ninth in PFF Pass Blocking grades but just 55th in Run Blocking grades.

Georgia’s defense ranks 55th in Success Rate allowed, first in Explosiveness allowed and ninth in Defensive Finishing Drives. They only rank 50th in Havoc generated and 84th in PFF’s Pass Rushing grades, as the Bulldogs have not generated a lot of pressure up front.

The Bulldogs rank 14th in Pass Success Rate allowed, seventh in Pass PPA allowed, and fourth in Pass Explosiveness allowed. Their weak point has been against the run, where they only rank 87th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 38th in Rush PPA allowed.

Mississippi State vs Georgia Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Mississippi State and Georgia match up statistically:

Mississippi State Offense vs. Georgia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 61 51
Line Yards 55 63
Pass Success 86 27
Havoc 108 67
Finishing Drives 93 10
Quality Drives 62 35
Georgia Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 60 123
Line Yards 76 111
Pass Success 38 120
Havoc 38 132
Finishing Drives 9 117
Quality Drives 25 122
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 110 48
PFF Coverage 131 65
Special Teams SP+ 40 7
Middle 8 116 7
Seconds per Play 23.2 (9) 28.0 (81)
Rush Rate 57% (55) 45% (107)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I don’t believe Mississippi State will be able to put much together on offense in this matchup.

The Bulldogs primarily pass the ball, which has been the strength of this Georgia defense. The Bulldogs have seemingly switched to a worse passer at quarterback, and he will have his hands full on Saturday.

I don’t think the Georgia offense has been great this season, but I expect it to succeed against this poor Mississippi State defense. The Bulldogs can’t tackle, rush the passer, or cover in the secondary.

For an SEC conference game, 33.5 points is a lot to lay with the favorite, but I don’t see how Mississippi State can hold up in this matchup.

Pick: Georgia -33.5 (Play to -34.5)

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Mississippi State vs Georgia Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch

Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia
Date: Saturday, Oct 12
Kickoff Time: 4:15 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: SEC Network

Mississippi State vs Georgia will be played at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia, on Saturday, Oct. 12 at 4:15 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on SEC Network.

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Georgia vs Mississippi State Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226844″ date=”2024-10-12″][/gameforecast]

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Cody Goggin

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