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minnesota golden gophers vs ucla bruins-prediction-pick-odds-college football-betting-saturday oct 12

Minnesota vs UCLA Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, October 12

Saturday’s Big Ten schedule comes to a close in Los Angeles when the UCLA Bruins host the Minnesota Golden Gophers for their first-ever West Coast conference game.

Minnesota rewrote its season by upsetting USC last weekend, and it now has an opportunity to get back above .500 for the first time this year. It will take a bit for UCLA to get back to .500, but can it earn its first Big Ten win with the Golden Gophers in town?

Here’s a look at my Minnesota vs. UCLA predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.

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  • Minnesota vs UCLA Pick: Minnesota (-3.5)

My Minnesota-UCLA best bet is on the Golden Gophers spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN BET, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Minnesota vs. UCLA Odds

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  • Minnesota vs UCLA Point Spread: Minnesota -3.5 (-110) · UCLA +3.5 (-110)
  • Minnesota vs UCLA Total: Over/Under 40 (-105o / -115u)
  • Minnesota vs UCLA Moneyline: Minnesota -185 · UCLA +155
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Things looked dire for P.J. Fleck and the Golden Gophers following their 31-14 loss to Iowa on Sept. 21. They were gashed by Kaleb Johnson for 206 yards and three scores, and it was their second home loss to Power Four competition.

But after a nice showing against Michigan on the road and a big win over USC last week, things are looking up for Minnesota.

The Gophers’ offense has looked solid for two games in a row with two 24-point outings, and Darius Taylor has emerged as their top offensive threat.

New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer has been decent for Minnesota with 1,263 yards, six touchdowns and four picks. He’s not a game-changer by any means, but he operates the Golden Gophers’ offense well and gives them a chance to win.

With Brosmer leading the way, Minnesota is 39th in Rushing Success Rate and 41st in Passing Success Rate.

The Golden Gophers are once again a stingy defensive team. Holding USC to 17 points is no small feat, and aside from giving up 31 points to Iowa, this defense has been impressive each week and pitched shutouts against Rhode Island and Nevada.

They are allowing just 15.7 points per game and are fifth in Passing Success Rate Allowed.

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Sometimes, college football programs with low expectations surprise everyone with a decent season (last year’s Northwestern team is a perfect example).

UCLA is not one of them.

A last-minute field goal against Hawai’i in Week 1 is the only thing separating the Bruins from an 0-5 record. Since then, they’ve lost every game by an average of 20.8 points, with their “closest” defeat being a 27-11 road loss to Penn State last weekend that was much less competitive than the final score indicates.

All of this is to say that UCLA is very bad, probably a bottom-five team in the Power Four.

Quarterback Chase Garbers has been ineffective, with three touchdown passes compared to six interceptions, and he likely won’t be at full strength since he’s dealing with an ankle injury that kept him out against Penn State last week.

Backup QB Justyn Martin led a touchdown drive against the Nittany Lions, but it was the typical garbage-time score, so you can’t really take much from it.

For as bad as the Bruin passing game has been, their run game is arguably worse. UCLA is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry and only has one rushing touchdown this season. Tough to watch.

The Bruins are a ghastly 133rd in Rushing Success Rate and rank 113th or lower in four other key offensive metrics.

Penn State only scoring 27 points made UCLA’s defense look fine, but this still isn’t a good unit. It is giving up 30.0 points per game and is down at 116th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 129th in Quality Drives Allowed.

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Minnesota vs UCLA Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and UCLA match up statistically:

Minnesota Offense vs. UCLA Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 39 97
Line Yards 100 52
Pass Success 41 116
Havoc 60 85
Finishing Drives 59 112
Quality Drives 60 129
UCLA Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 133 73
Line Yards 130 69
Pass Success 118 5
Havoc 113 31
Finishing Drives 125 43
Quality Drives 64 33
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 105 57
PFF Coverage 25 107
Special Teams SP+ 108 65
Middle 8 42 54
Seconds per Play 29.9 (120) 31.2 (131)
Rush Rate 51% (88) 44% (128)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Minnesota is a flawed team, but I can’t pass up this opportunity to fade UCLA.

At least the Golden Gophers have an offensive identity and some clear strengths. Do the Bruins have any strengths?

Look for Minnesota to lean on the run game and shut down UCLA’s offense. Go with the Golden Gophers to win and cover in their trip to L.A.

Pick: Minnesota -3.5 (Play to -4)

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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Minnesota vs UCLA Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch” center=”true”][/subheader]

Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Date: Saturday, Oct. 12
Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: Big Ten Network
UCLA vs. Minnesota will take place on Saturday, Oct. 12 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., at 9 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on Big Ten Network.

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