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middle tennessee blue raiders vs memphis tigers-prediction-pick-odds-ncaaf-saturday september 28

Middle Tennessee vs Memphis Prediction and Pick for College Football Week 5

The Memphis Tigers suffered their first season loss last week against Navy despite entering the matchup as double-digit favorites.

They will try to rebound at home against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, who enter the game 1-3 on the season.

The Blue Raiders are a terrible football team, and it’s just the type of game that the Tigers could use to rebound after a tough loss. Oddsmakers have the Tigers as 25.5-point favorites, and the total is 61.5.

Here’s my Middle Tennessee vs Memphis prediction and my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.

Middle Tennessee vs Memphis Odds, Prediction

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  • Middle Tennessee vs Memphis spread: Memphis -26
  • Middle Tennessee vs Memphis over/under: 61 points
  • Middle Tennessee vs Memphis Moneyline: Memphis -3200
  • Middle Tennessee vs Memphis Pick: Memphis -25.5

My Memphis vs Middle Tennessee best bet is on the Tigers spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

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Middle Tennessee Football

Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has 1001 yards through the air through 3 games, but that has yet to correlate to wins for the Blue Raiders. However, you could argue most of his passing yards have come in garbage time.

Middle Tennessee has many issues, but the quarterback position does not appear to be one. The offense ranks 128th nationally in Rush Success Rate, 123rd in Havoc allowed, and 129th in Finishing Drives.

It’s been a disaster so far, but the passing attack has at least shown signs of competence. They rank 108th in Havoc allowed, and they’re going up against a Tigers team that is seventh in the nation in defensive Havoc.

The offensive line will get dominated here and is up against a Tigers team after a tough loss. Another significant issue is that the defensive side of the ball has been horrific.

The Blue Raiders rank outside the top 100 in four defensive categories:

  • Rush Success Rate allowed
  • Pass Success Rate allowed
  • Havoc
  • Defensive Finishing Drives
  • Defensive Quality Drives

They’re also horrific in Special Teams, which is a highly lopsided matchup against the Tigers. There are too many disadvantages on both sides of the ball for the Blue Raiders, and the spread may not be high enough.

Memphis Football

The Tigers got destroyed on the defensive side of the ball last week, allowing 11 yards per play and 586 total yards.

Meanwhile, Memphis had 711 yards for the game but lost by double digits. Quarterback Seth Henigan has thrown for more than 1100 yards thus far and has a juicy matchup against the Blue Raiders.

The Tigers rank 77th nationally in Pass Success Rate against a Middle Tennessee State defense that ranks 134th in Pass Success Rate allowed. Henigan should dice up the secondary, and it’s not every day that a team loses after putting up 711 yards of offense.

It’s a perfect get-right spot for Memphis, and Henigan should shred all afternoon long. Even if Henigan doesn’t do the heavy lifting, the Tigers rank 37th in Rush Success Rate.

Middle Tennessee is also awful against the run, so the offense should score at will on almost every possession.

The Tigers’ defensive numbers are not too pretty, but they rank 46th in Pass Success Rate allowed. That is key against the Blue Raiders, considering their one offensive threat is at the quarterback position.

They are also seventh in defensive Havoc, which I discussed earlier when discussing the Blue Raiders’ offensive line. They also rank 53rd in Defensive Line Yards — they should dominate in the trenches.

It will get ugly quickly, and I do not expect the Tigers to slow down at any point throughout the game. This has blowout victory written all over it.

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Middle Tennessee vs Memphis Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Middle Tennessee and Memphis match up statistically:

Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Memphis Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 128 111
Line Yards 120 53
Pass Success 80 46
Havoc 123 7
Finishing Drives 129 93
Quality Drives 41 69
Memphis Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 37 122
Line Yards 78 75
Pass Success 77 134
Havoc 34 106
Finishing Drives 45 131
Quality Drives 17 132
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 68 88
PFF Coverage 108 89
Special Teams SP+ 101 38
Middle 8 130 86
Seconds per Play 30.0 (119) 27.4 (68)
Rush Rate 46% (120) 44% (114)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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The Tigers may only need half of the yards they put up last week to cruise to a victory here. But I expect a massive bounce-back effort that should correlate to a gigantic win.

The line is currently at 25.5, a dead number, so I will snag that before it creeps up to 27.

The Tigers will dominate on both sides of the ball, and the Blue Raiders will have zero advantages.

A rout is about to ensue in Memphis, and this is one of my favorite bets on the entire card for the weekend.

Pick: Memphis -25.5 (Play to -27.5)

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How to Watch Middle Tennessee vs Memphis Live: Streaming, Channel, Time

Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Date: Saturday, Sept. 28
Kickoff Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPNU

Memphis vs Middle Tennessee Betting Trends

  • 53% of bettors and 80% of the money are backing Memphis to cover.
  • 93% of bets and 92% of the money is aimed at the Under.

Memphis vs Middle Tennessee Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226753″ date=”2024-09-28″][/gameforecast]

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John Feltman

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