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Miami (OH) vs Toledo Predictions, Picks, Odds, How to Watch for College Football Saturday

There’s nothing better than MACtion on a Saturday.

That’s what we have here, as the Toledo Rockets (3-1) welcome the Miami (OH) RedHawks (1-3) for a Week 6 college football matchup.

Miami (OH) enters this game with a 1-3 record and is coming off its first win of the year over UMass. It’s also 1-3 against the spread, and every RedHawk game has stayed under the closing total.

Toledo comes into this game with a 3-1 record and looks to bounce back from its first loss of the year to Western Kentucky. The Rockets hold a 2-2 record against the spread and have gone over in three games.

Winds around 9 miles per hour will be present during this game, but with no rain and moderate temperatures, the weather shouldn’t significantly impact the game.

The Rockets enter as -6.5 favorites with the over/under set at 44.

Read on for my Toledo vs Miami (OH) predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.

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My Toledo vs Miami (OH) best bet is on the under, with the best available line at BetMGM Sportsbook.

  • Miami (OH) vs Toledo Pick: Under 44.5

Miami (OH) vs Toledo Odds, Spread, Lines

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  • Miami (OH) vs Toledo Point Spread: Toledo -6.5 (-110)
  • Miami (OH) vs Toledo Over/Under: 44.5 Points
  • Miami (OH) vs Toledo Moneyline: Miami (OH) +210 · Toledo -260

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Miami (OH) Football vs Toledo Football Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/moh.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/told.png”][/subheader]

Miami-OH RedHawks Betting Preview: Making Life Difficult

Chuck Martin’s team finally picked up its first win over UMass last week and will look to build on that momentum as conference play begins.

The RedHawks have struggled scoring, averaging just 12 points per game and five yards per play with a meager 39% Success Rate. And, despite averaging the best starting field position in the country, they’ve scored only 1.78 Points per Opportunity.

Quarterback Brett Gabbert leads an offense that passes the ball over 55% of the time. He’s completing 56.8% of his passes for 6.6 YPA, but he’s struggled with turnovers, tossing six picks to three touchdowns.

As a team, Miami has posted a 45% Pass Success Rate with 2.25 20-yard-passes per game.

Losing Rashad Amos in the offseason has hindered the running game. The RedHawks are averaging just 85.5 rushing yards per game at 3.1 YPC. Keyon Mozee leads the team with 28 rushes for 174 yards.

As a team, Miami (OH) has posted a 29% Rush Success Rate, ranking 130th nationally.

While the offense has struggled to score, the defense has made life difficult for opposing offenses, allowing 22 points per game, 5.9 yards per play, and 2.36 Points per Opportunity. While the RedHawks rank 112th nationally with a 45% Success Rate allowed, they’ve made life difficult by limiting explosive plays.

[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/509930_NCAAFArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for college football bettors” firstupsell=”The best NCAAF betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/4fb1273b”][/appcard]

Toledo Rockets Betting Preview: Looking To Bounce Back

Toledo posted a dud against Western Kentucky last week, which was likely a letdown game after its big win over Mississippi State the week before.

The Rockets average 37.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play with a 46% Success Rate and 4.65 Points per Opportunity.

Tucker Gleason leads the passing attack with 862 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 8.0 yards per attempt.

The RedHawks have posted a 49% Pass Success Rate with 2.75 20-plus-yard passes per game.

Still, Toledo is a rush-first offense, with a 46% rush rate that ranks in the top 40 nationally. Four players, including Gleason, have amassed over 30 rush attempts this year, while Willie Shaw leads the team with 148 yards and three scores.

As a team, the Rockets average 136 rushing yards per game at 3.7 YPC with a 45% Rush Success Rate.

Meanwhile, the defense allows 19 points per game at five yards per play with a 38% Success Rate allowed. But it’s worth mentioning their 23% Havoc Rate ranks 23rd nationally.

Toledo vs Miami (OH) Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Miami (OH) match up statistically:

Miami (OH) Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 115 35
Line Yards 59 69
Pass Success 76 78
Havoc 123 9
Finishing Drives 134 61
Quality Drives 104 41
Toledo Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 84 105
Line Yards 72 125
Pass Success 39 41
Havoc 28 128
Finishing Drives 37 36
Quality Drives 56 95
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 132 31
PFF Coverage 118 37
Special Teams SP+ 73 115
Middle 8 109 27
Seconds per Play 28.3 (84) 26.6 (56)
Rush Rate 44% (127) 56% (42)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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As of this writing, 79% of bets have backed Toledo to cover the 6.5-point spread, but 12% of the money is on the favorite.

According to Action Network’s PRO Report, Toledo is attracting sharp action, but big-money bets are on Miami (OH) to keep the game within a touchdown.

My lean on the spread is to back Toledo, but it’s not my preferred play.

My preferred bet on this game is to play the total.

Even with a total in the low 40s, the market has seemingly not caught up to Miami’s style of play. With the RedHawks’ slow pace on offense and ability to contain explosives, every drive takes time off the clock.

Pick: Under 44.5 (Play to 42.5)

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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”How to Watch Miami (OH) vs Toledo Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location” center=”true”][/subheader]

Location: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
Date: Saturday, Oct. 5
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN+

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  • Miami (OH) is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS
  • Miami (OH) games are 4-0 to the Under
  • Toledo is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS
  • Toledo games are 3-1 to the Over

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Miami (OH) vs Toledo Weather” center=”true”][/subheader]

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226777″ date=”2024-10-05″][/gameforecast]

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