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miami hurricanes vs usf bulls-prediction-pick-odds-college football-saturday september 21

Miami vs USF Prediction and Pick for College Football Week 4

We head to Tampa, where the USF Bulls (2-1) host the eighth-ranked Miami Hurricanes (3-0) at Raymond James Stadium.

The Hurricanes are red hot this season behind the emergence of quarterback Cam Ward. Most recently, they dominated Ball State, winning 62-0.

USF made waves for the second straight season by taking Alabama to the limit in Week 2. Granted, the score looks a lot worse, but the Bulls had the Tide dead to rights a few times. Additionally, last week, they came out with a convincing win against Southern Mississippi.

Miami is favored by 16.5 points on the spread while the over/under is 65. Meanwhile, the Canes are -850 on the moneyline.

Where does the betting value lie? Read more for my Miami vs. USF prediction.

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Miami vs USF Odds, Spread, Prediction

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  • Miami vs USF Spread: Miami -17.5 · USF +17.5
  • Miami vs USF Total: Over/Under 64.5 Points
  • Miami vs USF Moneyline: Miami ML -900 · USF ML +590

My USF vs. Miami best bet is for the Hurricanes to cover the spread. Click here to find the best line on our live NCAAF odds page.

  • Miami vs USF Pick: Miami -16.5

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Miami Football

Is Ward going to win the Heisman? That seems to be the popular talking point four weeks into the season.

The senior quarterback is posting dynamite numbers through three games, ranking second in the FBS in passing yards and completing 73% of his passes.

That’s not to say he hasn’t had help, because his receivers have come in handy. Xavier Restrepo is averaging almost 19 yards per catch and has four receiving touchdowns.

Additionally, Isaiah Horton, Jacolby George and Elijah Arroyo make up a four-headed monster at receiver that’s among the most explosive group in the country.

Miami has also had a ton of rushing help with Damien Martinez, Ajay Allen, Jordan Lyle and Mark Fletcher Jr. all averaging more than 5.5 yards per carry. It’s a little insane how dynamic these numbers are, yet the Hurricanes are only 16th in Rushing Success Rate.

Defensively, the Hurricanes are exceptional. They stop the pass at an elite level and are ranked fourth in Havoc generated.

The one thing I worry about is their inability to stop the run against semi-decent programs. They handled both Ball State and Florida A&M with ease, but allowed over 100 rushing yards to Florida’s Montrell Johnson Jr. in Week 1.

USF Football

The Bulls, led by Alex Golesh, are starting to become a legitimate program. I think the one thing holding them back is the quarterback play.

Byrum Brown is a freak of an athlete, but as a passer, he’s underwhelming with a 55% completion rate. He does most of his damage with his legs and leads the team in rushing yards.

To top it off, USF has some of the worst underlying passing metrics in the FBS. Just how bad? USF is 113th in passing success rate and 126th in PPA.

Brown has Sean Atkins as his favorite receiver, but against Miami, I can’t see either of them making an impact through the air.

Yes, Brown leads the team in rushing yards, but the Bulls also have solid options in the backfield with Kelley Joiner, Nay’Quan Wright and Ta’Ron Keith — all of whom average more than five yards per carry.

A Golesh-coached team isn’t going to be ineffective on the defensive end. The Bulls do a bang-up job in every facet, including ranking 31st against the run. Additionally, they’re ranked 10th in Havoc generated, which should be interesting since Miami is 11th in Havoc allowed.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and USF match up statistically:

Miami Offense vs. USF Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 16 30
Line Yards 2 10
Pass Success 14 63
Havoc 11 11
Finishing Drives 27 77
Quality Drives 13 52
USF Offense vs. Miami Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 54 74
Line Yards 41 15
Pass Success 114 1
Havoc 40 1
Finishing Drives 64 49
Quality Drives 114 18
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 29 115
PFF Coverage 1 48
Special Teams SP+ 71 26
Middle 8 2 116
Seconds per Play 29.0 (96) 21.9 (5)
Rush Rate 48% (84) 62% (34)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I’m a little surprised to see the total listed at 65. While USF can put Miami to the test, I don’t think this game will be the shootout that the books seem to expect.

That, or they think Miami is going to throttle the Bulls — which could very well happen.

I see a lot of value in the spread, though, as Miami is clearly the superior team and USF’s aerial attack is next to invisible.

The Hurricanes have a lot of difference makers on the defensive side of the ball in Tyler Baron, Francisco Mauigoa and Elijah Alston, who I believe can keep the USF run game at bay.

With Ward manning the pocket and the explosive nature of Miami’s offense, I think the Hurricanes can dominate the Bulls.

Pick: Miami -16.5

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How to Watch Miami vs USF Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21
Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN

Miami vs USF Betting Trends

  • 84% of the tickets generated and 83% of the money is on Miami to cover.
  • 81% of bets and 95% of the money is on the under.

Miami vs USF Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226675″ date=”2024-09-21″][/gameforecast]

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Greg Liodice

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