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Memphis vs Temple Odds & Pick: AAC Betting Guide

Let’s take a look at the Memphis vs. Temple odds and make a pick for Friday’s American Athletic Conference showdown.

Memphis Tigers vs Temple Owls Odds

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The Memphis Tigers and Temple Owls enter this matchup with opposite records: the Tigers boast an 8-3 record, while the Owls are 3-8.

Memphis has scored 34 or more points in its past five games, four of which were victories. It dropped its most recent matchup to SMU, 38-34.

Temple has also played SMU this season, and the Owls’ final result was much different: a 55-0 loss.

Another commonality between these two teams is an inability to cover or beat the spread. Both teams have covered only three games this year.

The Tigers team has played in many close games this season as a favorite. In fact, they’ve failed to cover in three straight.

Temple has managed to keep its last three games close after consistently getting blown out, including an outright win over Navy as a 6.5-point ‘dog. It lost by four against USF and managed to keep it to 10 against UAB. This is a vast improvement from earlier in the season when four-score blowouts were the norm.

The question is: is this Temple team truly competitive now? And can it keep it close against a Tigers team that has shown a willingness to keep inferior opponents around late in ball games?

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The Tigers’ efficient offense has terrorized the American Athletic Conference for years. This season, the Tigers rank 29th in Success Rate, 27th in Explosiveness and 18th in Points per Opportunity.

The numbers are primarily driven by their passing game. Memphis ranks 23rd in Pass Success Rate and 28th in total Passing PPA. They’re aware of their strength, as they dial up pass on 55% of their offensive plays, good for 22nd in the country.

Quarterback Seth Henigan has been the driver behind this impressive passing attack.

Henigan had a solid season last year, posting an 80 Pro Football Focus passing grade, but he’s built upon that by posting an 82 PFF passing grade this season. Look for him to have a nice day against a shaky Temple secondary.

Memphis helps itself by staying ahead of the sticks. The Tigers stay in Standard Downs at the 15th-highest rate nationally. This indicates they’re consistently keeping third downs in manageable situations or avoiding them altogether.

The best way to do that is to keep pass rushers off your quarterback, which avoids turnovers, and Memphis ranks 41st in Havoc allowed.

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This Owls defense may be in trouble against this prolific Memphis passing attack.

Temple’s advanced defensive metrics are not ideal, as they rank 104th in Success Rate allowed, 128th in Points per Opportunity allowed and 122nd in Havoc generated.

The Owls rank 110th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 126th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. They let quarterbacks stand in the pocket and get comfortable because they don’t make them uncomfortable with pressure.

If Temple can’t get to Henigan, it will be a long day for the secondary.

Look for Temple to return the ball to Memphis quickly, as the Owls rank 115th in Standard Downs rate. I was saying Memphis was great at staying ahead of the sticks, and that’s what Temple struggles with the most. I anticipate a lot of short drives and quick punts for Temple on Saturday.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and Temple match up statistically:

Memphis Offense vs. Temple Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 41 91
Line Yards 105 100
Pass Success 23 132
Havoc 72 132
Finishing Drives 18 126
Quality Drives 59 131
Temple Offense vs. Memphis Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 127 97
Line Yards 121 88
Pass Success 76 44
Havoc 38 17
Finishing Drives 113 110
Quality Drives 71 73
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 128 54
PFF Coverage 86 120
Special Teams SP+ 60 123
Middle 8 29 128
Seconds per Play 26.2 (49) 24.2 (16)
Rush Rate 46.6% (108) 40.1% (128)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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While Memphis has struggled to separate itself from inferior opponents this season, Friday should be the exception.

The Tigers’ passing attack will be far too much for the Owls’ defense, and I expect them to score quickly and often by moving the ball down the field through the air.

I’m betting on Memphis, and I’m also looking at Henigan over 316.5 passing yards.

Pick: Memphis -13

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