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College Football Odds & Picks for Memphis vs Missouri: Which Tigers Will Cover?

Memphis vs Missouri Odds

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Memphis and Missouri meet in St. Louis on Saturday in a clash of Tigers. Both teams are looking to build off of victories last week, but the difference in these victories is essential to note.

After Mizzou took a critical delay of game penalty, kicker Harrison Mevis drilled a 61-yard field goal as time expired to propel the Tigers to an upset win over the Kansas State Wildcats.

Memphis also narrowly escaped with a victory over Navy, where the Tigers barely outgained the Midshipmen. Because that game was on Thursday, Memphis has a rest advantage over Missouri.

Let’s look at both teams and uncover the best betting value. Find our betting pick, preview and prediction for Memphis vs. Missouri below.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Memphis Tigers” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/mem.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/memphis-tigers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Memphis easily could’ve lost last week, and I don’t think that should be overlooked.

This is a game where the Tigers can make a statement against an SEC opponent. I expect a much more focused effort.

Despite a few turnovers, quarterback Seth Henigan has been sharp this season. He’s completing 71% of his passes, which is important against a Mizzou secondary that has struggled thus far. Memphis is 17th in Passing Success Rate, whereas Mizzou’s defense is 74th.

This is a massive part of the handicap, considering that Memphis doesn’t run the ball often, and I doubt that changes here. Mizzou has a stout defensive front and is a top-five team in the nation in Defensive Line Yards. I don’t expect Memphis to get much movement up front, but I think the Tigers will find some success through the air.

Conversely, the Memphis defense has been a pleasant surprise. The Tigers are the No. 1 team in the nation in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 10th in Havoc.

Memphis loves to attack the quarterback, which will be pivotal against Mizzou signal-caller Brady Cook, who enters this matchup with a banged-up knee. I expect the Memphis secondary to remain stout and force Mizzou to become one-dimensional. If Cook can’t move like he usually does, Memphis’ front has an even more significant edge.

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Mevis shouldn’t ever have to buy a drink in Columbia again after delivering such a clutch kick.

However, the energy and emotions poured into last weekend’s matchup against a ranked opponent may result in a letdown this weekend.

I am also concerned about Cook’s knee, as he’ll most likely suit up regardless of injury. That wouldn’t be a big deal if Cook didn’t rely on using his legs, but he is an integral part of this Mizzou running attack.

The Tigers abandoned the run last week when they couldn’t get anything going against the Kansas State defensive front. Cook loves to get involved with read-option keepers, but that may be eliminated from his arsenal if his mobility is limited. We’ll be able to tell right away how healthy he is.

The injury report also includes a few key weapons at wide receiver and running back, impacting how the Tigers can move the ball in this matchup. Despite Memphis’ poor PFF Tackling grade, this defense can bully this SEC team if Mizzou starts slowly.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and Missouri match up statistically:

Memphis Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 75 10
Line Yards 90 5
Pass Success 17 74
Havoc 60 55
Finishing Drives 45 110
Quality Drives 79 60
Missouri Offense vs. Memphis Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 49 41
Line Yards 109 66
Pass Success 36 1
Havoc 80 10
Finishing Drives 39 24
Quality Drives 65 5
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 80 40
PFF Coverage 4 69
Special Teams SP+ 20 109
Middle 8 16 10
Seconds per Play 27.5 (79) 26.7 (67)
Rush Rate 53.0% (76) 58.5% (39)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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After the emotional rollercoaster of last week’s win, don’t expect Mizzou to cover the number. This is a terrific spot for Memphis, and I love that Memphis is catching nearly a touchdown.

Expect Memphis to set the tone on the defensive side of the ball, and Mizzou’s inability to establish any rushing attack will make its offense one-dimensional.

This is precisely what Memphis wants, and the defense will feast on those third-and-long situations. On top of that, Cook is not 100% healthy, which prevents me from having confidence in this Mizzou offense.

There are many advantages for Memphis on defense, and Memphis should succeed through the air against a weak Mizzou secondary. Expect Memphis to bounce back in St. Louis, keeping this game close and potentially winning outright.

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