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maryland terrapins vs minnesota golden gophers-prediction-pick-odds-college football-saturday october 26

Maryland vs Minnesota Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, October 26

Two middle of the pack Big Ten teams will square off when the 4-3 Maryland Terrapins travel to the 4-3 Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Both squads are coming off big upset wins. The Terrapins bounced back from a pair of blowout losses to defeat the USC Trojans at home, 29-28, thanks to a wild comeback. The Gophers also upset USC before getting a win out west on the road at UCLA, 21-17.

Now back at home, Minnesota is a 4-point favorite against Maryland and has gone 5-1-1 against the spread this season, including 3-0 as a favorite.

Will that success continue here? Well, here’s my Maryland vs Minnesota predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.

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  • Maryland vs Minnesota Pick: Maryland +5

My Maryland vs Minnesota best bet is on the Terps spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Maryland vs Minnesota Odds, Spread, Lines

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  • Maryland vs Minnesota Point Spread: Maryland +5 (-110) · Minnesota -5 (-110)
  • Maryland vs Minnesota Total: Over/Under 46.5
  • Maryland vs Minnesota Moneyline: Maryland +165 · Minnesota -200

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Maryland Terrapins Betting Preview: Edwards + Felton

Most people expected transfer MJ Morris to win the Maryland quarterback job out of camp, but instead, it was backup Billy Edwards Jr. who was tasked with replacing Taulia Tagovailoa.

So far, he’s filled the shoes pretty flawlessly.

Edwards has thrown 13 touchdown passes to just four interceptions and leads the Big Ten with 301.9 passing yards per game. He’s completing over 70% of his passes and is coming off a career high in passing in a comeback win over USC.

A big reason for Edwards’ success has been his connection with Tai Felton. The Terps’ top target leads the conference with 64 catches and 114.7 receiving yards per game. Together, they’ve led Maryland to a top-40 ranking in Pass Success Rate.

Maryland’s defense hasn’t been completely dreadful, but it’s below average across the board. The Terps rank outside of the top 60 in Success Rate allowed; however, they’ve been better against the run, which is something they’ll need in this matchup.

Their strength is up front with defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Kellan Wyatt. The Terps have strong tacklers in the secondary, but they’ll need the defensive line to clog up the middle and keep this Minnesota rushing attack at bay.

Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Strength Lies in Running Game

After having high hopes for QB Athan Kaliakmanis (now on Rutgers), the Gophers moved on to New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer. While Brosmer has been better, I’m not sure he’s lived up to expectations either.

Brosmer has eight touchdowns and four interceptions on the year and is averaging just over 200 years per game.

The strength of this Golden Gophers team continues to be its running game, which has been the case for years.

Sophomore Darius Taylor had a terrific freshman season cut short, but he’s come back to average 72 yards per game with six touchdowns in six games.

New defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman replaced Joe Rossi, and the defense hasn’t dropped off. The Gophers run the same 3-3-5 scheme and have been solid once again, ranking top-40 in Success Rate against the rush and pass.

Minnesota has allowed more than 20 points just twice all season and is holding its opponents to just 4.4 yards per play.

The Gophers are led by star linebacker Cody Lindenberg in the middle, and they also have Jah Joyner as their best pass rusher.

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Maryland vs Minnesota Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Maryland and Minnesota match up statistically:

Maryland Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 82 51
Line Yards 106 54
Pass Success 41 6
Havoc 79 32
Finishing Drives 69 37
Quality Drives 58 26
Minnesota Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 36 62
Line Yards 101 27
Pass Success 40 86
Havoc 60 90
Finishing Drives 47 73
Quality Drives 48 56
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 82 79
PFF Coverage 101 18
Special Teams SP+ 95 111
Middle 8 50 46
Seconds per Play 25.6 (37) 30.0 (123)
Rush Rate 44% (121) 50% (101)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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These two teams have had very similar seasons. They’re both 4-3 and are coming off a good win in their last outing. Maryland has been better on offense, while Minnesota has been better on defense.

Maryland is better against the run, which is what Minnesota wants to do, and Minnesota is better against the pass, which is what Maryland wants to do.

I trust Edwards a lot more in this game than I do Brosmer. Edwards has been fantastic this season, as he leads the Big Ten in passing and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of his seven games.

Edwards leads the entire country with 21 big-time throws and is coming off his best game as a starter.

Minnesota has gotten pretty fortunate this season. It’s forced 15 turnovers on the year, the eighth-most in the country. The Gophers forced three turnovers against USC in their win and last week against UCLA, they were outgained by 100 yards.

Minnesota needed to win the turnover margin 3-0 after it managed just 234 total yards on offense and averaged 3.8 yards per play against a poor UCLA defense.

The list of passing attacks that the Gophers have faced this year is pathetic. North Carolina, which lost its quarterback midway through the game, Rhode Island, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, USC and UCLA. They’ve played one team that can even remotely throw the ball.

The way Edwards is playing right now, I think this number is too big, even if the Gophers have the situational advantage at home after a bye.

I’ll take the points and back the Terps at anything over a field goal.

Pick: Maryland +5 (-110, bet365)

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Location: Huntington Bank Stadium
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: FS1

Maryland takes on Minnesota at Huntington Bank Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

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  • 67% of the bets and 63% of the money is currently on Minnesota to cover the spread against Maryland.
  • 94% of the bets and 94% of the money is currently on the over.

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[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226958″ date=”2024-10-26″][/gameforecast]

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Mike Ianniello

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