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LSU vs. Texas A&M Odds, Prediction, Best Bets – NCAAF Week 9 Picks

There are six teams in the SEC conference standings sitting at 6-1, and two of them will face off when the No. 8 LSU Tigers (6-1, 3-0 SEC) hit the road for a second consecutive week to play the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (6-1, 4-0). The game will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, streaming live on YouTube TV, ESPN+ and other streaming apps.

The current odds have Texas A&M as consensus 1.5-point favorites over LSU on the spread (Texas A&M -1.5). The opening line made Texas A&M the favorite by 3 points, a number that was hit early by LSU wagers. The total is now over/under 54.5 points, having moved up 1 point since opening at 53.5. Texas A&M is -120 on the moneyline, with the Tigers +100.

The SEC is set to enter cannibalization mode with a number of national title contenders ready to face off. Week 9 will serve as a knockout game for the College Football Playoff, sending LSU or Texas A&M to two losses and in need of a sweep in November.

So, here are my LSU vs. Texas A&M predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 26.

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My Pick: LSU +2.5

My Texas A&M vs. LSU best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. However, the line has come down to LSU +1.5, and I prefer to bet this at Tigers +2.5.

For all of your college football bets, be sure to find the best lines with our live NCAAF odds page.

LSU vs. Texas A&M Odds

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  • LSU vs. Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M -1.5
  • LSU vs. Texas A&M over/under: 54.5 points
  • LSU vs. Texas A&M moneyline: Texas A&M -120, LSU +100
  • LSU vs Texas A&M best bet: LSU +2.5

Spread

I’m on LSU to cover, but at the right number. Let’s see how the market continues to move on Saturday.

Over/Under

I don’t have a bet on the total in this one, as the number has been fairly sticky throughout the week. It will be interesting to see if the slight movement on the total on Saturday continues.

Moneyline

In a game that is this close to being a coin flip, I don’t have a bet on the winner.

My Pick: LSU +2.5

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LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Trends to Know

  • 84% of bets and 65% of the money are on LSU to cover the spread
  • 85% of bets and 36% of the money on the moneyline are on Texas A&M to win outright
  • 71% of bets and 66% of the money are on the over

Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.

LSU vs. Texas A&M Start Time, TV Channel, Location

Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26
Kickoff Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ABC / YouTube TV, ESPN+

Texas A&M vs. LSU is set to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday live from Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. The game is on ABC and streaming on YouTube TV, ESPN+ and other streaming platforms.

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LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Havoc, Havoc, Havoc

The LSU defense continues to provide the Havoc needed to gain an extra edge on opponents. New defensive coordinator Blake Baker has massively improved the Tigers’ defense in a number of areas, specifically against the rush.

The nickel defense has been exceptional against counter and power run concepts, helping the Tigers achieve a top-30 mark in Success Rate against the rush.

Tackling fundamentals continue to be a staple, ranking top-25 ranking, as linebackers Whit Weeks and Greg Penn III have led the team in the absence of Harold Perkins Jr.

Baker’s complex scheme flashed an “I Formation” defensively against Arkansas, disguising a quarterback spy.

LSU is looking to get creative against opponents in known passing downs, as it’s fallen outside the top 100 in Success Rate against the pass. A mix of man, Cover 1 and Cover 3 have produced limited results with a coverage grade of 88th, per PFF.

The great news for LSU is its ability to produce Havoc, as it generates the 13th-best pass rush in the nation.

Opponents are also averaging less than three points across 41 possessions when crossing the LSU 40-yard line, giving Baker’s defense a rank of 13th in Finishing Drives.

Offensively, the rise of Caden Durham at running back continues to pay dividends. The freshman tallied three rushing touchdowns against Arkansas while raising his average to 3.2 yards after first contact.

Meanwhile, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate. The senior has more than doubled his big-time-throw-to-turnover-worthy-play rate, generating 18 passing touchdowns and more than 2,200 yards through seven games.

However, explosive plays can be sparse, with only a single run and pass going for more than 20 yards against Arkansas.

Slot Aaron Anderson and wideout Kyren Lacy average over two yards per route run from an explosiveness standpoint, but they’ve combined for seven drops on the season.

Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview: Strong Ground Game

Quarterback Conner Weigman produced the worst results of his career against Mississippi State, generating four turnover-worthy throws on 25 passing attempts.

Timing and inaccuracy issues were cited as the reasons for the mistakes in Starkville, as Weigman continues to recover from a shoulder injury from earlier in the season.

The great news for the Texas A&M offense is it has a trench that’s moving the pile against every opponent. In fact, the Aggies rank 11th in Line Yards and 10th in Stuff Rate.

Running back Le’Veon Moss has enjoyed the boost in Line Yards provided by the offensive line, as they’ve opened up some of the largest rushing holes in the SEC.

Similar to LSU, this is one of the most chaotic defenses in college football. The nickel package rotates between three- and four-man fronts depending on down and distance, and the Aggies are 10th-best in Havoc.

Missed tackles have been a constant for the Aggies this season and are a key indicator in close games. The Aggies missed 27 tackles in close contests against Arkansas and Mississippi State while limiting the number to just 13 in bigger margins of victory against Florida and Missouri.

LSU’s ability to create missed tackles will be paramount to getting chunk yardage at the second level against the Texas A&M defense.

LSU vs. Texas A&M Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Texas A&M match up statistically:

LSU Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 92 19
Line Yards 69 8
Pass Success 9 47
Havoc 3 10
Finishing Drives 29 29
Quality Drives 8 42
Texas A&M Offense vs. LSU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 35 28
Line Yards 11 38
Pass Success 70 106
Havoc 4 3
Finishing Drives 49 16
Quality Drives 52 64
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 21 65
PFF Coverage 88 80
Special Teams SP+ 25 21
Middle 8 59 44
Seconds per Play 27.9 (83) 29.3 (115)
Rush Rate 40% (126) 63% (11)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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There aren’t many soft spots in the Texas A&M defense, but the middle of the unit is the place to attack for opposing offenses.

The Aggies’ defensive EPA is top-35 — along with one of the best pass rushes in the nation — but the unit lacks a strong coverage grade thanks to passes over the middle.

Nussmeier has one of the highest passing grades nationally on throws between 10 and 19 yards, per PFF.

Additionally, nearly half of Anderson’s 46 targets have come in the last three games, producing an average depth of target of 17 yards per catch over the past two outings. Despite a drop in all of the past three games, Anderson’s receiving yards prop is worth an investment.

The biggest question circles around Weigman against an LSU pass defense that’s shown improvement. PFF graded the South Alabama and UCLA games as disasters from a coverage standpoint, while a Week 7 win over Ole Miss was by far the best game the LSU defense has played against the pass.

The hot pass coverage then continued against Arkansas.

Weigman may find pockets of success, but the Tigers have been ruthless when it comes to opponent scoring attempts.

The Action Network projections make Texas A&M a favorite by a point, prompting opening wagers on LSU over a field goal. While the point spread has less value on LSU under the key number of 3, the Tigers still have advantages offensively with Nussmeier leading the team.

A rising defense, led by Weeks, should be the difference in a rowdy Kyle Field upset.

Pick: LSU +2.5 or Better

College Football Week 9 Weather

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