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Louisville vs NC State Odds, Prediction: Back Friday’s Road Favorite

Louisville vs NC State Odds

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The ACC takes center stage Friday night as the undefeated Louisville Cardinals go on the road to take on the 3-1 NC State Wolfpack.

The Cardinals have been rolling early on this season, as their offense looks revitalized with transfer Jack Plummer under center.

However, Plummer is not the only prized QB transfer in this matchup, as the Wolfpack are led by Brennan Armstrong. Armstrong is back under coordinator Robert Anae, who was the mastermind behind Armstrong’s breakout season at Virginia.

We have yet to see Armstrong return to form under Anae this season, but that could all change in this matchup.

With the stage set and the lights shining bright, let’s dive into this matchup to see which side you should be on.

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I mentioned Plummer in the intro, and while he’s had success early on, much of it has to be credited to running back Jawhar Jordan and the offensive line.

The Cardinals run the ball at the 16th-highest rate in the country, and how could you not feed Jordan? He’s averaging a staggering 9.6 yards per carry while also finding paydirt six times in four games.

Jordan and the Cardinals should continue to find success on the ground in this matchup. The big boys up front will have the edge in Line Yards, and the Wolfpack haven’t been all that great against the run, ranking 82nd in yards per carry allowed.

However, NC State can’t just load the box because the run game has done a great job of setting up the Louisville passing game this season. Plummer is third in the country in yards per pass, averaging over 11 yards per completion.

The Wolfpack are 81st in coverage rating and rank 97th in yards per pass allowed, so the Cardinals are in line for offensive success, no matter what scheme they deploy in this matchup.

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When you look at the NC State offense, you have to key in on Armstrong. I highlighted the connection he has with his offensive coordinator, but we haven’t seen a renaissance from Armstrong thus far.

He’s 118th in completion percentage and 110th in yards per pass. While he’ll have a solid matchup in front of him against the Louisville secondary, it remains to be seen if he can capitalize.

The biggest issue is NC State’s offensive line. The unit is 45th in pass blocking and 69th in run blocking, per PFF. This has caused Armstrong to scramble on many dropbacks, and it has led to the Wolfpack averaging just 3.9 yards per carry on the ground.

While the Cardinals’ defensive line hasn’t generated much pressure on the quarterback, it’ll have the Line Yards advantage, so NC State needs Armstrong to get going if it wants to hang around in this one.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and NC State match up statistically:

Louisville Offense vs. NC State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 5 46
Line Yards 26 37
Pass Success 19 68
Havoc 27 43
Finishing Drives 15 99
Quality Drives 8 55
NC State Offense vs. Louisville Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 12 51
Line Yards 28 23
Pass Success 73 74
Havoc 51 107
Finishing Drives 35 96
Quality Drives 50 25
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 5 61
PFF Coverage 78 81
Special Teams SP+ 41 32
Middle 8 75 21
Seconds per Play 28.0 (84) 26.0 (51)
Rush Rate 59.2% (16) 53.4% (57)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.

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This matchup has been hovering around the key number of three all week.

However, it’s been bet up to 3.5 at the time of writing, and that’s a testament to the market’s confidence in Louisville on the road here.

They have good reason to be confident, as Louisville has been firing on all cylinders offensively and should face very few roadblocks in this matchup.

As for NC State, Armstrong will have to prove himself, but he hasn’t given us much to be inspired by.

Back the Cardinals to get the job done on Friday.

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Doug Ziefel

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