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louisville-vs-kentucky-prediction-pick-odds Pictured: Tyler Shough

Louisville vs Kentucky Prediction, Pick, Odds, How To Watch College Football Saturday

We’ve got a rivalry matchup between the two major universities in the Bluegrass State on Saturday.

Kentucky (4-7) has won the last five in this series and has, quite frankly, been the more physical team when these two have squared off recently.

Louisville (7-4) will look to change that this year and secure its eighth victory of the season in the process. The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites on the spread with a 49-point over/under.

Can Kentucky end a frustrating season on a high note? Or will Louisville finally get it done in Lexington?

My Louisville vs. Kentucky predictions and college football picks are below.

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  • Louisville vs. Kentucky Pick: Louisville -4

My Louisville vs. Kentucky best bet is on the Cardinals to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Louisville vs Kentucky Odds, Spread

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  • Louisville vs Kentucky Point Spread: Louisville -4 (-110) · Kentucky +4 (-110)
  • Louisville vs Kentucky Total: Over/Under 49.5
  • Louisville vs Kentucky Moneyline: Louisville -185 · Kentucky +155

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Aside from a game against Stanford that the Cardinals absolutely gave away, Louisville’s other losses have come against top-ten teams: Notre Dame, Miami and SMU.

The Cardinals also won at Clemson and have shown flashes of being a high-level football team at various points this season.

The pass defense has held the team back all year, as opposing quarterbacks have been able to find big plays down the field against a suspect secondary room.

The good news in this matchup?

Kentucky is not a great passing team and will be trotting out a freshman quarterback with little experience.

Expect the Cardinal defense to sell out in stopping the run, forcing Kentucky into third-and-long situations.

Louisville is physical enough up front to be successful in doing that, which will put the Wildcat offense behind schedule and in trouble.

On the other side of the ball, this will be the final regular season game in the extended career of quarterback Tyler Shough.

The Oregon and Texas Tech transfer has been solid all year, throwing for over 3,000 yards with a 23:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Shough will want to go out on a high note, and I think he will, facing a Kentucky defense that is not as strong as it has been in the Mark Stoops era.

In addition to his arm, Shough should have some rushing lanes in the read option game and on scrambles, which can be key drive extenders.

The Cardinals can score plenty in this matchup.

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The win over Ole Miss in Oxford was a great moment early in the year, but Kentucky has struggled throughout this season.

It starts with poor quarterback play, as Brock Vandagriff has been inefficient and turnover-prone.

Last week at Texas, Stoops turned it over to freshman Cutter Boley, who showed flashes of potential but looked overwhelmed at various points.

All signs point toward Boley getting the nod this week, which will be a difficult spot for a first-career start against a quality defense in a rivalry game.

The Wildcat offensive line has also struggled to get a consistent push-up front, which has slowed the running game, particularly against physically opposing defenses.

Physical and swarming defense has been a staple of Kentucky over the last five to ten years.

That’s remained the case for Kentucky for much of this season, but after a slew of injuries, the Wildcats aren’t the same on that side of the ball.

That spells trouble against a Louisville offense with playmakers on the perimeter and plenty of balance in Jeff Brohm’s offense.

For the Wildcats to have a chance in this one, they need to inspire the home crowd early and force a couple of turnovers.

Louisville vs Kentucky Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Kentucky match up statistically:

Louisville Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 19 112
Line Yards 69 54
Pass Success 30 46
Havoc 15 46
Finishing Drives 41 36
Quality Drives 4 47
Kentucky Offense vs. Louisville Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 26 36
Line Yards 74 44
Pass Success 121 70
Havoc 123 60
Finishing Drives 99 103
Quality Drives 81 52
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 67 66
PFF Coverage 59 43
Special Teams SP+ 110 10
Middle 8 7 45
Seconds per Play 26.8 (57) 28.3 (100)
Rush Rate 47% (107) 59% (42)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How To Bet My Louisville vs Kentucky Pick & Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

I think this is the year Louisville ends the losing streak to Kentucky.

The Cardinals are the better football team on both sides of the ball, and I think many associated with the Kentucky program are simply counting down the days until the 2024 season ends.

Kentucky fought admirably at Texas last week, but the Wildcats are depleted on both sides of the ball, making it difficult to turn around and play with the same fire now that they are no longer bowl-eligible.

The Cards will score their share of points, and the Cats won’t be able to keep pace.

Give me Louisville to win and cover in Lexington.

Pick: Louisville -4

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Location: Kroger Field
Date: Saturday, Nov. 30
Kickoff Time: 12 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: SEC Network

Louisville vs Kentucky will be played at Kroger Field on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on SEC Network.

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Mike McNamara

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