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Louisiana Tech vs UTEP Odds, Picks: Close Game on Deck?

Louisiana Tech vs UTEP Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Louisiana-Tech-Logo-100.png” awayname=”Louisiana Tech” awayslug=”louisiana-tech-bulldogs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tep.png” homename=”UTEP” homeslug=”utep-miners” date=”Friday, Sept. 29″ time=”9 p.m. ET” network=”CBS Sports Network” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-1″ col1awayline=”-105″ col1hometext=”+1″ col1homeline=”-115″ col2awaytext=”50.5″ col2hometext=”50.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”-115″ col3hometext=”-105″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

This Friday night, Louisiana Tech (2-3) will travel to the Sun Bowl to take on the UTEP Miners (1-4). This will be the second CUSA game for both squads as they both look to creep back toward .500.

One of these teams may have recently found the spark it needed to set itself apart in a backup quarterback. With this game basically set at a pick’em, there’s one team that I think is more talented with more upside than the other.

So, where does the betting value lie in this Friday night matchup? Let’s dive into the odds for Louisiana Tech vs. UTEP and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 30.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Louisiana Tech Bulldogs” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Louisiana-Tech-Logo-100.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/louisiana-tech-bulldogs” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

The big question heading into this matchup for Louisiana Tech is in regard to the health of quarterback Hank Bachmeier. He missed last weekend’s game against Nebraska due to a shoulder injury, paving the way for Jack Turner to make his first career start.

Turner was very impressive, especially playing against a defense the caliber of Nebraska’s. Turner went 27-of-41 for 296 yards with an EPA per play of 0.19 in this matchup against a Power 5 opponent. He also added another six carries for 28 yards and a touchdown.

The status of Bachmeier for this weekend is still unknown, but sticking with Turner may be wise for the future of this program.

On the year, Louisiana Tech ranks 90th in Offensive Success Rate and 91st in Finishing Drives. While the Bulldogs haven’t been the most efficient unit, they have been explosive, ranking 35th in offensive explosiveness.

This may not be a great offensive unit, but they’ve shown some promise and they do seem to have much more upside if Turner were to play.

Defensively, this has been one of the worst teams in the country so far. LA Tech ranks 129th in SP+ and 109th in rushing Success Rate.

Its major bright spot has been the passing defense, which ranks 22nd in PPA and 14th in Success Rate. However, big plays have been an issue on this side of the ball, as the Bulldogs come in at 120th in passing explosiveness allowed.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”UTEP Miners” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tep.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/utep-miners” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

UTEP has started the year 1-4 with its lone win coming over FCS Incarnate Word. Outside of this game, only one other contest has even been close. The Miners have been beaten down by Northwestern, Arizona, and most recently, UNLV.

Dana Dimel’s squad ranks 119th in SP+, and its offense is among the worst in the country at 127th. The Miners have the 85th-best Offensive Success Rate and rank 67th in Finishing Drives.

They run the ball at the 58th-highest rate — which is almost directly in the middle of the pack — and they have the 68th-best Success Rate in the country when doing so. Avoiding Louisiana Tech’s strong secondary will be crucial, so finding success on the ground will be key.

The Miners rank 85th in Success Rate, but they’ve been ultra-explosive, ranking 35th in passing explosiveness and 50th in PPA. While these aren’t terrible numbers, Louisiana Tech’s passing defense is the best unit in the game and should be able to shut down Gavin Hardison and Co.

Defensively, UTEP has struggled as well, sitting 104th in Success Rate and 106th in Finishing Drives. The Miners are also just 123rd in Havoc, making things even easier on opposing offenses.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisiana Tech and UTEP match up statistically:

Louisiana Tech Offense vs. UTEP Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 80 107
Line Yards 105 103
Pass Success 98 107
Havoc 111 118
Finishing Drives 92 105
Quality Drives 72 106
UTEP Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 67 110
Line Yards 58 110
Pass Success 86 21
Havoc 69 60
Finishing Drives 56 93
Quality Drives 70 85
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 35 101
PFF Coverage 9 95
Special Teams SP+ 79 130
Middle 8 35 98
Seconds per Play 26.9 (68) 29.0 (101)
Rush Rate 49.4% (85) 57.7% (47)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Louisiana Tech vs UTEP” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

The X-factor for me in this game is Turner. If he plays and does as well as he did last weekend, I think Louisiana Tech could run away with this game.

Even if the Bulldogs’ passing attack doesn’t perform as well, their passing defense is still the biggest strength of either team in this game and will be able to keep them in this.

I think LA Tech is the better team here and would take it to emerge victorious on the road. I’d bet the Bulldogs up to -2.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Louisiana Tech +1 (Play to -2)” linktext=”Bet LT Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.397618136&selectionId=673443&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Cody Goggin

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