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College Football Pick for Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State (November 18)

Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State Odds

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Jacksonville State hosts Louisiana Tech for Senior Day on Saturday afternoon.

The Gamecocks have excelled in their step up to the FBS level this season as they’re 7-3 overall and and 5-1 in C-USA.

Meanwhile, this will be the final game in what has been a poor year for the 3-8 Bulldogs.

JSU isn’t eligible for the conference title game, but can make a bowl game if there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams. I like the FBS newcomer to continue its great season here, so continue reading for my Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State pick.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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On the surface, it doesn’t seem like coach Sonny Cumbie’s team has much to play for here. However, Louisiana Tech can eclipse its win total from the past two seasons with a victory.

The Bulldogs will need quarterback Hank Bachmeier to continue his late-season form as the Boise State transfer threw for a season-high 384 yards last week in a loss against Sam Houston State.

Bachmeier is lucky to have two great targets to throw to in Smoke Harris and Cyrus Allen as LA Tech is one of just 10 teams in the country with a pair of 700-yards receivers on the season.

On the defensive side of the ball, Willie Roberts was recently named a Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist. He ranks third nationally in pass breakups (12) and fourth in passes defended (13).

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Veteran coach Rich Rodriguez is showing he can still build a strong offensive team, and it all starts with a powerful run game.

On the season, Jacksonville State is averaging 218 rushing yards per game, which ranks second in C-USA and eighth nationally. The Gamecocks have also run for at least 100 yards in every contest under Rodriguez.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville State is also stout along the defensive line and has held its past three opponents under 100 yards rushing.

The defensive line also ranks in the top 15 in the country in both sacks (33) and tackles for loss (77). If the Gamecocks can make the Bulldogs one-dimensional on offense, it could lead to another dominant performance.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisiana Tech and Jacksonville State match up statistically:

Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 72 4
Line Yards 119 4
Pass Success 69 87
Havoc 109 30
Finishing Drives 51 51
Quality Drives 76 12
Jacksonville State Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 53 103
Line Yards 108 87
Pass Success 102 47
Havoc 48 48
Finishing Drives 85 125
Quality Drives 118 96
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 42 94
PFF Coverage 29 80
Special Teams SP+ 1 69
Middle 8 81 48
Seconds per Play 26.8 (63) 21.0 (1)
Rush Rate 48.6% (99) 64.5% (5)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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When I dove into this game, I saw a strong edge in the trenches for Jacksonville State.

So, my best bet is to take the Gamecocks against the spread (-8.5), which I would bet to -10.

We know Rodriguez’s team is going to want to establish the run game early and often. Well, that’s something the Bulldogs’ defense has struggled with all year.

LA Tech is in the bottom 10 among Non-Power 5 programs in both line yards and rush plays PPA on defense. This unit also ranks 125th in points per opportunity allowed.

I expect Jacksonville State quarterback Zion Webb to have a great game with his legs, and once the Gamecocks get across the 40-yard line, they should be able to convert those possessions into touchdowns.

Jacksonville State’s run game will also keep Louisiana Tech’s offense off the field.

I also don’t hate a look at the over in this game as Jacksonville State plays at the fastest tempo in the country, and I don’t see LA Tech getting many stops.

However, I’ll stick with just backing the home team to continue its great season with a convincing win on Senior Day.

Pick: Jacksonville State -8.5 (Play to -10)

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Brett Pund

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