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kent state golden flashes vs bowling green falcons-prediction-pick-odds-ncaaf-saturday october 19

Kent State vs Bowling Green Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for Saturday, October 19

Kent State (0-6) travels to take on Bowling Green (2-4) on Saturday, October 19.

The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN+.

Bowling Green is a 21-point favorite and the over/under is 56.

Where does the betting value lie? Check out my Kent State vs Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for this Week 8 NCAAF matchup.

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  • Kent State vs Bowling Green Pick: Under 54.5

My Kent State vs Bowling Green best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Kent State vs Bowling Green Odds, Spread, Lines

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  • Kent State vs Bowling Green Point Spread: Kent State +21 (-105) · Bowling Green -21 (-115)
  • Kent State vs Bowling Green Total: Over/Under 54.5
  • Kent State vs Bowling Green Moneyline: Kent State +900 · Bowling Green -1600

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Kent State Golden Flashes Betting Preview: More Competitive Offense

Kent State has been up against it this year with a brutal non-conference schedule and some of the worst talent in the MAC.

The Flashes have lost every game this season, including last week against Ball State.

Kent State has been more competitive against MAC competition, specifically on offense, where the Flashes have exceeded thirty points in their past two games.

A significant reason for the offensive output has been the play of quarterback Tommy Ulatowski, who has amassed 739 yards with a 7-2 touchdown to interception ratio across the past two weeks.

The Flashes’ defense remains a liability, as the unit can’t stop the run and is vulnerable to chunk plays.

Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Quarterback Uncertainty

Bowling Green was dominated in the trenches last week against NIU in a 17-7 loss.

Negative plays and penalties plagued the Falcons, who could never get in a rhythm offensively.

Quarterback Connor Bazelak was 8-for-14 passing with 88 yards and a touchdown to Harold Fannin Jr. before leaving the game early in the third quarter. Bazelak’s status for this week is up in the air as he battles the lingering leg injury.

Backup quarterback Lucian Anderson struggled, going 2-for-9 passing with 10 yards and an interception.

The Bowling Green defense contained NIU’s attack, as the Huskies averaged just 3.5 yards per carry.

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Kent State vs Bowling Green Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kent State and Bowling Green match up statistically:

Kent State Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 130 66
Line Yards 130 127
Pass Success 128 38
Havoc 130 113
Finishing Drives 107 53
Quality Drives 134 97
Bowling Green Offense vs. Kent State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 82 133
Line Yards 62 133
Pass Success 65 122
Havoc 110 133
Finishing Drives 78 126
Quality Drives 45 134
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 103 52
PFF Coverage 114 79
Special Teams SP+ 126 41
Middle 8 133 46
Seconds per Play 28.0 (82) 29.6 (120)
Rush Rate 54% (76) 49% (100)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I’m betting the under.

If the press conferences are to be believed, last week’s home loss to Northern Illinois was a wake-up call for Bowling Green. The offensive line has played soft, specifically in the run game. There should be a concerted effort from the Falcons to establish the run — they’ve amassed only 107 rushing yards per game at 3.1 YPC over the past three weeks.

Still, Kent State ranks 131st nationally in EPA per Rush allowed and 119th in Rush Success Rate allowed.

Bazelak’s injury is still an unknown. Even if he does play, I can’t imagine he’ll be 100%. If he’s out, the Falcons will turn to Anderson and likely run an ultra-conservative rush-heavy game plan.

Kent State played a shootout against Ball State, but the game was only 27-14 with seven minutes left in the fourth before the two combined for five quick scores. The Flashes did nothing for most of the game, and they’ll be facing a significantly tougher defense this week.

Kent State’s last two opponents, Ball State and Eastern Michigan, boast softer defenses that yield too many yards and points week in and week out. I suspect the recent Kent State offensive surge is based on poor competition rather than internal improvement.

The Flashes still rank sub-100th nationally in every major offensive statistical category, including 128th in EPA per Play, 124th in EPA per drop back, and 124th in Pass Success Rate.

Bowling Green should be locked in this week. The Falcons hang their hat on defense, and given the uncertainty at quarterback, they should run the ball constantly, draining the clock and resulting in a lower-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 54.5 (-110, bet365)

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Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, KY
Date: Saturday, Oct. 19
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN+

Kent State vs Bowling Green will be played at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Western Kentucky, on Saturday, Oct. 19 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN+.

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