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kansas state wildcats vs byu cougars-prediction-pick-odds-college football-saturday september 21

Kansas State vs. BYU Prediction, Picks, How to Watch & Betting Odds for College Football Week 4

We have a great matchup in what is now the Big 12 After Dark.

The No. 13 ranked Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) will take on the BYU Cougars (3-0) under the lights at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

The Kansas State Wildcats have opened up the season 3-0 and look to be genuine contenders for the Big 12 title. They passed their first conference test with flying colors in a 31-7 win over Arizona.

However, they’ll have another tough assignment with the BYU Cougars. The Cougars also come into this matchup undefeated and proved that they can’t be taken lightly after their upset win over SMU on the road.

Despite BYU proving their worth, the Wildcats are still touchdown favorites on the road. Kansas State enters as a -6.5 favorite, while the over/under sits at 48.

Let’s dive into my Kansas State vs BYU prediction and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21 to see which side of the spread you should be on.

 

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I’m backing the home team and taking the Cougars at +6.5.

  • BYU vs. Kansas State Prediction: BYU +6.5

 

Kansas State vs. BYU Odds, Spread, Line

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  • Kansas State vs. BYU Point Spread: Kansas State -7 · BYU +7
  • Kansas State vs. BYU Total: Over/Under 49.5 Total Points
  • Kansas State vs. BYU Moneyline: Kansas State ML -267 · BYU ML +215

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Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview

The Kansas State Wildcats have established the run game with authority this season. Through three games, they have run the ball over 60% of the time and have averaged 6.1 yards per rush.

That efficiency puts them at 11th in the country nationally, and they will be a test for the BYU defense. The Cougars have excelled at stopping the run, holding their opposition to just 2.5 yards per carry.

However, a closer look shows the Wildcats will outmatch them in the trenches. Kansas State ranks 16th nationally in Offensive Line Yards, while BYU ranks 55th in Defensive Line Yards.

The Wildcats’ big issue in this matchup will be converting on third through the air. We should expect BYU to load the box to slow the run game, but the BYU secondary has been solid.

The Cougars rank fourth in opponent completion percentage allowed and sixth in yards per pass allowed. If the Wildcats can run the ball on early downs, their offense won’t be on the field much in this matchup.

BYU Cougars Betting Preview

The BYU Cougars have been a pleasant surprise, as they have looked excellent on both sides of the ball. However, they have two big question marks entering this contest.

Both starting running backs, LJ Martin and Folau Ropati, are questionable for this game.

Their dynamic duo at running back has been key to their success, and they’ll be needed against a K-State defense that is 11th in defensive Line Yards and 22nd in Rush Success Rate allowed.

If one or both of them are out, the game will rest on the arm of quarterback Jake Retzlaff. However, there is some upside to Retzlaff and this passing attack.

Retzlaff has the Cougars throwing the ball with above-average success this season, and the Wildcats’ secondary has not looked great through three games. Kansas State ranks 104th in yards per pass allowed, 74th in opponent completion percentage, and 82nd in PFF’s coverage grading.

This game’s plan may have to be more pass-heavy than the Cougars would like, but it is also their best avenue for success.

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Kansas State vs. BYU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and BYU match up statistically:

Kansas State Offense vs. BYU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 24 47
Line Yards 16 55
Pass Success 77 8
Havoc 32 35
Finishing Drives 53 54
Quality Drives 43 47
BYU Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 89 22
Line Yards 66 11
Pass Success 55 102
Havoc 57 31
Finishing Drives 96 17
Quality Drives 75 42
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 9 83
PFF Coverage 82 31
Special Teams SP+ 39 46
Middle 8 75 33
Seconds per Play 28.1 (74) 29.9 (111)
Rush Rate 60% (32) 53% (58)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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This spread has hovered around a touchdown all week long. It has risen to +7.5 and has been as low as +6 in some spots.

I like the Cougars but wouldn’t play it lower than +6. They can move the ball through the air and should earn some stops if they limit the rushing attack.

Back the home ‘dog on Saturday night.

Pick: BYU +6.5 · Play to +6

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How to Watch BYU vs. Kansas State

Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21
Kickoff Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN

 

BYU-KSU Betting Trends

  • Kansas State is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS.
  • BYU is 3-0 SU and ATS.

 

 

College Football Weather: Kansas State vs. BYU Forecast

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