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kansas jayhawks vs texas longhorns-odds-picks-predictions-college football betting preview-saturday sept 30

NCAAF Odds, Picks, Predictions for Kansas vs. Texas

Kansas vs. Texas Odds

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The Kansas Jayhawks look for another upset in Austin when they take on the Texas Longhorns on Saturday.

Kansas outlasted BYU, 38-27, last Saturday to move to 4-0.

The last time Kansas went to Austin, the Jayhawks pulled off one of the biggest upsets in their history by winning outright as 31-point underdogs, 57-56, in overtime.

This time around, Kansas is a little bit shorter of an underdog, but the Jayhawks have an offense that can keep them in this game.

The Longhorns got a routine 38-6 win against Baylor in Waco last Saturday to move to 4-0 on the season. This is a big lookahead spot for Texas with Oklahoma coming up next week in the Red River Rivalry. However, Texas can’t take Kansas lightly after what happened two years ago.

Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Kansas vs. Texas below.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Kansas’ rushing attack is one of the most dynamic in the country. The Jayhawks are averaging over five yards per rush attempt, while ranking 24th in Rushing Success Rate and 10th in Offensive Line Yards.

Running back Devin Neal has continued to build off of a 1,000-yard season in 2022, as he already has almost 400 yards rushing, has forced 24 missed tackles and is averaging 3.5 yards per rush after contact.

Meanwhile, Kansas’ passing attack can be described with one word: efficient.

Last year, with Jalon Daniels under center, the Jayhawks led the country in EPA/Pass, with Daniels putting up crazy good numbers.

That’s continued into this season, as Daniels owns a 90.5 PFF Passing Grade in his three starts. Also, Kansas ranks third in Passing Success Rate and is once again among the top 10 in EPA/Pass.

The Jayhawks have maybe the craziest combination of defensive rankings in college football. They rank an elite fifth in generating Havoc, but they sit dead last nationally in Finishing Drives Allowed, as opponents have crossed their 40-yard line 10 times and scored 62 points on those drives.

This extremely talented Longhorns offense should score every time it gets into Jayhawk territory.

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Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers had a really efficient game against Baylor last Saturday, throwing for 293 yards on just 23 attempts.

He had a down game against Wyoming the week before, but still had the game of his life against Alabama, putting up 349 yards with three big-time throws and a 90.6 PFF Passing Grade.

Jonathon Brooks has been a very solid runner for the Longhorns by averaging 5.8 yards per carry and being an absolute pain to tackle. Brooks has already forced 25 missed tackles and is averaging 4.12 yards per carry after contact, which is ninth in college football for running backs with more than 50 carries.

Texas, however, doesn’t have great metrics as a team offensively. It’s 96th in Success Rate, 70th in EPA/Play and 73rd in Finishing Drives.

However, this is still a top-20 team in Explosiveness, which is important against a Kansas defense that ranks outside the top 100 in both Passing and Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.

Texas has one of the most stacked defensive units in college football. The Longhorns are tough to run against, as they’re only allowing 2.7 yards per carry and rank 11th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

However, opponents have found some success throwing against the Longhorns, who rank 67th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 78th in EPA/Pass Allowed.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Texas match up statistically:

Kansas Offense vs. Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 19 11
Line Yards 7 24
Pass Success 3 31
Havoc 29 77
Finishing Drives 45 10
Quality Drives 28 25
Texas Offense vs. Kansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 87 51
Line Yards 84 63
Pass Success 60 58
Havoc 42 1
Finishing Drives 73 132
Quality Drives 25 81
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 53 82
PFF Coverage 22 63
Special Teams SP+ 1 50
Middle 8 39 58
Seconds per Play 30.3 (121) 25.7 (45)
Rush Rate 60.7% (20) 54.0% (69)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Even though the Longhorns aren’t putting up the offensive metrics that we expected to this point in the season, they should still torch this Jayhawks defense that allowed over 300 yards passing to Kedon Slovis last week at home in windy conditions.

Plus, Kansas can’t stop anyone once opposing offenses cross the 40-yard line, so Texas should light up the scoreboard.

The flip side is Kansas has maybe one of the most dynamic and difficult offenses to prepare for in college football, given the amount of different formations and motions it uses.

Plus, having a dual-threat quarterback with Daniels’ ability takes it to the next level, which is why the Jayhawks are once again putting up incredibly efficient offensive numbers.

Both of these offenses are playing at a slightly above-average pace in terms of seconds per play, so I think we’ll see a high-scoring affair in Austin.

Take the over at 61 on FanDuel.

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