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james madison dukes vs old dominion monarchs-prediction-pick-odds-college football-nov 16

James Madison vs Old Dominion Prediction, Picks, Spread for College Football Week 12

The James Madison Dukes (7-2, 3-2 Sun Belt) head to Norfolk to take on the Old Dominion Monarchs (4-5, 3-2) in a Saturday afternoon Sun Belt showdown.

James Madison enters on a 2-game winning streak after an absolute demolition of Georgia State in a fantastic situational spot that doesn’t come around often.

Old Dominion, meanwhile, had its 3-game winning streak snapped in Week 10 with a 28-20 loss at Appalachian State. Coming off a bye week, the Monarchs will look to bounce back in the Belt.

James Madison enters as a -3 favorite with the over/under set at 52.

Let’s take a look at my James Madison vs. Old Dominion predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.

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  • James Madison vs. Old Dominion Pick: Old Dominion +3.5

My Old Dominion vs. James Madison best bet is on the Monarchs to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

James Madison vs Old Dominion Odds, Lines

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  • James Madison vs Old Dominion Spread: James Madison -3 (-110) · Old Dominion +3 (-110)
  • James Madison vs Old Dominion Over/Under: 52 Points
  • James Madison vs Old Dominion Moneyline: James Madison -143 · Old Dominion +118

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As far as preseason takes are concerned, I whiffed harder on Old Dominion than any other team. Its under 4.5 wins was one of my favorite win totals. While it still technically has life, that was the wrong call.

The Monarchs have been much better than I expected, especially since Colton Joseph took over at quarterback.

Four of their five losses have come by one possession, including an early season eye-opening performance at South Carolina in a four-point defeat. They also have a very impressive road win at Bowling Green.

The offensive line is still really poor, but the scheme under offensive coordinator Kevin Decker more than makes up for those deficiencies up front.

Decker and JMU head coach Bob Chesney have plenty of familiarity with each other from their Patriot League battles between 2019-22, which might actually provide Old Dominion with an edge since the Monarchs will be coming off a bye before a matchup I’m sure they’ve had circled since losing in heartbreaking fashion last year on the road against a then-undefeated Dukes squad.

This also looks like a good time to fade the Dukes after two blowout wins against two very bad teams in Southern Miss and Georgia State in one of the best situational spots of the season that I can’t believe I missed last week.

While the Dukes were coming off of a bye, Georgia State was playing its fourth straight road game. You don’t see that too often.

Meanwhile, Old Dominion lost its most recent game at Appalachian State despite finishing with nearly 500 yards of total offense (+98 net) primarily due to a -3 turnover margin.

I think the market perception of JMU is a bit inflated due to a few of those blowout wins this season, but its in-conference results on the road have been very underwhelming with a pair of outright losses as favorites against UL Monroe and Georgia Southern in which it scored 33 combined points.

The Dukes have also benefited from an absurd +18 turnover margin, which leads all of FBS. There’s certainly some looming turnover regression on the horizon. In comparison, ODU sits at -2 on the season.

Plus, the Monarchs’ run defense is very stout, which is the key to slowing down a JMU offensive attack that doesn’t have a consistent enough passing attack to exploit the ODU back end.

While Alonza Barnett’s numbers look great on the surface (21 touchdowns and three interceptions), he’s really regressed since a hot start, as teams have tape on him and this offense.

Through his first four games, he had 11 Big-Time Throws to just three Turnover-Worthy Plays, but he’s put up just a 1:1 ratio (6:6) since through five league games.

The JMU defense definitely has teeth, but it has really benefited from that aforementioned schedule and turnover luck. Plus, I think the best way to attack this unit is to spread it out, which ODU does as much as any team in the country.

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James Madison vs Old Dominion Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how James Madison and Old Dominion match up statistically:

James Madison Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 24 23
Line Yards 28 60
Pass Success 91 94
Havoc 38 62
Finishing Drives 76 24
Quality Drives 66 46
Old Dominion Offense vs. James Madison Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 74 12
Line Yards 43 15
Pass Success 98 8
Havoc 104 26
Finishing Drives 27 29
Quality Drives 121 7
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 52 113
PFF Coverage 12 96
Special Teams SP+ 20 85
Middle 8 56 105
Seconds per Play 26.4 (48) 24.3 (19)
Rush Rate 55% (67) 56% (53)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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For two years in a row, the Monarchs have done nothing but play close games with 17 of their 22 contests decided by one possession. This one should be no different in a matchup between two teams that have a minuscule chance of getting to the Sun Belt title game.

If anything, I’d give the motivation edge to ODU, which needs to win two of its final three games to get back to a bowl.

While the records might indicate a big gap between these two clubs, I don’t really see it. Keep in mind Old Dominion has had a significantly more difficult schedule (70th vs. 129th).

For what it’s worth, ODU head coach Ricky Rahne is 22-12 ATS (64.7%) as an underdog, covering by 5.5 points per game.That includes an impressive 15-6 ATS (71.4%) mark in league play, including 10 outright upsets in 21 tries with an average spread of +8.5.

I make this game less the a field goal, so I’ll snag the points with the home ‘dog.

Pick: Old Dominion +3.5 or Better

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James Madison vs Old Dominion Channel, Start Time, How to Watch

Location: S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA
Date: Saturday, Nov. 16
Kickoff Time: 4 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPNU

James Madison and Old Dominion meet on Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

James Madison vs Old Dominion Betting Trends

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James Madison vs Old Dominion Weather

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