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Iowa State vs. Houston Prediction, Odds, Pick & How to Watch NCAAF Week 5

The Iowa State Cyclones (3-0) and Houston Cougars (1-3) will face off in a Big 12 battle Saturday night. This game is set to kick off at TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas, at 7 p.m. ET and will be broadcasted on FS1.

Iowa State is currently a 14-point road favorite on the spread after what’s been a tough season for Houston. The Clones have beaten North Dakota, Iowa and Arkansas State so far in this new campaign.

This game has a total set at 43.5 points, as it’s projected to be a lower-scoring affair.

Let’s dive into my Iowa State vs. Houston prediction and my college football picks on Saturday, September 28.

Iowa State vs. Houston Prediction, Odds, Spread

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Spread

The Cyclones are favored over the Cougars. Iowa State enters as a -16 favorite.

Over/Under

I don’t have a bet on Saturday’s total of 42.5.

Moneyline

While I like Houston here, I don’t see value on the Cougars to win outright.

Pick

My Iowa State vs. Houston pick is on the Cougars to cover the spread at +14 or better.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Iowa State Cyclones vs. Houston Cougars Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/isu.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/hou.png”][/subheader]

Iowa State Cyclones Preview

At this point in the season, I feel like we haven’t yet learned much about Iowa State. It’s easily defeated each of its lower-level opponents before winning a one-point game against Iowa on the road.

The Cyclones had the No. 27 defense last season, according to SP+, and have moved up to 14th now. Through three games, they rank 76th in success rate allowed, 14th in finishing drives and ninth in explosiveness allowed.

Iowa State’s passing defense has been strong, ranking 40th in passing success rate allowed and 13th in passing PPA allowed. However, the rushing defense has left a bit to be desired, ranking 97th in rushing success rate allowed and 68th in rushing PPA allowed.

Offensively, it’s been the passing game carrying this team. The Cyclones rank 41st in passing success rate and 36th in passing PPA. They’re 101st in rushing success rate, 120th in rushing PPA, and 132nd in rushing explosiveness to this point.

Quarterback Rocco Becht has completed 68% of his passes this season for 743 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. He has a 0.24 EPA per drop back to this point and a 47% passing success rate.

Houston Cougars Preview

After two tough losses to begin the season against UNLV and Oklahoma, it appeared the Cougars rebounded in their third game with a 33-7 win over Rice.

However, they were completely shut out against Cincinnati a score of 34-0.

This team has definitely been going through some offensive struggles as they transition to Willie Fritz’s new system. The Cougars’ one decent-looking offensive game this year against Rice saw them have just a 13th-percentile offensive success rate.

Houston ranks just 119th in success rate and 81st in finishing drives this season. They rank 133rd in average field position, 90th in passing success rate, 124th in rushing success rate, 108th in passing PPA and 109th in rushing PPA.

No matter how you slice it, this offense has been downright bad.

Defensively, this team has actually been very good. It ranks seventh in success rate allowed and 32nd in finishing drives. Houston ranks ninth in passing success rate allowed and 24th in passing PPA allowed.

It’s also 20th in rushing success rate allowed and 26th in rushing PPA allowed. The Cougars have gone from 102nd in SP+ on defense last year to 84th now, so they’re seeing a steady rise.

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Iowa State vs. Houston Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Houston match up statistically:

Iowa State Offense vs. Houston Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 49 14
Line Yards 63 51
Pass Success 25 45
Havoc 19 61
Finishing Drives 18 53
Quality Drives 34 46
Houston Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 120 69
Line Yards 119 21
Pass Success 104 13
Havoc 131 58
Finishing Drives 127 11
Quality Drives 99 13
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 81 45
PFF Coverage 8 43
Special Teams SP+ 78 133
Middle 8 23 60
Seconds per Play 28.2 (80) 30.0 (117)
Rush Rate 53% (56) 56% (72)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How to Bet My Iowa State vs. Houston Pick” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

This pick feels gross, but I think Houston can keep this game within two touchdowns. The Cougars massively disappointed last weekend, but this defense has played well, and I believe it could keep Iowa State’s offense in check.

I don’t have much faith in the Houston offense against this Iowa State defense, however, so while I think Houston can cover, I’m not going to take it to win, as I expect this to be a fairly low-scoring game overall.

At 14.5 points, I like the Cougars and would take them down to +14. I don’t think it’s two touchdowns worse at home than the Cyclones.

Pick: Houston +14.5 (Play to +14)

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How to Watch Iowa State vs. Houston

Location: TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX
Date: Saturday, Sept. 28
Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: FS1

NCAAF Betting Trends for Houston vs. Iowa State

  • Iowa State has landed 87% of the bets and generated 96% of the money.
  • The over has taken 91% of the bets but just 14% of the cash.

Iowa State vs. Houston Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226755″ date=”2024-09-28″][/gameforecast]

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Cody Goggin

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