The Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3, 4-3 Big Ten) travel to New Jersey to play the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-4, 3-4) in what should be a very physical Week 13 matchup.
The Illini have won 3 of their past 5 against the Scarlet Knights, but Rutgers got the best of them in their last matchup in 2021. Can Illinois exact revenge 3 years later, or will Rutgers pull off the small upset at home?
Illinois enters this game as a small -1.5 road favorite with an over/under of 48 points. So, where does the betting value lie for this Big Ten battle?
Let’s take a look at my Illinois vs. Rutgers predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.
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- Illinois vs. Rutgers Pick: Under 48
My Rutgers vs. Illinois best bet is on both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Illinois vs. Rutgers Odds
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- Illinois vs. Rutgers Spread: Illinois +2.5 · Rutgers -2.5
- Illinois vs. Rutgers Over/Under: 46.5
- Illinois vs. Rutgers Moneyline: Illinois ML +110 · Rutgers ML -132
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Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Altmyer Leading the Way
Head coach Bret Bielema has changed the culture at Illinois. The Illini play a physical style with good defense while running the ball well offensively.
After a down year last year, he and this Illini team have responded well, and they look to continue to ascend in the Big Ten with wins over teams like Rutgers.
The Illinois offense has been something of a surprise this season, averaging 27.1 points per game with returning quarterback Luke Altmyer.
Altmyer may be one of the most improved players in college football this season, posting 18 touchdowns to three interceptions after struggling to take care of the football a season ago.
The Illini have faith in Altmyer, but they prefer to run the ball 55% of the time. The problem for the Illini is they rank 78th in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Rush Explosiveness, so the pressure is on Altmyer to make winning plays.
The passing game has not held this offense back, ranking 40th in Pass Success Rate and 25th in Pass Explosiveness. Altmyer and leading receiver Pat Bryant should be able to find some space this week to continue driving the ball downfield.
Defensively, the Illini do a pretty solid job slowing teams down, allowing 20.6 points per game.
This defense is the definition of a bend-don’t-break unit. It has been fantastic at limiting scoring, ranking 23rd in Points per Opportunity allowed. I would expect it to be ready to slow down this Rutgers attack.
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights Betting Preview: Trending Up?
Head coach Greg Schiano seems to be the right guy at Rutgers. He has gotten his teams to improve little by little each year, and he’ll need a few wins to continue that trend.
The Rutgers offense is very clearly a Schiano offense. It has a strong commitment to the run, taking to the ground 56%. This has helped pace Rutgers to 26.3 points per game on the season.
The key to this rushing success has been running back Kyle Monangai, who has rushed for over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns on the year.
Monangai has helped this ground game to a ranking of 66th in Rush Success Rate. This helps set up the passing game, which ranks 59th in Pass Success Rate and 44th in Pass Explosiveness with Athan Kaliakmanis under center.
Rutgers can make the big plays if it can establish the run, which it should be able to do here.
Defensively, Rutgers has held teams to 23.4 points per game with a strong emphasis on stopping opposing passing attacks. The Scarlet Knights rank 50th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 41st in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
The problem this defense has faced is trying to get off the field because it sits 13rd in Rush Success Rate allowed and 114th in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
The Knights will need to be better against the run, or the Illini will dominate the time of possession and beat Rutgers at its own game.
Rutgers vs. Illinois Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Rutgers and Illinois match up statistically:
Illinois Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 78 | 123 |
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| Line Yards | 60 | 91 |
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| Pass Success | 40 | 50 |
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| Havoc | 112 | 92 |
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| Finishing Drives | 55 | 56 |
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| Quality Drives | 31 | 49 |
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Rutgers Offense vs. Illinois Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 66 | 125 |
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| Line Yards | 80 | 132 |
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| Pass Success | 59 | 61 |
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| Havoc | 11 | 105 |
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| Finishing Drives | 75 | 37 |
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| Quality Drives | 69 | 61 |
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Rutgers Scarlet Knights” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/rut.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 7 | 41 |
| PFF Coverage | 41 | 63 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 14 | 95 |
| Middle 8 | 38 | 85 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (97) | 27.2 (69) |
| Rush Rate | 55% (70) | 56% (48) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How to Make My Illinois vs. Rutgers Bet” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
The Illini have the more complete offense while matching up better defensively when it comes to what Rutgers wants to do in the run game.
I figure both ground games will have success here, which will make this a low-scoring affair with the clock ticking throughout. Not to mention, it’s getting cold in the northeast, so I’ll play the under at 48.
Pick: Under 48
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Illinois vs. Rutgers Channel, How to Watch, Start Time, Location, Streaming” center=”true”][/subheader]
| Location: | SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Peacock |
Illinois will make the trip to Piscataway on Saturday, Nov. 23 to face Rutgers at 12 p.m. ET on Peacock.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Illinois vs. Rutgers Weather” center=”true”][/subheader]
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