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Illinois vs Purdue Odds, Prediction: How to Bet Big Ten Battle

Illinois vs Purdue Odds

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We have a battle in the Big Ten West between two teams that need a victory.

Balls aren’t even in the air in Week 5, and these two longtime rivals have already combined for five losses on the year.

Purdue entered 2023 in transition, with Ryan Walters taking over for Jeff Brohm and the team featuring a good amount of roster turnover.

Meanwhile, in Champaign, expectations were higher after a promising 2022, but the Illini have fallen twice to tough opponents — at home to Penn State and in Lawrence to the Jayhawks.

The line in this matchup has sputtered right around a pick’em, with each team being a favorite at some point in the week.

Let’s break down who’s better positioned to secure the victory in Illinois vs. Purdue.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Not many teams started 2023 with a more difficult schedule than Illinois.

Bret Bielema’s team opened with a pesky Toledo group that nearly beat the Illini in Champaign. They then had to hit the road to face a Kansas team playing at an elite level on offense, and that one didn’t end well. After that, it was the top-five ranked Penn State Nittany Lions visiting Memorial Stadium, which resulted in another loss.

I say all that to point out that this team has been tested early, and it’ll be stronger because of it.

Quarterback Luke Altmyer is playing better than his numbers, at least by my eye test. He’s suffered bad breaks with interceptions and costly drops. If there’s a get-right spot for this offense, it’s Saturday against a pedestrian Purdue defense.

One other thing to mention is the motivation angle. Purdue went into Champaign last year and beat the Illini, ultimately costing them a trip to Indy for the Big Ten Championship game. The Boilers represented the West instead.

Additionally, a year ago, Walters was the defensive coordinator of that stingy Illinois defense. When he left in the offseason for West Lafayette, he took a lot of critical personnel with him.

You better believe this game will have Bielema’s full attention.

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One of the first things Walters did when he took over the job in West Lafayette was import Texas quarterback transfer Hudson Card from the portal.

Card hasn’t played as well as Boiler fans would’ve hoped, but when you look at this team from top to bottom, he’s the least of its issues.

The Boilermakers’ defense can’t stop anybody right now. This unit ranks outside the top 90 nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed, Defensive Line Yards, Quality Drives and Havoc.

Purdue allowed at least 35 points in losses to Fresno State, Syracuse and Wisconsin, and all three games came at home.

To turn this thing around and have a chance on Saturday, Purdue must do a better job up front and stop the run.

A lack of playmakers is also prevalent for the Boilers on offense. There’s no Rondale Moore or David Bell for Card to throw the ball to on the outside and make plays.

The Boilers also don’t do a great job in pass protection, allowing opponents to get pressure with just their front four.

I expect this team to get better as the year goes on, but it’s not pretty right now.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Illinois and Purdue match up statistically:

Illinois Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 25 77
Line Yards 21 38
Pass Success 30 102
Havoc 112 67
Finishing Drives 40 127
Quality Drives 125 111
Purdue Offense vs. Illinois Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 101 111
Line Yards 88 126
Pass Success 59 64
Havoc 100 92
Finishing Drives 123 79
Quality Drives 64 111
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 48 126
PFF Coverage 71 103
Special Teams SP+ 63 109
Middle 8 113 119
Seconds per Play 24.6 (28) 24.7 (32)
Rush Rate 49.6% (106) 48.4% (91)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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With a short spread, this handicap comes down to who you believe will win.

I have more faith in Illinois than I do in the Boilermakers. Purdue has been a mixed bag through four weeks, and it’s fragile in the trenches.

If there’s one need-to-know about a Bielema-coached team, it will be physical and make you earn your yards up the middle.

Illinois is the better football team across the board, and when you toss in the motivation angle, I think you have to play the Illini.

Take the point if they’re there, or ride the Illini on the ML to get it done in West Lafayette.

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