The Houston Cougars (4-5, 3-3 Big 12) take on the Arizona Wildcats (3-6, 1-5 Big 12) on Friday night in Tucson, Arizona. The game kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET and can be seen live on FS1.
Houston won 2 straight over Utah and Kansas State before a well-deserved bye week. While the win over Utah isn’t as surprising given the Utes’ injuries and offensive struggles, the 24-19 upset over a ranked Kansas State team could certainly be a shot in the Cougars’ arms.
Arizona, meanwhile, has not lived up to expectations in head coach Brent Brennan’s first season in Tucson. The Wildcats have lost 5 in a row and are coming off a 56-12 drubbing at the hands of UCF.
Still, Arizona comes into this game as a -1.5 favorite with the over/under set at 46. So, where does the betting value lie?
Let’s dive into my Houston vs. Arizona predictions and college football picks for this Big 12 battle on Friday, November 15.
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- Houston vs. Arizona Pick: Houston ML +100
My Arizona vs. Houston best bet is on the Cougars to win outright, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Houston vs Arizona Odds, Betting Line
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- Houston vs Arizona Spread: Arizona -1.5, Houston +1.5
- Houston vs Arizona Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Houston vs Arizona Moneyline: Arizona ML -125, Houston ML +104
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Houston Cougars Betting Preview
Houston comes in off a bye while riding a two-game win streak. The Cougars have defeated Utah and Kansas State in back-to-back weeks as home underdogs.
Houston has found a renewed energy on defense, specifically up front.
The run defense has allowed just 90 yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry the last two weeks and should have success here against an Arizona offensive line that has been really bad several weeks in a row.
The Cougars are allowing just 133 yards per game on the ground, and the rush defense has been consistently solid outside of two performances against Iowa State and Kansas.
Arizona is running for just 115 yards per game, but the ground game seems to have gotten weaker as the season has progressed. The rush numbers have decreased five weeks in a row, cratering two weeks ago at UCF when the Wildcats ran the ball 25 times for five total yards.
The offensive line play has been poor from a pass-blocking perspective as well.
The Wildcats have surrendered 19 sacks on the season with 13 of those coming in the last three games. There have also been an abundance of negative plays that have limited Arizona’s ability to extend drives.
Arizona Wildcats Betting Preview
Arizona has been one of the more disappointing teams in the country this year, as the Wildcats come in losers of five straight games before a bye week last week.
The Wildcats have been largely non-competitive with three blowout losses in their last four games.
The offense has really struggled in conference play, averaging just 17 points per game while being being outgained by 71 yards per game in league play.
The run defense has been especially bad, surrendering 511 yards combined over the last two games while ranking just 99th nationally in Defensive EPA Per Rush for the season.
Arizona has been prone to allowing explosives on the ground as well, as the unit ranks just 92nd in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.
Offensively, Houston wants to run the football and will be seeking to establish the ground game early and often against this Arizona front seven. Houston has 90 offensive rush attempts in the last two weeks and has committed to the ground game.
I like the dual-threat element added by the quarterback switch to Zeon Chriss, who’s a solid runner. Arizona has struggled with mobile quarterbacks all season and will be up against it trying to contain this multi-faceted rushing attack.
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Arizona vs Houston Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona and Houston match up statistically:
Houston Offense vs. Arizona Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 129 | 78 |
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| Line Yards | 123 | 98 |
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| Pass Success | 110 | 92 |
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| Havoc | 132 | 91 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Arizona” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ari.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 133 | 128 |
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| Quality Drives | 84 | 103 |
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Arizona Offense vs. Houston Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 126 | 20 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Houston” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/hou.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 119 | 35 |
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| Pass Success | 90 | 79 |
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| Havoc | 92 | 49 |
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| Finishing Drives | 88 | 54 |
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| Quality Drives | 97 | 40 |
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Arizona Wildcats” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ari.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 75 | 123 |
| PFF Coverage | 67 | 99 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 126 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 88 | 91 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.9 (131) | 28.1 (91) |
| Rush Rate | 62% (28) | 44% (124) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How to Make My Houston vs Arizona Best Bet” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
We have two teams here on two different trajectories, so I’m going to take Houston in this game.
The Cougars have played really solid defense the majority of the way this year. The stop unit has yielded just 139 yards per game and has held four of their last five opponents under 21 points.
Houston ranks seventh nationally in Success Rate allowed and 13th in Defensive EPA Per Play and should have success here against a struggling Arizona offense.
The Wildcats have relied on the pass game and have a major weapon in Tetairoa McMillan, who has hauled in 63 passes for 1,066 yards and six touchdowns on the season. McMillan exploded against WVU back in October but has been otherwise contained in recent weeks.
The opposition has been able to create pressure on quarterback Noah Fifita, which has resulted in sacks or throwaways. This has severely limited the offense’s ability to get McMillan the football.
Houston is going to make this tough on Arizona as well, as the Cougars are excellent against the pass. They rank ninth nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and 20th in Passing Explosiveness surrendered.
We’re starting to see things come together for Houston in Year 1 under head coach Willie Fritz. This team has played well in three of its last four games and is starting to peek at the right time.
Take the Cougars on the moneyline to go on the road and grab another Big 12 win.
Pick: Houston ML +100
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Houston vs Arizona Channel, How to Watch, Location, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 15 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Houston heads to Tucson on Friday to take on Arizona at 10:15 p.m. ET on FS1.
Houston vs Arizona Betting Trends
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Houston vs Arizona Weather
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