The No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2, 6-2 SEC) meet the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1) in the Sugar Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 8:45 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Georgia has yet to play in this year’s CFP after earning a first-round bye with a 22-19 victory over Texas in the SEC Championship.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, toppled in-state rival Indiana in the first round, leaving little doubt in a 27-17 victory over the Hoosiers that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates.
Georgia enters as a -1.5 favorite with the over/under set at 45.5.
Let’s take a look at our Georgia vs. Notre Dame picks and college football predictions for the Sugar Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1.
Georgia vs. Notre Dame Odds
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- Georgia vs. Notre Dame Spread: Georgia +1 · Notre Dame -1
- Georgia vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 45.5 Total Points
- Georgia vs. Notre Dame Moneyline: Georgia ML -105 · Notre Dame ML -115
Editor’s Note: Wednesday’s Sugar Bowl between Notre Dame and Georgia has been postponed to Thursday night, according to a report from WSB-TV and Action Network’s Brett McMurphy.
The Sugar Bowl will be a brawl between two teams with elite defenses.
No. 2 seed Georgia heads to New Orleans to take on No. 7 seed Notre Dame. The Bulldogs are 2-point favorites on the spread with a 44-point over/under.
Points will be hard to come by, and this one will likely be decided late in the fourth quarter.
The injury to Georgia quarterback Carson Beck in the SEC Championship game makes the matchup even more fascinating, as the Dawgs will be rolling with Gunner Stockton, who will make his first career start.
Notre Dame lost stud defensive lineman Rylie Mills to a knee injury in the Indiana game, and Gabe Rubio will slide in to replace him.
Kirby Smart has been elite in these games during his tenure in Athens, while Marcus Freeman has the opportunity to secure his most significant win since taking over in South Bend.
The winner books a trip to the Orange Bowl to take on either Boise State or Penn State.
We polled our staff on their leans for the side and the total of this showdown.
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Georgia vs. Notre Dame Predictions, Best Bets
Georgia vs. Notre Dame Spread
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” firstfullname=”Georgia Bulldogs” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/uga.png” text=”-1.5″][/teammatchup] | [label bgcolor=”green”]3 Picks[/label] |
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” firstfullname=”Spread Coin Flip” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/mega-spread-coin-flip-icon.png” text=”Pass”][/teammatchup] | [label bgcolor=”green”]0 Picks[/label] |
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” firstfullname=”Notre Dame Fighting Irish” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nd.png” text=”+1.5″][/teammatchup] | [label bgcolor=”green”]5 Picks[/label] |
Our Spread Pick: Notre Dame +1.5
By John Feltman
Our Action Network staff is heavily leaning toward Notre Dame, and I agree. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Fighting Irish are +1.5 underdogs, but I personally think they will win the game outright.
It’s not because Georgia quarterback Carson Beck is out for the season, as I think the Irish would also be victorious over the Bulldogs even if he were suiting up.
The biggest key for the Irish is their offensive front against Georgia’s pass rush, which has been below average for most of the season.
Notre Dame ranks 21st in Havoc allowed, whereas Georgia is 74th in Havoc on defense. The Irish ground attack, led by Jeremiyah Love, should have opportunities to extend drives and control the clock, as the Bulldogs are a mediocre team at preventing Quality Drives.
The Irish sit 109th in seconds per play, and I wouldn’t expect them to change their game plan heading into the matchup.
I also love their defense going up against quarterback Gunner Stockton, who’s making his first career start.
Stockton was a highly-touted prospect out of high school, but nothing says “welcome to college football” like facing the No. 1 defense in Pass Success Rate allowed. The Irish also rank in the top five in Finishing Drives allowed and Quality Drives allowed.
It will be a tall task for Stockton to pull this off for the Bulldogs in his first career start. The Irish’s ground attack and strong defense will be too much for the Bulldogs to overcome.
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Georgia vs. Notre Dame Over/Under
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Over 45.5 |
[label bgcolor=”green”]2 Picks[/label] |
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Pass |
[label bgcolor=”green”]1 Pick[/label] |
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Under 45.5 |
[label bgcolor=”green”]5 Picks[/label] |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 45.5
By John Feltman
Our staff is aligned with taking under 44 in this game, and I will side with them again. As of Tuesday afternoon, some 45.5s remain in the market, so as always, be sure to shop around for the best number.
The Irish defense will cause many issues for the Bulldogs offense. Stockton is going to have a lot of obstacles to navigate against the best secondary in the country, which is loaded with future NFL talent.
The Irish are also one of the slowest teams in the country on offense and will continue to utilize their excellent rush attack. They’ll be able to bleed a lot of clocks by extending drives, so I don’t see a world where the Bulldog’s offense is explosive enough to contribute a lot of points toward the scoreboard.
I’d definitely suggest taking the under at 45 or better.
More Ways to Bet Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame ML +105 (Play to -105)
I like Notre Dame to break through here and book a trip to the semifinals to take on Penn State.
Irish quarterback Riley Leonard has been an elite runner all season, and mobile QBs have been one of the ways to exploit the Georgia defense this season.
Georgia Tech QB Haynes King had a ton of success with his legs against the Dawgs, and Leonard has a similar frame and has been elite in using his big body to find the end zone when ND gets near the goal line.
ND also possesses two elite running backs in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, and both are capable of breaking long ones at any given moment.
When Georgia has the ball, it will be relying on Gunner Stockton who will be making his first career start in the Sugar Bowl.
Expect the Dawgs to lean on running back Trevor Etienne heavily, but I think ND has the horses in the trenches to contain the Georgia backs.
Marcus Freeman has been pretty good in big games during his three-year head-coaching tenure, and Wednesday night is a chance for him to secure a first true signature win.
I think he does it, as ND moves onto south Florida.
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