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College Football Odds, Picks for Georgia vs. Auburn

Georgia vs. Auburn Odds

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The “Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry” between Georgia and Auburn is set for the 128th edition dating back to 1892.

In a series that’s nearly as old as the typewriter, the Bulldogs have won six straight and lead the series, 63-56-8.

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart will take his team on the road for the first time this season after allowing 35 points over the past two games to UAB and South Carolina.

The coach was complimentary of Jordan-Hare Stadium, as the hostile environment presents a challenge for Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck, who has never made a start away from Athens.

Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze was disappointed in his team’s execution through the air in a loss against Texas A&M. With a quarterback battle taking place since the summer, execution from under center has not been up to SEC level.

Now, the two-time defending national champion is coming to town, and the indecisiveness at quarterback will lead up to kickoff.

There’s plenty of intrigue despite the large point spread associated with the game.

Georgia is under new management from a coordinator and quarterback perspective, and the defense has yet to control the line of scrimmage and red zone like previous Bulldog teams.

For Auburn, the search for a mistake-free offense continues as the toughest defense on the schedule comes to town.

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Georgia detractors are sure to point to a strength of schedule that dips outside the top 100, but Beck has been fantastic under center to this point. The fourth-year quarterback has a 6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, averaging less than 1% for a turnover-worthy play rate.

Beck has been efficient in 12 attempts downfield, completing half of the passes in pressured pockets.

The Bulldogs’ ground attack is sure to be the focus against Auburn, as four different rushers have logged an explosive play. Daijun Edwards leads the pack with 15 first downs, but Kendall Milton has been the most explosive, averaging four yards after contact.

Georgia’s defense has yet to be tested despite already picking up an SEC victory over South Carolina. UGA ranks 123rd in Defensive Standard Downs Rate, meaning almost every snap comes against an opponent that’s behind schedule.

A mid-FBS grade in pass rush is to be expected, as the Bulldogs rarely send more than four defenders to create pressure.

While Georgia’s analytics are there against the pass, Auburn might have some success in a couple of areas. The Bulldogs rank 45th in Line Yards, as opposing rushing attacks have had spurts of success.

Through Week 4, Georgia has allowed 14 opponent drives to cross the 40-yard line into scoring position. Opponents have averaged 3.2 points per trip, which is just below the national average but nowhere near the Bulldogs’ standard.

With a limited sample of just eight opponent red-zone trips, six have resulted in a touchdown.

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Auburn’s inefficiencies at quarterback continued at College Station, prompting Freeze to get snaps for sophomore third-stringer Holden Geriner.

The numbers have been tepid for Robby Ashford and Payton Thorne, with the latter attempting to move the offense through the air.

Thorne hasn’t been as bad as the film indicates, generating a turnover-worthy play rate that’s better than his career average. Ashford does the majority of damage on the ground, rushing for all four of his touchdowns against UMass and Samford.

While the quarterbacks get the attention, it’s the play of the offensive line that has hindered Auburn.

The offensive line has allowed a whopping 29 tackles for loss and a pressure rate outside the top 100. Auburn ranks 115th in Havoc Allowed with continued issues at the line of scrimmage and in holding onto the football.

Explosiveness eludes Thorne in the passing game, and there’s a direct correlation to pressure. No player with a minimum of 75 dropbacks has a higher pressure-to-sack ratio than Thorne, as his mark of 52.4% is well beyond the next passer, Old Dominion’s Grant Wilson, at 38.5%.

There’s hope on the defensive side of the ball, which has generated one of the best ranks nationally against the pass. The Tigers rank top-10 defensively in Passing Success, coverage grading and limiting pass explosives.

Both Kayin Lee and DJ James rank top-20 in individual cornerback grading, totaling six forced incompletions.

However, Auburn is open for attack on the ground, with mid-FBS ranks in Line Yards and Stuff Rate. Texas A&M exposed this element in Week 4, averaging 7.1 yards per play in rushing attempts.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia and Auburn match up statistically:

Georgia Offense vs. Auburn Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 15 71
Line Yards 40 60
Pass Success 11 7
Havoc 6 59
Finishing Drives 21 24
Quality Drives 24 19
Auburn Offense vs. Georgia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 10 27
Line Yards 60 45
Pass Success 76 6
Havoc 115 42
Finishing Drives 50 51
Quality Drives 52 5
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 7 65
PFF Coverage 5 10
Special Teams SP+ 68 59
Middle 8 18 8
Seconds per Play 27.4 (78) 27.5 (80)
Rush Rate 48.3% (89) 62.2% (23)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Georgia has not looked the part of a two-time defending national champion thus far.

The offense struggled to come back from a 14-3 deficit against South Carolina, needing almost every possession in the second half to beat the Gamecocks by two scores. The defense is a shade of the national title team that limited TCU to just one score, allowing 35 points the past two weeks.

The Bulldogs have not played a murderer’s row to this point, but the case could be made that history is repeating itself. Both Kent State and Missouri put up consecutive 22-point performances last season before Georgia ripped through the remaining regular-season schedule.

The scoring splits by quarter tell another story. Georgia is averaging just a +2.5-point scoring differential in the first quarter versus +10.3 and +14 in the second and third quarters.

With a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, there are signs that scripted drives are unsuccessful. Once in-game adjustments are made on both sides of the ball, the Bulldogs have dominated. With a Middle 8 ranking in the top 20, mid-second quarter is generally a good time to pace a live wager on Georgia.

Auburn should have limited success running the ball with running back Jarquez Hunter with Ashford under center.

With the Tigers’ best defensive attribute coming in the form of two shutdown cornerbacks, the ground game will be the best chance of success for the Georgia offense.

Each team struggles to put points on the board in the first quarter of games, so the first-quarter and first-half totals are in scope for an under.

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Collin Wilson

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