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fresno state vs san jose state-prediction-odds-picks-nov 11

Fresno State vs San Jose State Odds & Pick: Target Late-Night Over/Under

Fresno State vs San Jose State Odds

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The San Jose State Spartans host the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday night.

Fresno State leads the series, 44-38-3, after winning the past two editions of this rivalry, and although the Bulldogs want to make it three in a row, San Jose State is a bit better than its 4-5 record indicates.

Here’s a closer look at the Fresno State vs. San Jose State odds, along with a pick for Saturday’s Mountain West college football matchup.

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Fresno State is having a great season and could still make its way into a New Year’s Six bowl. The 8-1 Bulldogs picked up Power 5 road wins over Purdue and Arizona State in their nonconference schedule and have since gone 4-1 in conference play.

Fresno State’s offense is leading the way.

The Bulldogs are scoring 34.0 points per game, and their passing attack, led by quarterback Mikey Keene, ranks 27th in Passing Success Rate. Even though he missed a game with injury, Keene is completing 67.5% of his passes for 2,238 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

For as good as Keene has played, it also helps to have a plethora of good wide receivers.

Fresno State’s top four wideouts are all consistent contributors, ranging from Erik Brooks with a team-leading 565 yards and five touchdowns, to Mac Dalena with 371 yards and two scores. Even tight end Tre Watson joins the party with 289 yards and four touchdowns.

The Bulldogs’ run game grades out at 123rd in Rushing Success Rate, but running back Malik Sherrod has emerged as Fresno State’s best back with 602 yards and six touchdowns.

Fresno is also having a very good defensive season. The Bulldogs are giving up 21.7 points per game, although they’ve allowed 30 points in two of their past three games.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”San Jose State Spartans” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/sjs.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/san-jose-state-spartans” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

San Jose State may be 4-5, but when you look under the hood, there are signs of encouragement.

For one, two of its losses were to USC and Oregon State, and the Spartans have bounced back with a 3-2 conference record. After losses to Air Force and Boise State, San Jose State caught fire with a 52-24 win over New Mexico, a 42-21 win over Utah State and a 35-0 shutout over Hawaii.

That’s a 28-point average margin of victory in those three games. Not bad for a 4-5 team, huh?

Spartans quarterback Chevan Cordeiro is one of the best college quarterbacks most have never heard of.

Cordeiro has thrown for 1,989 yards, 13 touchdowns and three picks. He also has 174 yards and three scores on the ground. One thing that stands out about Cordeiro is his ball placement.

Just look at this perfect throw against Utah State a few weeks ago:

It’s not just a one-man show though. Running back Kairee Robinson has been outstanding with 111 carries for 719 yards and 13 touchdowns, which equates to 6.5 yards per carry.

Robinson has rushed for at least 102 yards in each of the past three games and is a big reason why San Jose State ranks 38th in Rush Success Rate.

The Spartans don’t have the advantage on defense in this game. They’re 87th in Pass Success Rate Allowed, 112th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 126th in Defensive Havoc Rate, which makes sense because they’re 109th in the country with just 1.5 sacks per game.

San Jose State figured some things out over the past three games, but Fresno State is a whole different animal.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and San Jose State match up statistically:

Fresno State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 123 112
Line Yards 106 127
Pass Success 27 87
Havoc 20 126
Finishing Drives 17 102
Quality Drives 44 76
San Jose State Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 38 29
Line Yards 59 29
Pass Success 76 84
Havoc 54 29
Finishing Drives 94 27
Quality Drives 49 32
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 95 97
PFF Coverage 39 32
Special Teams SP+ 82 129
Middle 8 101 75
Seconds per Play 26.7 (63) 29.3 (108)
Rush Rate 42.5% (125) 51.0% (89)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Fresno State vs San Jose State” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

Most sportsbooks have San Jose State as a one-point favorite, which is interesting because Fresno State actually opened as a slight favorite.

With the line moving all over the place, the over/under is the bet to make. I love the thought of betting over 55 points because both of these offenses are capable of scoring 3o on any night, and even though Fresno State’s defense is decent, I don’t see it completely shutting down the Spartans’ offense.

The total is actually 54.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook, so you can find a different number there if you’d like. If not, I still like Over 55 points in this one.

Pick: Over 54.5 (Play to 55)

For extra value betting the over, use our FanDuel Promo Code and get bonus bets as a new user welcome.

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Mark Harris

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