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Florida State vs Miami Prediction, Picks, Odds & How to Watch NCAAF Saturday

Coming into the season, no one would’ve imagined that the Florida State Seminoles would be 1-6 and the worst team in the ACC.

Their struggles are unfathomable, and they’ve made this matchup with the Miami Hurricanes (7-0) — which was a marquee one circled before the season — a game that may not be on the main television for many college football bettors.

However, there are two big reasons to tune into this matchup. The first is to watch “The U.” Miami is back to being one of the nation’s premier programs. It’s undefeated and led by quarterback Cam Ward, a Heisman candidate.

The second is that there’s value on the odds board.

Miami is favored by 21 points on the spread with a total sitting at 54.5.

Below is my Florida State vs Miami predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.

Florida State vs Miami Prediction and Best Bet

  • Florida State vs Miami Best Bet: 1H Under 28.5

My Florida State vs Miami pick is on the first half under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Florida State vs Miami Odds

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  • Florida State vs Miami Spread: Miami -21.5
  • Florida State vs Miami Over/Under: 54.5 Total Points
  • Florida State vs Miami Moneyline: Miami -1800, Florida State +900

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Florida State Seminoles

I touched in the open just how disappointing this Florida State team has been, and its issues are primarily on the offensive side of the ball.

The Seminoles come into this game averaging just 15 points per game while ranking 129th in yards per night.

They’ve struggled in every facet, as they’re averaging just 2.5 yards per rush and completing 52% of their passes. It should come as no surprise that they’re 129th in Quality Drives and 133rd in Offensive Finishing Drives.

The Seminoles will have to contend with a very talented Hurricanes defense that’s shown it can contain the run, shut down the pass and force turnovers.

Yes, we’ve seen the Hurricanes give up some points this season, but FSU isn’t on par with the offenses that Miami has struggled with.

It’s hard to predict much offensive success for Florida State in this one.

Miami Hurricanes

Flipping to the other side of the ball, the Canes are one of the most talented offensive units in the country, and it starts with Ward under center.

Ward has been dissecting defenses, completing 69% of his passing while holding a 24-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He won’t face much resistance from this Florida State secondary, which ranks 116th in Passing Success Rate allowed and is 94th in PFF’s Coverage Grades.

While the Hurricanes are a pass-heavy offense, they can get it done on the ground, too. Oregon State transfer Damien Martinez has flourished, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

Really, all of this offensive production is spurred by the outstanding play of the offensive line. The Hurricanes are fifth in Offensive Line Yards and eighth in offensive Havoc.

They keep their ball carriers secure and give them room to work, and we should see plenty of that in this matchup.

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Miami vs Florida State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Florida State match up statistically:

Florida State Offense vs. Miami Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 111 42
Line Yards 118 22
Pass Success 129 12
Havoc 128 6
Finishing Drives 133 47
Quality Drives 129 70
Miami Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 3 65
Line Yards 5 48
Pass Success 6 116
Havoc 8 70
Finishing Drives 6 38
Quality Drives 1 107
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 55 101
PFF Coverage 94 27
Special Teams SP+ 1 28
Middle 8 103 18
Seconds per Play 26.3 (52) 28.6 (99)
Rush Rate 47% (116) 47% (107)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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It’s clear which side will succeed in this matchup, but Florida State’s lack of success will greatly impact the total.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Seminoles get shut down, which will put all the scoring on the Hurricanes’ backs.

While Miami should slice through the Florida State defense, it may not get off to the hottest of starts after having to battle last Saturday against Louisville. Its victory last week took a ton of focus, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Miami will look a bit slow in the early going here.

With that said, getting at least five scores in the first half is unlikely. Take the first-half under.

Pick: 1H Under 28.5 (Play to 28)

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Florida State vs Miami Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch

Location: Hard Rock Stadium
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26
Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN

Florida State duels Miami at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Miami vs Florida State Betting Trends

  • 67% of the bets and 63% of the money is on Miami covering the spread against Florida State.
  • 65% of the bets and 73% of the money is on the over.

Miami vs Florida State Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226946″ date=”2024-10-26″][/gameforecast]

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Doug Ziefel

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