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Florida vs Missouri Odds & Pick: Why to Bet Tigers

Florida Gators vs Missouri Tigers

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It’s time to take a look at the Florida vs. Missouri odds and find a pick in our college football betting preview for Saturday, November 18.

After dominating Tennessee, Missouri has now cracked the top 10 for the first time in over a decade and will look to keep it going when it hosts Florida on Saturday.

After losing three straight games, Florida is desperately searching for one more win to become bowl-eligible. The Gators defense hasn’t stopped anybody in these last three games, and it doesn’t look like there’s much hope going up against Brady Cook and Luther Burden III.

Missouri is firing on all cylinders right now, even with the loss to Georgia in which it really wasn’t outplayed by much.

The Tigers have their sights set on a New Year’s Day bowl game, so they better not get tripped up here against Florida or against Arkansas next week.

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Graham Mertz really hasn’t been that bad of a quarterback this season despite Florida being 5-5. Mertz is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns compared to two interceptions.

The reason he’s been so good is because he’s super accurate. His 80.6% adjusted completion rate ranks fifth nation (min. 100 pass attempts), and his Mertz’s 87.5% catchable throw rate is also top-10 in college football, per Sports Info Solutions.

It’s great to complete passes, but it’s meaningless without substance. Luckily, Mertz has both accuracy and substance, ranking 27th nationally in EPA.

The pressure is going to be on Mertz in this game because Florida has struggled to run the ball. The Gators are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry against FBS opponents this season.

The biggest problem with the Florida rushing attack is it seemx unable to break off big plays. The Gators are 40th in the nation in Success Rate but 80th in explosiveness. That’s not really an ideal scenario against a Missouri front seven that has been incredibly stout against the run.

The Florida defense has completely fallen off a cliff over the last three games. Against Georgia, Arkansas and LSU, Florida allowed 7.9 yards per play.

There’s also a pretty drastic difference between its defensive performances at home versus on the road. In Gainesville, the Gators are allowing only 5.5 yards per play, but that number balloons up to 7.7 on the road.

Florida’s main problems this season have come in the secondary. The Gators rank 113th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 104th in terms of PFF coverage grading. LSU’s Jayden Daniels threw for 372 yards on just 26 attempts last weekend, so Cook and Burden are most likely going to have a huge day on Saturday.

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The reason Missouri’s offense has been as effective as it’s been is because of Cook’s play at quarterback.

Cook has been going off this season, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt with 21 big-time throws and an adjusted completion percentage of 77.1%. Cook also ranks top-20 in EPA/Pass and positive play percentage, per Sports Info Solutions.

It helps when you have one of the best wide receivers in college football at your disposal. Burden leads college football with a PFF receiving grade of 90.7, as he has tallied 68 catches for 981 yards this season.

The biggest advantage Missouri will have in this game though is its ability to finish drives. Mizzou ranks 27th in that category offensively and is one of only two teams in college football to put points on the board in every single one of their red zone trips this season. On the other side, Florida ranks 92nd in Finishing Drives Allowed.

Missouri’s defense has been incredibly stout at stopping the run this season, ranking 13th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

It all starts up front. Missouri should be able to dominate this game in the trenches, as it’s 13th in Defensive Line Yards and 11th in Stuff Rate, while Florida sits outside the top 70 in those two categories offensively.

The worry here for Missouri is its secondary getting exposed. The Tigers been very average on the back end this season, ranking 70th in PFF’s coverage grade.

However, in the last two games, they’ve held both Carson Beck and Joe Milton under 8.0 yards per attempt, which is an encouraging sign.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and Missouri match up statistically:

Florida Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 40 13
Line Yards 71 13
Pass Success 36 57
Havoc 77 54
Finishing Drives 12 88
Quality Drives 17 61
Missouri Offense vs. Florida Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 51 19
Line Yards 94 79
Pass Success 10 113
Havoc 68 60
Finishing Drives 27 92
Quality Drives 37 91
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 78 59
PFF Coverage 104 70
Special Teams SP+ 9 70
Middle 8 49 9
Seconds per Play 28.8 (99) 27.1 (72)
Rush Rate 49.2% (101) 54.8% (55)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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This is a potential sell-high spot on Missouri, but the matchup is too good. With how bad Florida’s secondary has been this season, Cook and Burden should have a field day through the air.

If Florida is unable to run the ball, that means all of the pressure is going to be on Mertz to light up an improving secondary. The same thing happened to Tennessee last week in Columbia, as it ran for only 83 yards and had to put the ball in Milton’s hands way more often than it wanted.

Missouri’s ability to score efficiently when it gets into Florida’s territory is the biggest edge it has in this game. The Gators defense showed last weekend against LSU that they can’t stop good offenses when they cross the 40.

I have Missouri projected at -16.2, so I love the value on the Tigers at -11.

Pick: Missouri -11

Check out the latest bet365 bonus code offer before placing your bets on Mizzou.

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Brad Cunningham

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