There’s nothing like a Tobacco Road battle where the Duke Blue Devils (8-3, 4-3 ACC) travel across town to visit the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-7, 2-5).
Duke is coming off a close win against Virginia Tech, 38-21. Aside from a two-game losing stretch to SMU and Miami, the Blue Devils had an incredible season. Maalik Murphy, albeit throwing for three interceptions, had three passing touchdowns and threw for 336 yards.
It’s been three straight losses for the Demon Deacons after falling to Miami 42-14. It was an ugly day offensively for Wake Forest, with Hank Bachmeier only throwing for 86 yards. Demond Claiborne had an OK outing on the ground, rushing for 63 yards but only averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
Where does the betting value lie? Duke is a 4-point favorite on the spread with a 53.5-point over/under.
Read more for my Duke vs. Wake Forest predictions and college football picks.
Duke vs Wake Forest Game Odds
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- Duke vs Wake Forest Point Spread: Duke -3.5 (-105) · Wake Forest +3.5 (-115)
- Duke vs Wake Forest Total: Over/Under 53.5
- Duke vs Wake Forest Moneyline: Duke -165 · Wake Forest +140
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- Duke vs Wake Forest Pick: Duke -3.5 (Play to -6)
My Duke vs Wake Forest best bet is on the Blue Devils to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
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Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: A One-Dimensional Offense
Duke is building a fine program with a solid foundation piece in Murphy. Although he negatively made the news for an inappropriate gesture last week, he’s been a key reason for the Blue Devils’ success.
Although he hasn’t been the most efficient quarterback this season, completing only 58% of his passes, most of Duke’s offense has been through the air.
Eli Pancol and Jordan Moore have been critical to his success. Both average over 14 yards per reception and have 15 combined touchdowns.
The one red flag I see in Duke’s game is its run game. The Blue Devils don’t run the ball a ton, but when they do, it’s Star Thomas’ role and no one else’s. Thomas is a fine back, but I wouldn’t label him as a bell-cow back. In 199 carries, he only averages four yards per carry and only six touchdowns to show for it.
To make matters worse, Duke ranks in the bottom three in all run categories, such as Rush Success Rate, PPA and explosiveness. Wake Forest isn’t a dominant run-stopping program, but Duke has shown that it’s a one-dimensional offense.
Coach Manny Diaz has gotten a lot out of his defense, though. The Devils only allow 24.6 points per game, which is good for 57th in the country. That number would probably be lower had ACC giant Miami not stomped on them two weeks ago.
Linebacker Alex Howard and defensive end Wesley Williams are the studs in this pass rush, both accumulating 11 tackles for loss and a combined 11 sacks.
It’s hard to pick just one standout in the secondary. However, Terry Moore, Jaylen Stinson and Chandler Rivers have all caused problems for opposing quarterbacks, and I don’t see that stopping for this battle.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Preview: Can Wake Get Out of Its Way?
Ever since coming out of its second bye week this season, Wake Forest has experienced a great deal of hardship.
Bachmeier, especially, as prior to the bye, he was averaging 245 passing yards per game. Since Week 10, he’s only averaging 143—over 100 yards less than what he’s used to.
He has never been a gamebreaker, but he is efficient, sure. Most of this offense is run by Claiborne anyway, who should be getting more carries, especially since receiver Donovan Greene has been limited all season.
Wake is 120th in Rush Play Rate but 44th in Success Rate, 14th in Pass Play Rate and 88th in Success Rate.
So it’s clear that priorities aren’t straight in Winston-Salem. Claiborne is easily the play driver, but given Duke’s front-line dominance, it may be a long day for the junior running back.
I don’t foresee this defense giving Murphy a whole lot of issues. The Deacs have some solid interior linemen in Kevin Pointer and Jasheen Davis, but no one in the secondary is a major difference-maker.
Nick Andersen and Jamare Glasker are fine players and could give Murphy some grief. But with how much he throws, it may be too much.
Duke vs Wake Forest Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Wake Forest match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 131 | 123 |
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| Line Yards | 132 | 117 |
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| Pass Success | 74 | 122 |
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| Havoc | 68 | 127 |
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| Finishing Drives | 99 | 92 |
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| Quality Drives | 131 | 121 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wake Forest” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wf.png”][/teamlogo]
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Wake Forest Offense vs. Duke Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 50 | 68 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wake Forest” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wf.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 57 | 35 |
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| Pass Success | 72 | 7 |
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| Havoc | 49 | 3 |
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| Finishing Drives | 121 | 19 |
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| Quality Drives | 89 | 27 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Duke” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/dukd.png”][/teamlogo]
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Wake Forest Demon Deacons” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wf.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 70 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 6 | 70 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 81 | 40 |
| Middle 8 | 65 | 51 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.0 (26) | 24.1 (13) |
| Rush Rate | 46% (109) | 52% (92) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How To Bet My Duke vs Wake Forest Pick & Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
I’m surprised to see the spread so low in this matchup.
I don’t think Wake can hold a candle to Duke, and the Deacs are 1-5 in Allegacy Federal Credit Stadium this season. The Blue Devils aren’t the greatest on the road, but with a short bus ride across town, it’s not that much of a trip.
Duke isn’t a perfect program, but Wake Forest is in worse shape. While positive regression is looming, Bachmeier faces a very strong defensive corps that may cause several issues for him.
I’m taking the points with the Blue Devils, fading the Demon Deacons hard, and playing that to -6.
Pick: Duke -3.5 (Play to -6).
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Duke vs Wake Forest Channel, Start Time, Streaming” center=”true”][/subheader]
| Location: | Allegacy Federal Credit Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Duke vs Wake Forest will be played at Allegacy Federal Credit Stadium in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ACC Network.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Wake Forest vs Duke Betting Trends” center=”true”][/subheader]
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Wake Forest vs Duke Weather” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”227265″ date=”2024-11-30″][/gameforecast]
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