Action Network

duke blue devils vs middle tennessee blue raiders-prediction-pick-odds-ncaaf-saturday september 21

Duke vs Middle Tennessee Predictions, Picks, Odds, How to Watch for College Football Saturday

Duke (3-0) plays Middle Tennessee State (1-2) on Saturday, September 21, at 4:00 p.m. ET.

The game can be seen live on ESPNU.

The Blue Devils have edged Northwestern, 26-20, and UConn, 26-21, in the last two games to remain undefeated.

On the other side of the field, Middle Tennessee has lost two straight, getting pummeled by Ole Miss, 52-3, before allowing Western Kentucky to score 49 points.

Duke is a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 52. The Blue Devils are also -610 on the moneyline.

Here’s my Duke vs Middle Tennessee prediction for College Football Week 4 on Saturday, September 21.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Duke vs Middle Tennessee Picks, Predictions” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/dukd.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/mts.png” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]

  • Duke vs Middle Tennessee Pick: Duke Team Total Over 33.5

My Duke vs Middle Tennessee best bet is on the Blue Devils team total over with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Duke vs Middle Tennessee Odds, Spread, Lines

[gamematchup league=”NCAAF” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/dukd.png” awayname=”Duke” awayslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/duke-blue-devils” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/mts.png” homename=”Middle Tennessee” homeslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/middle-tennessee-blue-raiders” date=”Saturday, Sept. 21″ time=”4 p.m. ET” network=”ESPNU” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awayText=”-14.5″ col1awayLine=”-110″ col1homeText=”+14.5″ col1homeLine=”-110″ col2awayText=”51″ col2homeText=”51″ col2awayLine=”-110o / -110u” col2homeLine=”-110o / -110u” col3awayText=”-600″ col3homeText=”+450″ col3awayLine=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”bet365″ bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/860991_Bet365ALT.png” bookreviewslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″][/gamematchup]

  • Duke vs Middle Tennessee Point Spread: Duke -14.5 · Middle Tennessee +14.5
  • Duke vs Middle Tennessee Total: Over/Under 51
  • Duke vs Middle Tennessee Moneyline: Duke -600 · Middle Tennessee +450

_InlineAdBlock

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Duke Football vs Middle Tennessee Football Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/dukd.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/mts.png”][/subheader]

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview: Passing Attack Looks Good

Duke enters Saturday after a closer-than-expected 26-21 win over UConn last week.

The Blue Devils jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but the Huskies stormed back to take the lead on a pick-six in the third quarter. Duke ultimately won the third quarter 9-0 to close the game.

Quarterback Maalik Murphy looked good, going 28-for-43 passing with 267 yards and three touchdowns. Running back Star Thomas picked up 122 rushing yards on 22 attempts.

The Blue Devil defense played well in the second half, with all seven UConn possessions ending scoreless.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: Defense a Big Question Mark

Middle Tennessee State hosts Duke this week after losing to Western Kentucky, 49-21.

This “100 miles of hate” installment featured plenty of Hilltopper fireworks as the Blue Raider defense surrendered 631 yards. Western Kentucky backup quarterback Caden Veltkamp was 27-for-30 passing with 398 yards and five touchdowns in relief of injured T.J. Finley.

The MTSU defense had no answer, as Western Kentucky scored on almost every possession and never punted.

The bright spot on offense for MTSU was the play of quarterback Nicholas Vattiato, who was 23-for-31 passing with 456 yards and three touchdowns.

[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/509930_NCAAFArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for college football bettors” firstupsell=”The best NCAAF betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/4fb1273b”][/appcard]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Duke vs Middle Tennessee” subtext=”Matchup Analysis” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/dukd.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/mts.png”][/subheader]

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:

Duke Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 133 130
Line Yards 121 104
Pass Success 39 131
Havoc 54 117
Finishing Drives 117 120
Quality Drives 111 132
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Duke Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 129 27
Line Yards 122 13
Pass Success 48 23
Havoc 102 2
Finishing Drives 123 19
Quality Drives 27 28
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 118 90
PFF Coverage 26 107
Special Teams SP+ 21 78
Middle 8 99 128
Seconds per Play 24.3 (17) 30.3 (120)
Rush Rate 44% (114) 43% (124)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How To Make College Football Picks For My Duke vs Middle Tennessee Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

Duke could start 4-0. Looking ahead to the rest of the schedule, the Blue Devils need this win to secure a Bowl appearance.

That said, the Blue Devils have some big advantages on Saturday.

Murphy looks good, and Middle Tennessee ranks bottom-five nationally in EPA per Dropback, Pass Success Rate, and Standard Downs Success Rate allowed.

Any aerial success from Murphy will help open up the Blue Devil’s rushing attack, which will plow into a fragile Middle Tennessee defensive line.

Conversely, Middle Tennessee could struggle against Duke’s aggressive, Havoc-based defense, which does well to limit explosive plays – the Blue Devils have allowed only five 20-plus-yard plays through three games.

The Blue Raiders rank among the bottom third of FBS teams in Havoc allowed and cannot run the football – they’re averaging 2.5 yards per carry with one 20-plus-yard rush. Expect quick Middle Tennessee possessions that set up short fields for Duke.

Duke is also running at a much quicker tempo than previously. The Blue Devils ran 82 plays against UConn.

If they run even close to that pace on Saturday, they’ll pile up yards and score in bunches against a Blue Raider defense that allows over 40 points and 540 yards per game.

Pick: Duke Team Total Over 33.5

_InlineAdBlock

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”How to Watch Duke vs Middle Tennessee Live: Streaming, Channel, Time” center=”true”][/subheader]

Location: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
Date: Saturday, Sept. 21
Kickoff Time: 4 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPNU

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Duke vs Middle Tennessee Betting Trends” center=”true”][/subheader]

  • Duke is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS.
  • Middle Tennessee is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS.

[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Duke vs Middle Tennessee Weather” center=”true”][/subheader]

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226679″ date=”2024-09-21″][/gameforecast]

_InlineAdBlockRestart

Posted

in

by

Joshua Nunn

Tags:

, , , , ,