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florida state seminoles vs duke blue devils-college football-odds-predictions-picks-betting-ncaaf-acc-october 21

Florida State vs Duke Odds, Prediction & Picks | How to Bet ACC Clash

Florida State vs Duke Odds

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Two of the last three remaining undefeated teams in ACC play meet Saturday, as No. 4 Florida State hosts No. 16 Duke in Tallahassee.

Despite being down their starting quarterback, the Blue Devils picked up a huge 24-3 win over NC State in their last game. The question surrounding this game is whether or not Riley Leonard is going to play. If he does, it would be a huge boost to Duke and give it a real shot at pulling off an upset.

Florida State has already passed its two biggest tests of the season, beating LSU and Clemson. Now, it’s in a perfect position to go undefeated and potentially reach the College Football Playoff.

The Seminoles destroyed Syracuse, 41-3, in their last game and will be looking to do the same here to pick up another resume-building win.

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Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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The Florida State offense has been good, but it’s pretty reliant on explosive plays. The Seminoles are second in the country in explosive plays but 48th in Success Rate.

That problem came full circle in their game against Clemson, as the Tigers didn’t allow them to pick up those explosive plays. In turn, Florida State had a Success Rate of just 37% for the game.

The rushing attack has broken off some big plays, but ranks of 99th in Success Rate, 88th in Offensive Line Yards and 47th in EPA/Rush is concerning. Duke’s front seven has struggled to stop the run, so I’m guessing you’ll see a high rush rate from the Seminoles on Saturday night.

Quarterback Jordan Travis hasn’t really played to the level that he did last season. He’s currently sitting 26th in EPA/Pass and has a Positive EPA per Play percentage of just 45.5%, which ranks outside the top 60.

He has Florida State sitting at 42nd in Passing Success Rate, and now he’s going to face one of the best secondaries in the country that held Notre Dame’s Hartman to just 222 yards passing and no touchdowns on 30 attempts.

The Florida State defense has been solid this season. It’s struggled a bit versus the run, especially giving up explosive plays, ranking 110th in rushing explosiveness. However, it’s still inside the top 50 in EPA/Rush Allowed and Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

The Seminoles rank top-25 in both Finishing Drives Allowed and Quality Drives Allowed, mainly because of a secondary that’s allowing only 6.6 yards per attempt and ranks 16th in EPA/Pass Allowed.

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This game really comes down to Leonard’s status for the Duke offense.

He was on the field warming up against NC State but ultimately did not play. Head coach Mike Elko keeps saying he’s day-to-day, and there are major question marks on how effective he would actually be if he does play.

He badly injured his ankle against Notre Dame and was noticeably limping in warmups against NC State. He already has carried the ball 28 times in five games and is a big part of the RPO and zone read game, so if he’s not going to be effective as a runner, that’s a problem because there are questions about Duke’s ability to protect him.

Leonard is typically pretty good at escaping the pocket and either running or throwing outside the pocket, but he’s going to be in trouble if he can’t do that in this game.

Granted, it’s a small sample size, but in 21 dropbacks in which he’s been pressured in the pocket, he has a completion percentage of just 33.3% and is averaging 3.1 yards per attempt with a -0.90 EPA/Pass.

So, if Leonard doesn’t play, that means freshman Henry Belin IV is going to get the start after attempting only 12 passes in the win against NC State.

The Duke secondary has been outstanding this season and has faced some pretty good quarterbacks. Duke has the best coverage grade of any team in college football, per PFF, allowing only 5.0 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.

It has shut down Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman, so it should have a solid chance of shutting down Travis as well.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Florida State match up statistically:

Duke Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 69 47
Line Yards 55 36
Pass Success 18 15
Havoc 31 26
Finishing Drives 42 25
Quality Drives 36 25
Florida State Offense vs. Duke Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 99 70
Line Yards 87 98
Pass Success 42 3
Havoc 7 34
Finishing Drives 17 6
Quality Drives 27 4
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 60 89
PFF Coverage 1 23
Special Teams SP+ 86 1
Middle 8 42 1
Seconds per Play 29.1 (105) 27.4 (76)
Rush Rate 58.9% (24) 50.8% (78)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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The pace of this game should be pretty slow with Duke ranking outside the top 100 in seconds per play and Florida State playing at a below-average pace as well.

This really comes down to Leonard’s availability. If he’s available, I highly doubt he’s going to be 100% and be able to move like he did before the high ankle sprain. If he doesn’t play, Belin is a limited passer and will make Duke one-dimensional.

The flip side is that Florida State has advantages on the ground, even if it’s struggling from a Success Rate standpoint.

Even though Travis is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country, throwing on this Duke secondary hasn’t been easy for anyone this season. If the Seminoles keep it on the ground, the clock will continue to move.

With the pace being slow and both teams likely to feature their ground game quite often, I like the value on under 49.5 points.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Under 49.5 ” linktext=”Bet the Under Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400353789&selectionId=7017917&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Brad Cunningham

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