College football PRO Systems strung together a full day of betting Saturday. Who’s in?
Week 5 predictions Saturday from our backtested, situational models feature a whopping 11 matching picks across these strategies:
- Fading Teams in Awful Spots
- Top Predictions for Weather Games
- Best Picks for Late-Night Matchups
One PRO System flagged teams in a situation which they’ve only covered 41% of the time, so we’re betting against them.
Another key angle spotlighted a bunch of windy games to capitalize on.
Finally, a red-hot trend from our college football researcher springs us into the late hours of Saturday night for an all-day betting affair.
Let’s go!
College Football Week 5 Predictions: Strategies, Key Angles for Saturday
Betting Strategy No. 1: Fading Teams in Awful Spots
The first PRO System at play is one of my favorites, titled “Scoring Streak Fade.” Here, we’re betting against teams in awful situational spots, backed by key insights.
When a team scores fewer than 10 points and then is marked the betting favorite in the following game, the side has only covered the spread 41% of the time since we started tracking.
Four teams put up single-digit points and are favored in Week 5: Kansas State, Ohio, Miami (OH), and Wake Forest. Therefore, taking their opponents against the spread has historically produced a 59% win rate.
At the time of writing, these four teams are successful matches Saturday of Week 5.
Scoring Streak Fade Picks
- Oklahoma State to Cover (vs. Kansas State)
- Akron to Cover (vs. Ohio)
- UMass to Cover (vs. Miami OH)
- Louisiana to Cover (vs. Wake Forest)
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Betting Strategy No. 2: Top Predictions for Weather Games
Weather’s a topic with Hurricane Helene’s unfortunate trajectory.
Utilizing the Windy Unders PRO System, we glean important insights. This Action PRO model focuses specifically on betting the under in college football games where wind speeds range from 13 to 34 miles per hour. Historically, this system boasts a 58% success rate.
Completely removing rain, noise and other irrelevant betting factors, four games are a match for windy games and under picks Saturday at the time of writing. Forecasts will be updating, but these are the picks to monitor.
Windy Unders Picks:
- Nebraska vs. Purdue Under
- San Diego State vs. Central Michigan Under
- TCU vs. Kansas Under
- Air Force vs. Wyoming Under
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Betting Strategy No. 3: Best Picks for Late-Night Matchups
A late-night trend dug up by our betting researcher Evan Abrams continues to win at a solid rate.
Abrams found that entering the 2024 season, games kicking off at 10 p.m. ET or later typically go under the total. Since 2017, all games in the late windows (10 p.m. or later), cashed better than 57% under the total.
In Week 2, late-night game unders went 6-2.
In Week 3, they went 2-0.
Last weekend, both late-night games finished under the total — an attractive 10-2 run entering Week 5.
Here are the three college football games kicking off at 10 p.m. ET or later in Week 5, with recommended picks under the total.
Late-Night Picks:
- Washington State vs. Boise State Under
- Arizona vs. Utah Under
- Oregon vs. UCLA Under
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