Upset picks, big weather edges and late-night action: Sounds like a fun card of college football Week 4 predictions.
Those are exactly the strategies and key angles we’re exploiting for Saturday’s best bets.
Our moneyline PRO System (9-3, 75%) has been nailing upsets, while also bagging a bunch of plus-money winners.
Meanwhile, we have two separate betting models revealing important insights on spread and over/under predictions this weekend — in huge games.
Check out these nine picks for Saturday college football Week 4, using three premium trends from PRO and our expert insights.
College Football Week 4 Predictions: Strategies, Key Angles for Saturday
Betting Strategy No. 1: Top Upset Picks
*All picks listed first, bolded
We have to start with six upset predictions and which teams could shake things up in Week 4. Our red-hot moneyline PRO System has netted a winning week in three straight slates.
Overall, “Small Visiting Dogs” pinged a bunch of upsets for Saturday of college football Week 4.
If a road team is 0-4 against the spread and the over/under is 46 or above, betting on the underdog for an outright victory has been the best way to go.
Predicted high-scoring games tend to add increased variance, which bolsters the case for moneyline bets (the team to win outright) on underdogs. They’ve won 51% of the time — an excellent rate given all the plus-money prices.
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These six underdogs in Week 4, sorted by gametime, check the boxes. We’ve included moneyline prices in parentheses.
Small Visiting Dogs Picks:
- Kansas (+110) vs. West Virginia
- Houston (+140) vs. Cincinnati
- Arizona State (+115) vs. Texas Tech
- Arkansas (+125) vs. Auburn
- Tulsa (+130) vs. Louisiana Tech
- Baylor (+105) vs. Colorado
Betting Strategy No. 2: Best Weather Picks
Weather is a factor Saturday, particularly wind.
Therefore, our “Windy Unders” PRO System is live on the Arizona State vs. Texas Tech under in Week 4.
This PRO System alerts bettors to take the under whenever winds range from 13-34 mph. All previous picks have gone under the total 58% of the time, across more than 1,000 previous bets.
Lubbock is expecting extreme winds and gusts, which could top out at north of 30 mph.
Windy Unders Picks:
- Arizona State vs. Texas Tech Under
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Betting Strategy No. 3: How to Bet Late-Night Games
Our researcher Evan Abrams noted before the season that late-night college football games were producing lower-scoring games than market expectations.
Per Abrams, college football games kicking off at 10 p.m. ET or later since 2017 were 202-148 (57.7%) to the under entering 2024.
That trend’s been hot lately. Eight games kicked off late in Week 2, and six went under the total. Both late-night games last weekend went under as well.
Here are the two games which fit Abrams’ “Offensive Nightmares” PRO System, which suggests bets on the games under the total.
Offensive Nightmares Picks:
- Kansas State vs. BYU Under
- Northern Iowa vs. Hawaii Under
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