The top betting tips for college football Week 12 feature fading teams in letdown spots, upset model picks, and more.
We’re covering three separate PRO System strategies which apply to situational angles. Overall, three tips for Saturday include a whopping eight matching picks from our proprietary betting data for college football Week 12.
Games range from high-profile clashes like No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Georgia to mid-major toss-up games with oodles of value on the moneyline.
College Football Week 12 Predictions: Tips, Strategies, Picks Saturday
Betting Tip No. 1: Fading Teams in Letdown Spots
The first PRO System we’re analyzing for Saturday of college football Week 12 revolves around teams in hangover spots — and exploiting them against the spread.
Claiming when a team will suffer a hangover, or emotional letdown, is oftentimes subjective. Our winning proprietary trends show a clear spot when to bet against teams that will likely underperform against the closing betting line.
The “Scoring Streak Fade” works like this: Home favorites a week after scoring less than 10 points are historically awful against the spread.
These teams only cover about 41% of the time, giving an edge to their opponents. Three home teams in Week 12 are favored right after laying a dud last week: Temple, Georgia State, and Auburn. Bettors should perhaps proceed with caution if rushing to bet any of those three.
Scoring Streak Fade Picks:
- Florida Atlantic to cover (vs. Temple)
- Arkansas State to cover (vs. Georgia State)
- UL Monroe to cover (vs. Auburn)
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Betting Strategy: Top Predictions for Ranked Matchups
After covering three, low-profile model picks, let’s transition to games involving top-25 teams: No. 24 Missouri vs. No. 23 South Carolina and No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Georgia.
History says that when two ranked teams meet and the home team is -3 or more, they cover 58% of the time. This spot bodes well for both the Gamecocks and Bulldogs.
Missouri is attracting other PRO Systems during the betting cycle, so we will stick with the one: Georgia against the spread.
When a “Ranked Matchups” pick is an SEC night game, the home team is 15-5 ATS the last 20.
According to our legendary researcher Evan Abrams, Georgia is 12-3 SU and 9-6 ATS after a loss under Kirby Smart.
Ranked Matchups Picks:
- Georgia to Cover (vs. Tennessee)
Betting Strategy: Best Upset Picks for Week 12
If you’re into betting underdogs with legit chances to upset their opponents, PRO Systems highlight a place to start.
Our “Small Visiting Dogs” model works like this: If an unranked road team is +1 to +4 against the spread and the over/under is north of 46, the visiting team has won the game outright 51% of the time.
This is important because underdogs of +1 to +4 feature plus-money prices; even if the system regressed to a 50% win rate, bettors are collecting a ton of excess profit over the long haul using this as a guide.
Four unranked road teams in Week 12 are between +1 and +4 against the spread alongside a full-game total higher than 46, and therefore are historically good bets on the moneyline (to win outright): Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Arkansas State, and Kansas.
Small Visiting Dogs Picks:
- Florida Atlantic ML (vs. Temple)
- Michigan State ML (vs. Illinois)
- Arkansas State ML (vs. Georgia State)
- Kansas ML (vs. BYU)
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